Aurrigo’s Bumpy Ride: Revenue Warning as Tariffs and Delays Bite
Well, this wasn’t the update Aurrigo shareholders were hoping for. Today’s RNS lands with a significant jolt: a stark warning that full-year revenue will fall “significantly below” market expectations. Let’s unpack the details and see what’s steering this autonomous vehicle pioneer off its projected path.
The H1 Picture: A Tale of Two Divisions
Aurrigo’s first half (ending June 2025) delivered revenue of £3.5 million, which the board says was broadly in line with their own internal expectations. But beneath that headline, the performance of its two core divisions diverged sharply:
- Autonomous Division (Up 41%): The bright spot. Revenue hit £1.14 million, driven by progress on key projects like the Changi Airport deployment. This underscores the core growth engine.
- Automotive Division (Down 24%): The drag. Revenue fell to £2.36 million. While Q1 was solid, Q2 was hit hard by the ripple effects of US tariffs on UK car OEM production. Customers deferred schedules and volumes dropped unexpectedly. The hope was for a swift H2 recovery – but that hope is now fading.
The H2 Outlook: Headwinds Strengthen
Here’s where the warning lights flash. Aurrigo now expects H2 revenue to be only “in line with” H1’s £3.5 million. That implies full-year revenue around £7 million. Why the sudden gloom compared to the market’s expectation of £12 million?
- Automotive Woes Continue: The US tariff impact is lingering. While volumes are expected to stabilise later in 2025, the pace of recovery means the H1 shortfall won’t be fully clawed back this year.
- Autonomous Delays Hit Harder: This is the bigger surprise. Despite “continued high levels of interest” and active talks with airports worldwide, converting that into near-term revenue is proving slower than anticipated. Key factors include:
- Extensions to existing testing programs.
- Ongoing product refinements.
- Delays to tender processes pushing expected start dates for new projects into 2026.
The combined effect? Revenue significantly below forecast, and EBITDA will be “materially impacted” too. A double whammy.
Mitigating Factors: Cash & Grants
It’s not all bleak. Aurrigo highlights some positives:
- Cash Position: Held £1.8 million at the end of June 2025. Not lavish, but provides a buffer.
- £1 Million Grant Win: Post-period, Aurrigo secured over £1m in grant funding via the CAM Pathfinder and Innovate UK’s Launchpad programmes. This will support four projects:
- Extending the Autonomous Cargo programme (supplying more vehicles to East Midlands Airport).
- Software & simulation development.
- Feasibility studies.
- Real-world trials with partners like IAG and Urban Foresight.
This grant cash will be recognised as “Other Income” and provides welcome, non-dilutive funding to offset some of the EBITDA pain.
Management’s View: Disappointed but Defiant
CEO David Keene struck a realistic but forward-looking tone:
- Acknowledged the “clearly disappointing” impact of tariffs and sales cycle delays on 2025 results.
- Emphasised resilience in H1 execution (citing Changi progress).
- Remains “confident about the longer-term,” citing growing airport interest and the fundamental need for autonomous solutions tackling efficiency, safety, and labour shortages.
- Stressed the “first-mover advantage,” strategic partnerships (like the new Swissport deal at Zurich Airport), and increasing tech proof points.
- Characterised the contract timing challenges as part of the “nature of scaling disruptive technology,” believing the market is “starting to move at pace.”
The Investor Takeaway: Patience Required
This is a significant reset. The £12m revenue dream for 2025 is gone, replaced by a likely £7m reality. The core story – autonomous technology solving real airport and transport challenges – remains intact and arguably compelling. Interest is high, partnerships are forming, and grants validate the tech.
However, the timing risk has been starkly highlighted. Converting pipeline interest into firm, revenue-generating contracts is taking longer than hoped, compounded by external factors like tariffs. The path to material, sustained growth now looks pushed further into 2026 and beyond.
While the grant provides some breathing room, investors need to buckle up for a longer, bumpier journey than anticipated just a few months ago. The technology’s potential is undeniable, but commercial traction is proving slower and more volatile. Aurrigo’s ability to finally land those big, transformative airport contracts in the coming months will be absolutely critical for rebuilding confidence. The pressure is on for H2 conversions.
