British Land Reports Strong Q3 Leasing Momentum and Reaffirms Earnings Outlook

British Land’s Q3: Leasing Beats ERV, Pipeline Swells, Earnings Reaffirmed

British Land has delivered a tidy Q3 for the three months to 31 December 2025, with leasing momentum across both London campuses and retail parks. The headline: 882,000 sq ft let across 151 deals, at rents 8.5% ahead of ERV and 10.2% above previous passing rent. Management is confident enough to reaffirm full-year guidance of at least 28.5p underlying EPS for FY26, and is flagging at least 6% growth for FY27 to 30.2p.

In plain English, they are signing space faster and at better prices than expected, and they think that will flow through to earnings. The under-offer pipeline looks chunky too, which helps the outlook.

Key numbers at a glance

Metric	Q3 update
Leasing completed	882,000 sq ft across 151 deals
Pricing vs ERV (estimated rental value)	8.5% ahead
Pricing vs previous passing rent	10.2% ahead
Under offer	1.8m sq ft, 8.1% ahead of ERV, 14.6% ahead of previous passing rent
Campuses leasing	380,000 sq ft across 61 deals, 6.6% ahead of ERV, 19.6% ahead of previous passing rent
Campuses under offer	1.1m sq ft, 5.5% ahead of ERV
Retail leasing	502,000 sq ft across 90 deals; retail parks 383,000 sq ft, 12.0% ahead of ERV
Retail under offer	727,000 sq ft, 12.5% ahead of ERV
Retail parks occupancy and footfall	99% occupied; footfall up 2.2% year on year
FY26 underlying EPS guidance	At least 28.5p
FY27 underlying EPS outlook	At least 6% growth to 30.2p
Portfolio value (30 September 2025)	£15.2bn (British Land share: £9.8bn)

What does “ahead of ERV” actually mean?

ERV, or estimated rental value, is the in-house view of what space should rent for at market rates. Letting space 8.5% ahead of ERV suggests British Land is achieving better-than-expected pricing. “Previous passing rent” is the rent paid on the expiring lease; signing new leases 10.2% above that shows real uplift as tenants roll over. Under offer means deals are agreed but not yet signed.

In retail parks, management says the portfolio is largely rack rented – basically at or near full market rent – which is why the uplift versus previous passing rent is smaller there (4.7% on completed deals and 5.4% on under offers). Even so, deals are landing 12% ahead of ERV, which is punchy.

London campuses: Science and tech demand doing the heavy lifting

Campuses saw 380,000 sq ft let in Q3 across 61 deals, 6.6% ahead of ERV and a strong 19.6% above previous passing rent. The Science & Technology theme is front and centre at One Triton Square, where 63,000 sq ft is now completed or exchanged with biopharma, healthcare and tech occupiers, and another 166,000 sq ft is under offer. By floor area, the building is 72% let or under offer.

Over at Broadgate, momentum continues with 178,000 sq ft let in the quarter and a further 806,000 sq ft under offer. Several renewals are included, which chimes with occupiers gravitating to high-quality, well-located space that meets modern standards amid constrained City supply. British Land is also moving its head office to 20 Triton Street in the summer, and the space it will vacate at York House has already been re-let, which limits void risk.

Retail parks: near-full occupancy and rising footfall

Retail delivered 502,000 sq ft of leasing across 90 deals, with retail parks accounting for 383,000 sq ft at 12.0% ahead of ERV. A healthy 727,000 sq ft is under offer at 12.5% ahead of ERV. Occupancy at retail parks is 99%, and footfall rose 2.2% year on year.

This format continues to suit value, bulky goods, and convenience-led tenants, and the numbers reflect that. With assets largely rack rented, the big driver now is keeping occupancy high and pushing ERV forward through strong tenant demand and limited new supply.

Earnings guidance: why the reiteration matters

The company reiterates at least 28.5p underlying EPS for FY26 and expects at least 6% growth for FY27 to 30.2p. That confidence is underpinned by leasing ahead of plan, a sizeable under-offer pipeline across both campuses and retail, and robust occupancy at retail parks.

For income-focused investors, the guidance gives a clear marker on near-term earnings power. The caveat is that under-offer deals need to convert, and the update does not disclose incentives or lease terms, which can affect cashflow timing.

Positives, pressure points, and my take

What looks good

• Pricing power: Achieving 8.5% above ERV and 10.2% over previous passing rent signals healthy demand.
• Pipeline visibility: 1.8m sq ft under offer, with campuses and retail both contributing.
• Sector mix: Science & Technology demand at One Triton Square and renewal activity at Broadgate align with the “flight to quality”.
• Retail resilience: 99% occupancy and higher footfall underline the strength of retail parks.
• Guidance held and growth flagged: At least 28.5p for FY26 and at least 6% growth for FY27 to 30.2p.

What to watch

• Conversion risk: Under-offer space is not yet signed. Watch Q4 deal completions.
• Disclosure gaps: No update on valuations, yields, or incentives. NAV and capital values are not disclosed in this trading update.
• Retail parks “rack rented”: With rents near market levels, growth relies on ERV moving up and keeping occupancy near 99%.
• Development lease-up: One Triton Square is 72% let or under offer; continued progress is key to de-risking.

Bottom line for investors

This is a clean, upbeat update that points to momentum in the two areas British Land is focused on: London campuses and retail parks. The company is signing space at better-than-expected rents, carrying a strong under-offer pipeline, and holding its earnings line for FY26 with growth pencilled in for FY27.

There is still execution to land in Q4, and we will need the year-end results for valuation colour. But on today’s facts, operational performance is doing the heavy lifting, and that supports the earnings outlook British Land has set out.