Barratt Redrow Maintains FY26 Guidance After Solid Third Quarter Performance

Cash and buyback: guidance raised, capital return ongoing

Year-end net cash is now expected between £550 million and £650 million – roughly £150 million ahead of previous guidance – helped by the timing of legacy building remediation payments and lower land spending. The share buyback continues: £33.3 million was deployed in Q3, bringing FY26 to date to £83.7 million across 22.9 million shares, with the balance to complete by end of June 2026.

Costs: FY26 inflation contained, FY27 watchlist

Build cost inflation guidance is unchanged at roughly 2% for FY26 overall, with around 3% expected in H2. Management flags that higher energy costs could lift material prices in FY27, with more clarity due in July. Purchasing scale, long-standing supplier ties, and optionality to switch to timber frame via Oregon all help manage input volatility.

Redrow integration delivering

The Group is operating through 32 divisions, IT integration completes this month, and the £100 million cost synergy target is now confirmed. Delivery is phased as £20 million in FY25, £50 million in FY26, and the remaining £30 million by end-December 2027. Early “synergy sales outlets” are live – the first two launched by adding Barratt Homes and David Wilson Homes outlets to Redrow’s Curborough Fields site in Lichfield, with more to come through FY28.

Land buying dialled down – discipline over growth

Only 2,465 plots were approved across 14 sites in the period (2025: 7,574 across 37). Year to date approvals are 4,010 plots across 29 sites (2025: 15,301 across 82). Full-year land approvals are now guided to 7,000-9,000 plots and land spend of £700 million-£800 million, both trimmed from prior guidance, reflecting selectivity and a strong existing land bank. The Group is working towards a target mix of 3.5 years owned land and 1.0 year controlled.

Why this matters for investors

Housebuilders live and die by reservations, margins, and cash. This update shows:

• Demand is steady, helped by PRS/MUS, without escalating incentives.
• Strong forward sales de-risk FY26 earnings and cash conversion into year end.
• Cost inflation is manageable for now; FY27 is the question mark.
• Integration benefits are real and front-loaded, underpinning margins.
• Capital discipline on land in a choppy macro should protect returns.

Management also reiterated that adjusted profit before tax should be in line with consensus. The company-compiled consensus (as at 14 April 2026) for FY26 adjusted PBT is £568 million, with a range of £534 million to £586 million, and completions including JVs of 17,416 (range 16,998 to 17,589).

Key numbers at a glance

Metric	FY26 Q3	FY25 Q3	Change
Net private reservation rate (incl. PRS/MUS)	0.67	0.63	+6.3%
Net private reservation rate (excl. PRS/MUS)	0.64	0.62	+3.2%
Total completions in period (incl. JV)	3,274	3,717	-11.9%
Total forward sales value (incl. JV)	£3,539.2m	£3,138.6m	+12.8%
Private order book (homes/value)	5,643 / £2,281.5m	5,503 / £2,243.1m	+2.5% / +1.7%
FY26 completion guidance (incl. c.600 JV)	17,200 to 17,800
FY26 forward sold	94%
Year-end net cash guidance	£550m to £650m
FY26 buyback to date	£83.7m (22.9m shares)

My take: positives and watch-outs

Positives

• Forward sales up 12.8% and 94% coverage provide strong near-term visibility.
• Raised net cash guidance and ongoing buyback point to healthy cash generation.
• Synergies are tangible and ahead of the heavy lifting years (FY25-FY26), supporting margins.
• Build cost inflation contained in FY26, with purchasing scale and timber frame flexibility as mitigants.
• Five-star HBF rating for the 17th year running signals quality and supports brand pricing power.

Watch-outs

• Completions were down in the quarter; while explained by a tough comparator, delivery in Q4 matters.
• Management flags that the Middle East conflict could keep rates higher for longer and re-ignite cost pressures – FY27 outlook is less certain.
• Land approvals and spend have been trimmed. Sensible for returns, but it can cap medium-term volume growth if kept too tight for too long.
• Affordable mix assumptions and any further pricing deflation could influence average selling prices and margin.

Sales outlets and pipeline readiness

Average outlets in the period were 408 including JVs (2025: 419). The Group launched 32 new outlets, including its first two synergy sales outlets at Curborough Fields, and now plans a further 6 by year end, 22 in FY27, with 15 more in FY28. Importantly, detailed planning consent is in place for 94% of the plots expected to deliver completions in FY27 – the operational groundwork is largely set.

What to watch next

• Mid-July trading update for sharper FY27 build cost guidance and sales momentum into the new financial year.
• Q4 completions and cash conversion to hit the upgraded net cash range.
• Progress on synergy roll-out and any uplift in outlet count into FY27.
• Land market conditions – whether selectivity eases if pricing stabilises.

Overall, this is a tidy, confidence-building update. Barratt Redrow is doing the right things – selling steadily, protecting cash, squeezing costs, and integrating at pace. The macro is the swing factor for FY27, but for FY26 the path looks well laid.