Antofagasta PLC Reports Record EBITDA of $5.2B for 2025, 52% Increase, and Recommends 48¢ Final Dividend

Record EBITDA, fatter margins and a bigger dividend from Antofagasta

Antofagasta has posted a cracking set of 2025 numbers. Revenue rose 30% to $8,620.3 million and EBITDA jumped 52% to a record $5,201.9 million, lifting the EBITDA margin to 60.3% (up nine percentage points). Underlying EPS more than doubled to 129.3 cents. The Board has recommended a 48.0 cent final dividend, taking the full-year dividend to 64.6 cents – a 50% payout of underlying earnings, in line with policy.

The year was powered by stronger realised commodity prices, solid cost control and a big contribution from by-products (gold and molybdenum). Despite stepping up investment to a peak $3,684.5 million, leverage remains sensible with net debt/EBITDA at 0.53x and cash and liquid investments of $4,909.9 million.

Quick take: the headlines investors care about

What drove the jump in profits: pricing, volumes and by-product tailwinds

The average realised copper price increased 18% to $4.93/lb, helped by $601.7 million of positive provisional pricing adjustments as year-end prices finished well above prior periods. Copper sales volumes rose 3.6% to 629,000 tonnes, and treatment and refining charges fell sharply to $20.3 million (2024: $185.3 million).

By-products did a lot of heavy lifting. By-product revenue rose $614.9 million to $1,628.1 million, led by gold (211,400 oz sold; realised price $3,734.9/oz) and molybdenum (15,300 tonnes sold). This mix pulled Group net cash costs down 27% to $1.19/lb despite broadly steady pre-credit cash costs at $2.38/lb. The Competitiveness Programme added a further $115 million of savings and productivity gains.

Capex has crested; growth is fully funded and on schedule

Investment peaked at $3,684.5 million in 2025 as Antofagasta pushed ahead with its Centinela Second Concentrator and key enabling projects at Los Pelambres (desalination and concentrate pipeline/El Mauro works). Management says projects remain on time and on budget and are expected to deliver 30% production growth over the medium term.

On funding, the Group tied up a $2.0 billion long-term package for Los Pelambres’ water infrastructure and completed a corporate bond issuance, while Los Pelambres also placed $1,550 million of 20-year private notes. Net result: the current growth programme is fully funded, and liquidity looks robust.

Mine-by-mine: where the gains came from

Centinela – concentrate-led growth, lower net cash costs

• EBITDA: $2,234.2 million (2024: $1,130.3 million)
• Copper production: 240,400 tonnes (+7%); concentrate +43% to 174,300 tonnes; cathodes -35% to 66,100 tonnes
• Net cash costs: $0.75/lb (-53%)
• Capex: $2,478.1 million, including $1,327.1 million on the Second Concentrator Project

Centinela was the star, with higher grades and throughput in concentrates driving volume and margin. Strong gold by-product credits amplified the cost improvement.

Los Pelambres – softer copper, stronger by-products

• EBITDA: $2,548.0 million (2024: $1,861.2 million)
• Copper production: 295,300 tonnes (-8%) on maintenance, harder ore and lower grades
• Molybdenum +48% to 12,400 tonnes; gold +18%
• Net cash costs: $0.82/lb (-35%); pre-credits $2.21/lb (+6%)
• Capex: $1,070.5 million, including $500.5 million on Growth Enabling Projects

Volumes eased at Pelambres, but higher by-products and gold prices more than offset, keeping net unit costs low.

Antucoya and Zaldívar – mixed picture

• Antucoya EBITDA: $327.0 million; production 81,200 tonnes (+1%); cash costs $2.82/lb (+11%) on labour and stripping
• Zaldívar attributable EBITDA: $61.8 million; production 36,700 tonnes (-8%); cash costs $3.44/lb (+14%)

Antucoya ticked over with modest volume growth but higher unit costs. Zaldívar’s unit costs remained elevated; the May 2025 EIA approval is a key step toward its mine life extension and water transition options.

2026 guidance: steady volumes, disciplined costs

• Copper production: 650,000-700,000 tonnes
• Gold: 215,000-235,000 ounces; molybdenum: 12.5-14.0 thousand tonnes
• Cash costs before by-product credits: $2.30-$2.50/lb; net cash costs: $1.15-$1.35/lb
• Capex: $3.4 billion (excludes Zaldívar); capex expected to decline in 2027

Management expects copper production to build quarter-on-quarter through 2026, with by-product credits maintained at robust levels.

Cash, debt and tax: the plumbing

Operating cash flow rose 30% to $4,252.9 million, partly offset by a $773.6 million working capital outflow due to higher year-end receivables at elevated copper prices. The Group ended with $4,909.9 million of cash and liquid investments and $7,659.4 million of borrowings and other financial liabilities, leaving net debt of $2,749.5 million.

The effective tax rate was 36.2% before exceptional items (34.4% including), with $31.0 million of the new Chilean royalty’s ad-valorem element recorded in operating costs at Los Pelambres. A $54.5 million exceptional deferred tax credit was recognised, related to the Group’s Buenaventura investment.

Sustainability notes: safety, water and credentials

• No fatalities in 2025 and a lost time injury frequency rate below 1.0; HPIFR improved to 0.04
• All four operations certified under the Copper Mark; full compliance with the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management across operating impoundments
• 100% renewable electricity across mining operations; hydrogen-powered locomotive trial in Antofagasta
• Los Pelambres desalination expansion to 800 l/s expected operational in 2027; Centinela and Antucoya already on 100% raw seawater

Positives, risks and what I’m watching next

Why I like it

• Record EBITDA and a 60.3% margin put Antofagasta near the top of pure-play copper peers on profitability.
• Dividend discipline is intact: 50% payout of underlying EPS, with a 48.0 cent final proposed ($473.2 million).
• Growth projects are on time, on budget and fully funded, with capex expected to ease after 2026.
• By-product leverage is paying off, compressing net cash costs to $1.19/lb.

What could bite

• Copper price sensitivity is material: a 10% move would have impacted 2025 EBITDA by approximately $662.7 million.
• Operational mix: Los Pelambres volumes dipped on maintenance and harder ore; Zaldívar’s unit costs are high.
• Working capital swings at high copper prices can weigh on cash conversion.
• Tax and royalty drag is meaningful; the effective tax rate was 36.2% before exceptionals, and royalty exposure will evolve across assets over time.
• Minera Centinela tax assessments are in process; management expects its position to be upheld and has made no provision.

Jargon buster (30 seconds)

• EBITDA: earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation – a proxy for operating cash profits.
• Cash costs: unit operating costs per pound of copper. “Net cash costs” deduct by-product credits (e.g. gold, moly) from gross cash costs.
• Provisional pricing: sales are initially priced then adjusted to the average market price a few months later; this drove $601.7 million of positive revenue adjustments in 2025.

Bottom line: quality earnings, funded growth, fair balance of risk and reward

This is a high-quality result. Pricing tailwinds helped, but execution mattered too: costs were kept in check, by-product credits did their job, and big-ticket projects are tracking to plan. The final dividend upgrade signals confidence without straying from policy.

Near term, keep an eye on quarter-by-quarter production progression, Zaldívar’s cost path, and the cadence of spend at Centinela and Los Pelambres. Medium term, the promised 30% production uplift – alongside structurally tight copper markets – is the prize. For now, Antofagasta looks well positioned to keep compounding value through the cycle.