Capricorn Energy Reports Strong FY 2025 Results with Egypt Concession Milestones

Operational delivery and low unit costs

Production averaged 20,024 boepd, above the guidance midpoint, helped by liquids-rich development drilling and a waterflood expansion at Badr El Din (BED). Unit production costs were a lean $5.4/boe, and depletion charges fell to $50.8m thanks to the reserves uplift from the new concession terms.

On drilling, four rigs ran in H2 2025, with new activity in BED and a promising Lower Bahariya gas result (BED15-31) now set for follow-up in H1 2026. There was an $11m impairment on the Alam El Shawish West concession, reflecting near-term focus shifting to higher-return merged areas and the shorter remaining term at AESW.

Reserves upgrade and valuation signals

Independent evaluator GLJ tallied total 2P WI reserves of 53.2 mmboe (31.6 mmboe net entitlement), with 42% undeveloped across 75 locations. The net entitlement 2P NPV15 is $365m under GLJ’s January 2026 Brent deck (realised liquids $61.87/bbl in 2026, rising thereafter).

My read: this is a meaningful underpin for the Egyptian portfolio under the new fiscal terms. It is, of course, an NPV of reserves only – it does not equate to equity value and it excludes corporate items and future M&A. Still, after a tough few years, the reserves base now looks reset on better terms.

2026 outlook: four rigs, two shutdowns, and ratification in sight

Guidance for 2026 is 18,000-22,000 boepd, with 43% liquids. Two planned maintenance shutdowns at BED will take a bite, and timing of ratification will influence well sequencing. Capex is guided at $85-95m and operating costs at $5-7/boe. The four-rig programme continues, focusing on liquids-rich BED opportunities while following up the gas-prone Bahariya target.

Exploration will be near-field and fully funded from Egyptian cash flow. On the corporate side, around $4m is expected from Waldorf in Q2 2026 (dependent on restructuring plan sanction). The Senegal tax dispute remains live through legal channels, with any international award not expected until late 2028 or early 2029.

Strategy, risks and what to watch

Management is prioritising disciplined investment in Egypt, shareholder value, and selective M&A in Egypt, the UK North Sea and the wider MENA region. A few flags for investors:

• Ratification of the merged concession in H1 2026 – the main catalyst for unlocking the accrued revenue uplift and new development/exploration areas.
• Receivables momentum – collections stayed strong in 2025; further reductions would support debt paydown and, in time, potential capital returns.
• Junior debt – outstanding $30m and post year end defaults noted; watch for early repayment enabled by Egyptian cash flow.
• Production mix and uptime – two BED shutdowns are planned; liquids mix guided slightly higher at 43%.
• Apache withdrawal from NEAG – potential working interest change introduces some 2026 uncertainty.
• Waldorf payment in Q2 2026 – around $4m expected, but contingent on court sanctioning.
• Senegal tax case – no provision booked; resolution years away but remains a headline risk.
• Geopolitics – heightened MENA volatility flagged in Q1 2026 could affect fiscal conditions and collections if it escalates.

One more interesting note in the small print: on 11 March 2026 the company received multiple unsolicited, non-binding proposals from Alamadiyaf al Masiyyah for Trading LLC (Cafani Group) regarding a possible all-cash offer for the company. There is no certainty of a firm offer, but it underlines perceived value in the refreshed Egypt platform.

My take: cautious optimism, backed by cash and barrels

This is the cleanest Capricorn update in years. The merged concession is a genuine step-change – more reserves, better netbacks, and a refreshed development clock. Cash collections have improved materially, receivables are down, and the Group now sits on $103m of net cash with modest remaining debt inside Egypt.

It is not risk-free. Receivables at $86m are still material, ratification timing matters, and there is a noted default status on the Junior facility (albeit with no lender action). Add the two BED shutdowns, NEAG working interest uncertainty, and the long-dated Senegal tax overhang, and 2026 will still require tight execution.

Overall, though, FY 2025 shows a business regaining financial traction. If ratification lands on time and collections continue, Capricorn has the ingredients for a cash-generative 2026, with optionality on drilling, M&A, and – in time – capital returns. For investors, keep an eye on ratification, receivables, and the drill-bit results in BED and Bahariya. If those deliver, the market should take notice.