Central Asia Metals’ 2025 results: resilient cash, heavy non‑cash hit, dividend held
Central Asia Metals (AIM: CAML) posted a solid operational year but a headline accounting loss, after taking a large non-cash impairment at its Sasa mine. Revenue rose 7% to $229.9 million and EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) was steady at $101.8 million with a 44% margin. However, a $117.8 million impairment pushed the Group to a net loss of $75.2 million.
Despite that, cash generation remained healthy and the Board has conditionally recommended a 2025 final dividend of 7.5 pence per share, taking the year’s total to 12 pence – the top end of CAML’s 30%-50% free cash flow policy range.
| Key numbers (FY 2025) | Reported |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $229.9 million |
| Group EBITDA | $101.8 million (44% margin) |
| Net (loss)/profit | $(75.2) million |
| Impairment charge | $117.8 million |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $56.0 million |
| Cash in bank (year end) | $80.1 million |
| Final dividend (recommended) | 7.5 pence per share |
| Full-year dividend | 12 pence per share (2024: 18p) |
| Share buyback | $10.0 million (completed post period) |
| Copper production (Kounrad) | 13,311 tonnes |
| Zinc-in-concentrate (Sasa) | 17,881 tonnes |
| Lead-in-concentrate (Sasa) | 25,156 tonnes |
Why there’s a loss when EBITDA is solid
The loss is driven by a non-cash impairment at Sasa following a life-of-mine update. CAML shortened Sasa’s mine plan to 2034 and, for now, restricted the plan to the Svinja Reka deposit, excluding Golema Reka from the schedule. With updated costs and cut-off assumptions, that reduced the carrying value and triggered the $117.8 million impairment.
Importantly, this doesn’t change cash today. Management’s focus is on restoring profitability at Sasa through mine planning, grade control, productivity steps and headcount reductions already under way. The CEO also flagged “underlying attributable profit” of $32.6 million once you strip out the impairment and other exceptional items – a useful pointer to the business beneath the accounting hit.
Operations: Kounrad dependable, Sasa reset in progress
Kounrad copper stays in the low-cost club
Kounrad delivered 13,311 tonnes of copper, near flat year on year, and generated $129.7 million of revenue. C1 cash costs (a standard on-site cost metric excluding royalties, taxes and depreciation) were just $0.82 per pound, keeping Kounrad firmly in the bottom quartile globally. Site EBITDA was $97.3 million at a 75% margin.
Two positives to note. First, the 4.77 MW solar plant supplied about 15% of Kounrad’s power in 2025. Second, from 1 January 2026, Kazakhstan’s Mineral Extraction Tax for man-made mineral formations (including Kounrad) drops from 8.55% to 0.855% – a material tailwind for margins.
Sasa: grades softer, plan tightened, actions taken
Sasa processed 799,080 tonnes of ore but faced lower head grades as mining moved deeper and the orebody became more variable. That dragged metal output to 17,881 tonnes of zinc-in-concentrate and 25,156 tonnes of lead-in-concentrate. Site EBITDA was $25.7 million (26% margin), with pressure from grades, higher concession fees, pay rises and the commissioning of the dry-stack tailings plant.
Management has completed a comprehensive review. Actions include denser face sampling and drilling, improved mine planning, productivity improvements and about an 11% workforce reduction. A project to test ore sorting is in motion, aiming to unlock value in lower-grade material, particularly at Golema Reka. Hedging has been introduced for 2026 to protect margins – around 50% of expected payable zinc is forward sold at $3,011.5 per tonne, and about 50% of euro-denominated site costs are hedged at $1.185 per euro.
Safety and sustainability
The Group recorded one lost time injury at Kounrad and none at Sasa, delivering a Group LTIFR of 0.39, improved from 0.77. Dry-stack tailings and underground paste backfill are now embedded at Sasa, reducing water usage and improving long-term stability – sensible, modern practice that also aids community and regulatory confidence.
Cash, dividends and buybacks
Adjusted free cash flow came in at $56.0 million and year-end cash was $80.1 million, with just $0.9 million of overdraft drawn. The 2025 dividend totals 12 pence per share (final 7.5 pence proposed), representing 50% of free cash flow. Note the final dividend is conditional on shareholder and court approval of the capital reduction announced on 10 March 2026 and on the Company having sufficient distributable reserves at the time of payment.
Management also acted on valuation. A $10.0 million share buyback launched in H2 2025 was completed post period end, signalling confidence in longer-term value while keeping the balance sheet flexible.
2026 guidance: steady at Kounrad, a lift targeted at Sasa
- Copper: 12,000 to 13,000 tonnes (Kounrad)
- Zinc-in-concentrate: 18,000 to 20,000 tonnes (Sasa)
- Lead-in-concentrate: 26,000 to 28,000 tonnes (Sasa)
Group capex is guided at $14.5 million to $17.5 million (2025: $19.0 million) as big-ticket projects at Sasa are now complete. The strategy at Sasa is all about productivity and efficiency, supported by hedging and a back-to-basics mine plan that should de-risk delivery.
Growth optionality: exploration and deal-making
CAML is turning the drill bit in 2026. In Kazakhstan, a Group programme of up to 5,500 metres will test high-grade base metals targets. Post period end, the Company also invested a further £0.85 million in Aberdeen Minerals, taking its stake to 32.6% to fund drilling at the Arthrath project in northeast Scotland.
On M&A, CAML walked away from a competitive process to acquire New World Resources’ Antler copper project, but not empty handed – it received a $1.6 million break fee and realised a gain on share sales. The Board stresses there’s still “significant financial capacity for growth”.
What I like vs what worries me
- Positives:
- Cash engine intact: $101.8 million of EBITDA and $56.0 million of free cash flow.
- Kounrad remains a rare, low-cost copper asset with a tax tailwind from 2026.
- Dividend maintained within policy and a $10.0 million buyback completed.
- Pragmatic reset at Sasa with hedging, focused LoM and tangible productivity actions.
- Watch-outs:
- The Sasa impairment reflects a tighter reserve base and a shorter mine plan to 2034 – execution on grades and dilution is now critical.
- 2026 zinc treatment charges are expected to rise from 2025’s historic lows, so the new hedges need to do some heavy lifting.
- The final dividend hinges on court approval of the capital reduction and available distributable reserves.
Catalysts and what to watch next
- Capital reduction and confirmation of the final dividend timetable.
- Quarterly progress at Sasa on grades, recoveries and unit costs.
- Impact of the Kazakh MET reduction on Kounrad’s 2026 cash costs.
- Commodity price backdrop – copper hit record highs post year end; zinc firmed as well.
- Exploration results in Kazakhstan and Aberdeen Minerals’ drilling at Arthrath.
- Any movement on the M&A pipeline.
My take
This is a tale of two mines and one accounting adjustment. Kounrad keeps doing the heavy lifting at enviable costs, and 2026 should benefit from a sharply lower MET rate. Sasa has been recalibrated to what the geology is giving today, with sensible safeguards – tighter planning, cost work, and hedging – to stabilise margins while the team goes after productivity and potential resource upside.
On balance, I view these results as a reset rather than a retreat. The impairment is non-cash, cash flow is sound, and the capital allocation is disciplined – dividend in policy, buyback completed, exploration funded, and growth capacity preserved. Execution at Sasa is the swing factor. If the 2026 plan lands while copper stays strong, the market may look through the impairment and refocus on the cash.
