Baker Steel Resources Trust Reports 52.8% NAV Growth in 2025 and Announces New Capital Return Policy

Baker Steel Resources Trust posts 52.8% NAV gain and sets out a clearer path to cash returns

Big step forward from Baker Steel Resources Trust Limited (BSRT). The 2025 audited results show Net Asset Value per share up 52.8% to 137.1p, powered by critical minerals exposure and a couple of standout quoted names. On top, the Board has unveiled a new capital return policy that blends a dividend with buybacks and potential tenders. Here is what changed, what drove it, and why the next 12 to 24 months matter.

Headline numbers investors will care about

New capital return policy – the nuts and bolts

BSRT is moving to a blended model aimed at tackling the discount and rewarding holders:

• Target 5% return of capital each year.
• 3% annual dividend based on NAV, payable semi-annually, starting September 2026 and then April and September from 2027. Dividends will be paid from capital and/or net income.
• The balance of the 5% via buybacks or additional dividends.
• On significant asset realisations, if the discount has been over 25%, the Company will seek to use at least 50% of profits for a return of capital, intended as a tender offer (subject to available cash), or otherwise for enhanced buybacks or dividends.

These commitments remain at the discretion of the Board, factoring the discount, liquidity of holdings and funding needs of investee companies.

What drove the NAV surge in 2025

Commodity tailwinds helped – gold up 64.6%, silver 148.0%, copper 43.9%, tin 40.9%, and tungsten 193.0%. But stock specific progress did the heavy lifting:

• Silver X Mining share price up 454% and Tungsten West up 206%.
• Revaluation of the Bilboes Gold 1% NSR after the feasibility study and decision to proceed by Caledonia Mining.
• Sale of Polar Acquisition Limited following disposal of its Prognoz silver royalty.

A notable portfolio shift took place: quoted exposure rose sharply as development names re-rated and raised funding, while the once heavy concentration in unquoteds eased. Futura Resources and CEMOS Group together moved from 64.8% of NAV at 31 December 2024 to 47.8% at year end 2025. By 31 March 2026 (unaudited), that concentration reduced further to 37.8%.

Deep dive on the key holdings and catalysts

Tungsten West – Hemerdon restarts into a tungsten price crunch

At year end BSRT’s stake in Tungsten West was valued at £12.5 million (8.6% of NAV). Tungsten prices have surged after China restricted exports of five critical minerals including tungsten. APT was over US$1,600/MTU at 31 March 2026. Hemerdon is fully permitted and could supply roughly 20% of primary tungsten from outside China.

• Total restart financing requirement estimated at US$93 million, leveraging c.US$300 million of sunk capital.
• Revised feasibility study base case NPV (7.5%) US$190 million, IRR 29.3% at US$400/MTU tungsten.
• £44.4 million equity raised in February 2026; project debt package up to US$85.0 million is in late due diligence, including a US$25.0 million first tranche.
• Targeting first phase production in Q3 2026, with new crushing, screening and ore sorting commissioning in Q1 2027.

Management says at recent tungsten prices, annual EBITDA could be US$294 million once in full production. Post period, strong share performance has made Tungsten West the Trust’s largest holding at about 23% – an important driver to watch.

Futura Resources – refinancing secured, production ramping

Futura, owner of the Wilton and Fairhill steel making coal projects in Queensland, remains a core unquoted position at £36.4 million (24.9% of NAV) including equity, a 1.5% gross revenue royalty valued at £18.8 million, and loans.

• US$90 million 5-year “Nordic Bond” completed in December 2025, easing near-term repayments and funding remaining infrastructure capex.
• ROM production targeted at 145,000 tonnes per month in 2026, with saleable coal of around one million tonnes in CY 2026 and 1.9 Mtpa by 2030.
• Met coal prices recovered to around US$230/tonne at end March 2026. A note of caution: diesel availability in Australia could affect ramp-up if disruption persists.

CEMOS Group – margin step-change as clinker unit comes online

CEMOS, a private Moroccan cement producer, was valued at £33.5 million (22.9% of NAV). 2025 sales were 200,000 tonnes and unaudited EBITDA around €9 million, similar to 2024.

• First clinker produced in October 2025. In-house clinker and supplementary cementitious materials should materially reduce costs and support greener products.
• Second grinding plant under construction, expected by end 2026, doubling production from 2027.
• Considering a Casablanca listing in 2027/2028.

Blue Moon Metals – building a US critical minerals hub

BSRT holds 5,789,555 shares in Blue Moon (£13.6 million, 9.3% of NAV). The company now owns Nussir copper in Norway, the Blue Moon copper-zinc project in California, the Springer tungsten mine in Nevada and the Apex germanium-gallium mine in Utah acquired from Teck, which remains an 8% shareholder and has agreed offtake for Blue Moon zinc concentrates to Trail.

• Nussir and Hemerdon were selected as two of the 13 EU Strategic Projects located outside the EU.
• EXIM Bank expressions of interest for development loans received by Tungsten West and First Tin.
• Blue Moon’s California PEA: post-tax NPV (8%) US$244 million, IRR 38% on US$144.5 million initial capex. Decline construction started in 2025.

Bilboes Gold 1% NSR – a potential royalty paycheque

Valued at £15.7 million, this royalty over Caledonia Mining’s Bilboes project is now underpinned by a feasibility study and a development decision. At a gold price of US$3,648/oz the study showed NPV (8%) US$1,234 million and IRR 50.4%. Caledonia anticipates first production in H2 2028. At current gold prices in excess of US$4,000/oz, BSRT expects to receive over US$5 million per annum after withholding tax from the 1% NSR once in production.

Discount management, buybacks and why it matters

BSRT began buying back shares in Q1 2026 and the discount narrowed to a 3-year low around 21.2% in late February before the recent market turmoil widened it to 31.9% at March end. In my view, combining accretive buybacks with a NAV-based dividend and potential tenders is a sensible toolkit for a portfolio that still houses a meaningful private book but is seeing more liquidity emerge as projects progress and equities re-rate.

The balanced take – positives and watch-outs

• Positives: strong NAV growth, clearer income path via 3% dividend from September 2026, reduced concentration versus 2024, visible catalysts at Hemerdon, Bilboes, CEMOS and Blue Moon, and improved access to funding across the portfolio.
• Watch-outs: the top two holdings are still 48% of NAV, commodity and geopolitical risk are elevated, and timing for cash flows from royalties and restarts can slip. Diesel availability in Australia is a specific operational risk flagged for Futura. Discount volatility may persist in choppy markets.

Outlook and what could move the dial next

Equity markets have reopened for quality developers and BSRT is leaning into this with selective new exposures to pre-IPO precious metals names (not disclosed individually here beyond Chancery Royalty and MacKay Gold & Silver). Near-term, I am watching:

• Tungsten West – finalisation of debt package and Q3 2026 first phase production.
• Blue Moon – updated Nussir feasibility and progress on Springer and Apex integration.
• CEMOS – cost benefits from the clinker unit and build-out of the second grinding line.
• Futura – production ramp and cash generation as prices stabilise.
• Discount to NAV – the pace and scale of buybacks against the new 5% capital return framework.

Final thought

BSRT’s 2025 scorecard shows the benefit of owning development-stage optionality into a commodity upcycle, particularly in scarce, strategic minerals. With a defined capital return policy kicking in from September 2026 and several portfolio catalysts in view, the ingredients are there. Delivery will have to do the talking – but after a 52.8% NAV uplift, the direction of travel looks encouraging.