Record-beating FY 2025 for Caledonia Mining – profits up 193% and cash piling in
Caledonia Mining has delivered a thumping set of preliminary, unaudited results for FY 2025. A much higher realised gold price, steady ounces from Blanket and disciplined spending combined to drive sharp growth in revenue, earnings and free cash flow. The Board has also declared a 14 cent quarterly dividend, payable on 17 April 2026.
Note: figures are preliminary and unaudited, pending the Form 20-F filing.
Headline numbers investors should know
| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold sold | 79,075 oz | 77,917 oz | +1.5% |
| Realised gold price | US$3,383/oz | US$2,347/oz | +44.1% |
| Revenue | US$267.7 million | US$183.0 million | +46.2% |
| EBITDA | US$125.3 million | US$59.7 million | +109.9% |
| Profit after tax | US$67.5 million | US$23.1 million | +192.8% |
| Free cash flow | US$62.1 million | US$10.6 million | +483.6% |
| Basic EPS | US$2.83 | US$0.91 | +211.0% |
| On-mine cash cost | US$1,263/oz | US$1,073/oz | +17.7% |
| AISC | US$1,952/oz | US$1,506/oz | +29.6% |
| Cash and cash equivalents | US$35.7 million | US$4.3 million | n/m |
Production at Blanket was 76,213 oz, with Bilboes oxides contributing 1,683 oz. Q4 2025 remained strong with a realised price of US$4,057/oz and revenue of US$74.7 million.
What drove the outperformance
The simple story: the gold price did the heavy lifting, while ounces held broadly steady. Realised price jumped to US$3,383/oz, expanding margins despite inflation pressure on labour, consumables and power. Revenue climbed 46% and EBITDA more than doubled to US$125.3 million.
Costs rose. On-mine cash costs came in at US$1,263/oz and all-in sustaining cost (AISC, a mine’s full cost to keep producing, including sustaining capex) was US$1,952/oz. Both were just above guidance ranges, mainly due to lower grade at Blanket and higher input costs. Even so, the margin between price and AISC was healthy, driving free cash flow up to US$62.1 million.
Cash strength and funding runway into Bilboes
Year-end cash and cash equivalents increased to US$35.7 million and the Group moved into a net cash position of US$23.8 million, a clear step-up from net debt at the end of 2024. Liquidity at 31 December 2025 totalled US$55.0 million, including bullion on hand and fixed-term deposits.
- Early 2026 bolster: US$150 million convertible senior notes completed, with approximately US$130 million net proceeds.
- Hedging in place: minimum price of US$3,500/oz on 3,000 oz per month from January 2026 to December 2028, underpinning cash flows through the Bilboes build. This is a floor, not a cap.
- Interim funding facility up to US$150 million being progressed, with co-lead arrangers appointed.
Opinion: the funding stack looks thoughtfully assembled for a major build. Convertible notes can introduce future dilution, but terms are not disclosed here. The gold price floor improves lender confidence without sacrificing upside exposure.
Operations at Blanket – stable output, investment to improve reliability
Blanket’s 76,213 oz met increased guidance despite late-year power interruptions and crew moves that affected grades. The company expects 2026 production of 72,000 to 76,500 oz, with a stronger second half as higher-grade areas come through.
Capex at Blanket was US$30.8 million in 2025, including completion of the new tailings storage facility. The Board has approved two reliability projects that matter for future costs and uptime:
- 34 km 132 kV power line to the national backbone – US$14.2 million. Target completion Q2 2027. Expected to reduce grid power cost, cut diesel use and add roughly 1,000 oz per year from improved operating reliability.
- Central Shaft winder conversion from AC to DC – US$2.2 million over Dec 2026/Jan 2027, expected to save about US$0.6 million per year.
Safety remains front and centre after a fatality in September 2025. No lost time injuries occurred in Q4. LTIFR for FY 2025 was 0.84 per million work hours. The IsoMetrix safety system is now live across operations.
2026 capital plan – big step-change spend driven by Bilboes
Total Group capex projected at US$178.9 million in 2026:
- Sustaining capex: US$43.0 million, largely at Blanket.
- Growth capex: US$135.9 million, including US$132.1 million allocated to Bilboes development (subject to Board approval and funding) and US$3.8 million for exploration at Motapa.
Opinion: it is an aggressive but coherent plan. Expect near-term cash outflows to rise materially as Bilboes ramps up, which is why the bolstered balance sheet and hedging matter.
Bilboes feasibility – the catalyst for multi-mine status
Caledonia has approved Bilboes for development following the November 2025 feasibility study. Headline figures:
- Proven and probable reserves: 1.75 million oz contained in 24.1 million tonnes at 2.26 g/t.
- Life of mine: 10.8 years, single-phase development.
- Production: about 200,000 oz in the first full year, with first production anticipated in late 2028.
- Economics: post-tax NPV (8% real) of US$582 million and post-tax IRR of 32.5% at US$2,548/oz, with stronger returns at prevailing spot prices.
Why it matters: if delivered on time and budget, Bilboes could materially re-rate the Group’s production and earnings profile. Financing discipline and execution are now the key watch points.
Motapa exploration – building optionality next to Bilboes
Motapa sits adjacent to Bilboes and is shaping up as a strategic resource hub. 2025 work included 1,564 m of diamond drilling and 18,325 m of reverse circulation drilling. A maiden mineral resource estimate for sulphides at the Motapa North trend is expected in Q2 2026. The 2026 plan allocates US$3.8 million to exploration, with programmes aligned to Bilboes development timing.
Dividend details and dates
The Board approved a quarterly dividend of 14 cents per share, payable on 17 April 2026. Ex-dividend dates are 31 March 2026 (VFEX) and 2 April 2026 (AIM and NYSE American), with a record date of 2 April 2026. UK-registered shareholders will be paid in Sterling.
Risks and things to watch
- Costs: AISC at US$1,952/oz was a touch above guidance and may face further inflation. The new power line and winder upgrade should help from 2027, but accommodation costs at Blanket are rising.
- Grade and output: 2026 Blanket guidance is slightly lower at the midpoint, with H2 weighted delivery.
- Project execution and funding: Bilboes requires significant capital. The hedging programme and convertible notes strengthen the case, but funding terms and timelines remain critical.
- Safety: ongoing emphasis is appropriate after the 2025 fatality, with systems upgrades now in place.
Josh’s take – a strong platform with clear growth momentum
This is a high-quality print. Caledonia converted a buoyant gold price into record revenue, profits and free cash, moved into net cash and kept investing for resilience. 2026 will likely see lower Blanket output and much higher capex, but the financial buffer, price floor and funding plan look sensible. If Bilboes progresses as outlined, Caledonia transitions from a solid single-asset producer into a multi-mine business with scale by the end of the decade.
For retail investors, the set-up is straightforward: strong current margins, a maintained dividend, and a big, financed growth option in Bilboes. The upside case is compelling, but execution and cost control remain the swing factors to monitor through 2026.
