Q3 2025: Revenue up 52.4% as gold price tailwind powers Caledonia’s earnings
Caledonia Mining’s third quarter was defined by strong pricing, steady production and a clear plan to invest for the long term. Revenue rose 52.4% to $71.4 million, EBITDA jumped 162.6% to $33.5 million, and profit after tax surged to $18.7 million, up 468.0% year-on-year.
Before the numbers, a sombre note: the company reported a fatality at Blanket Mine related to secondary blasting. Management says a comprehensive review of safety procedures and training is underway. Safety must come first, and investors should welcome a rigorous response.
What drove the beat: higher realised gold price and more ounces sold
- Realised gold price averaged $3,434/oz, up 40.3% versus Q3 2024.
- Ounces sold rose 8.7% to 20,792 oz (Blanket sold 20,355 oz; Bilboes oxide contributed 437 oz).
- Gold production at Blanket was 19,106 oz (up 0.6%); 2,861 oz of bullion on hand at quarter-end were sold at the start of Q4.
- Free cash flow improved to $5.9 million from negative $2.4 million a year ago.
Headline numbers investors care about
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $71.4m | $46.9m | +52.4% |
| EBITDA | $33.5m | $12.8m | +162.6% |
| Profit after tax | $18.7m | $3.3m | +468.0% |
| Free cash flow | $5.9m | $(2.4)m | n/m |
| Ounces sold | 20,792 oz | 19,136 oz | +8.7% |
| Realised gold price | $3,434/oz | $2,447/oz | +40.3% |
| On-mine cost (consolidated) | $1,228/oz | $1,056/oz | +16.3% |
| AISC | $1,937/oz | $1,501/oz | +29.0% |
Quick jargon check: On-mine cost includes core production costs like power, labour and consumables. AISC (all-in sustaining cost) adds sustaining capital, admin and royalties – a fuller view of the cost to keep ounces flowing.
Costs: higher, but manageable in a $3,400/oz price world
Blanket’s on-mine cost for the quarter was $1,203/oz, above the earlier full-year guidance of $1,050-$1,150/oz. Management now expects Blanket’s 2025 on-mine cost to land in the $1,150-$1,250/oz range and has raised AISC guidance to $1,850-$1,950/oz (from $1,690-$1,790/oz).
The drivers: more tonnes processed to offset lower grade, higher labour and consumables, and higher royalties (still 5% rate, but bigger base because the gold price is higher). The move is not ideal, but with a realised price of $3,434/oz, margins remain very healthy even at the higher AISC.
Blanket Mine operations: more tonnes, lower grade, bigger stockpile
On the ground, the mine did what it needed to do. Tonnes milled rose to 212.5 thousand tonnes (from 206.0 thousand), but grades dipped slightly due to dilution and crew moves to new areas. The plant used its sprint capacity to meet targets, with recoveries steady at 93.3%.
Underground, tonnes broken and hoisted improved after management changes made in late 2024. The mining rate outpaced milling, so 34,968 tonnes of ore were stockpiled – roughly 15 days of throughput. That buffer should help smooth production during any equipment maintenance or interruptions.
Sales timing quirks to note
- Q3 sales exclude 2,861 oz of bullion on hand (sold in early October), and include 4,115 oz of prior quarter work-in-progress sold in Q3.
- Blanket sold 20,355 oz in the quarter, up 6.4% year-on-year.
Growth pipeline: Bilboes feasibility study and Motapa maiden resource in sight
Caledonia says the Bilboes feasibility study is “imminent”, with the full study expected by the end of November. That document will be a major milestone for the medium-term growth story.
Meanwhile, Motapa keeps advancing. The 2025 programme is substantial (25,580 metres RC and 1,780 metres diamond planned). By quarter-end, 17,787 metres RC and 1,763.4 metres diamond were complete, with results in line with expectations. A maiden resource for part of Motapa is expected in the first half of 2026.
At Blanket, deep drilling below 34 level continues to return encouraging grades and widths, potentially upgrading resources from inferred to indicated. Surface trenching at the “K-Pits” has identified an anomalous zone over about 53,000 square metres, with a 5,000-metre RC programme underway; results are expected in Q1 2026.
Capex, TSF completion and liquidity to fund the plan
Capital investment is squarely focused on sustaining and modernising operations. Year-to-date capex is $22.6 million against 2025 guidance of $41.0 million for the Group, including $34.1 million at Blanket ($29.3 million sustaining and $4.8 million non-sustaining), $5.8 million on exploration at Bilboes and Motapa, and $1.1 million on Group IT and other initiatives.
The new tailings storage facility was completed on 31 July 2025, with deposition ongoing since October 2024. Development is pushing ahead to access three new levels (26, 30 and 34) with a fourth (38 level) to follow via a twin decline started in February 2024. Management expects to fund spend from cash generation and reserves, with no anticipated impact on the regular quarterly dividend.
Balance sheet and liquidity snapshot
| Liquidity item | Amount (30 Sep 2025) |
|---|---|
| Cash on hand | $15.67m |
| Bullion on hand | $3.59m |
| Gold sales receivables | $5.59m |
| Fixed-term deposits | $18.50m |
| Drawn bank facilities | $(8.39)m |
| Net cash and liquid assets | $34.96m |
| Undrawn bank facilities | $9.36m |
| Total liquidity | $44.32m |
Dividend: 14 cents per share confirmed
The Board declared a quarterly dividend of 14 cents per share, payable on 5 December 2025. In a year of elevated sustaining capex, reiterating the dividend message matters – it signals confidence in ongoing cash generation.
Safety performance and response
The fatality is a serious setback, and the review of procedures and training is essential. The Group’s LTIFR (lost time injury frequency rate) was 0.56 per million hours in Q3 (0.55 in Q3 2024), and TIFR (total injury frequency rate) was 3.34 (3.30 in Q3 2024). The focus now must be on translating the review into measurable improvements underground.
2025 guidance and what to watch next
- Production guidance maintained at 75,500-79,500 oz.
- On-mine cost guidance raised to $1,150-$1,250/oz; AISC raised to $1,850-$1,950/oz.
- Capex guidance $41.0 million; management does not expect an impact on the dividend.
- Key upcoming events: Bilboes feasibility study release; further Blanket deep drilling results in Q4; Motapa drilling results later in Q4 and a maiden resource in H1 2026.
My take: the good, the bad, and the investable
- Positive: Pricing power did the heavy lifting, but operations also delivered more tonnes and sales. Free cash flow turned positive, liquidity is solid, and the growth pipeline has near-term catalysts.
- Negative: Costs are up and guidance has been reset higher due to grade and input pressures, plus higher royalties at elevated prices. Safety must improve – full stop.
- Why it matters: Even with higher AISC, margins at a $3,400/oz realised price are compelling. If Bilboes and Motapa add credible scale, Caledonia can grow while sustaining returns.
Tune in
Management will host a webcast on Monday 10 November 2025 at 2:00pm London time. Link: https://brrmedia.news/CLDN_Q325
