Central Asia Metals Reports H1 2025 Results with Dividend Cut and $10M Share Buyback

CAML H1 2025: earnings down, dividend reset and a fresh buyback

Central Asia Metals has reported a mixed first half. Safety and sustainability were excellent, Kounrad was steady, but Sasa’s grades dragged group profitability and cash generation. Management has reset the dividend to align with policy and launched a new share buyback.

Key metric	H1 2025	H1 2024 (restated)
Group revenue	$99.5 million	$101.9 million
EBITDA	$39.9 million	$51.6 million
EBITDA margin	40%	51%
Adjusted free cash flow	$16.2 million	$30.0 million
EPS (basic, total)	5.06 cents	12.04 cents
Cash / overdraft at 30 June	$47.7 million / $6.6 million	$67.6 million / $0.3 million (31 Dec 2024)
Dividend	4.5 pence per share	9 pence
Share buyback	Up to $10 million	Not applicable

Dividend cut to 4.5p and $10 million buyback: what’s the logic?

The Board has declared a 4.5p interim dividend and, crucially, said distributions are being brought back in line with policy of 30-50% of free cash flow. For H1 2025, adjusted FCF was $16.2 million, and the interim payout equates to approximately 66% as a first “reset” step. Alongside this, a share buyback of up to $10 million starts today.

Why it matters: the lower cash dividend preserves balance sheet flexibility for growth while the buyback should help support per‑share metrics. Management also points out that the combination keeps total H1 shareholder returns at roughly recent levels – $20.8 million when you add dividend plus buyback. If you own CAML for income, the near-term cheque is smaller. If you own it for capital discipline and future deals, this is sensible housekeeping.

Operations: Kounrad dependable, Sasa facing grade headwinds

Kounrad copper – low-cost workhorse

• Production: 6,218 tonnes (H1 2024: 6,608 tonnes); sales 5,744 tonnes.
• Revenue: $53.0 million.
• C1 cash cost: $0.79/lb (H1 2024: $0.78/lb) – still in the industry’s lowest quartile.
• SX-EW availability: 99.7% with planned maintenance only.
• Solar plant supplied 16.6% of site power in the period.

Comment: another reliable half from Kounrad, with slightly lower volumes but standout plant uptime and very competitive costs. Inventory built at period end has been sold post period, which should help H2 cash receipts.

Sasa zinc-lead – recovery in tonnage, but grades the issue

• Contained production: 8,692 tonnes zinc-in-concentrate; 12,613 tonnes lead-in-concentrate.
• Payable sales: 7,338 tonnes zinc; 12,165 tonnes lead.
• C1 cash cost (zinc-equivalent): $0.75/lb (H1 2024: $0.68/lb).
• Head grades averaged 2.59% zinc and 3.40% lead.
• Dry-Stack Tailings plant commissioned; paste-fill rollout continuing.

Comment: mined tonnes rose about 8% year-on-year, showing the mining transition is bedding in. However, orebody variability pulled grades below plan, trimming metal output and lifting unit costs. Guidance for 2025 was modestly cut in July, and the company says it remains on schedule to meet the revised ranges. External consultants have reviewed Sasa, with recommendations to be implemented from H2 2025 – that is the key lever to watch.

Financial performance: costs up, sales volumes down

EBITDA fell 23% to $39.9 million as inflation-linked wages, running two new plants at Sasa, higher business development spend and a weaker US dollar against the Macedonian denar bit into margins. Group EBITDA margin fell to 40% from 51%.

Adjusted free cash flow dropped to $16.2 million (down 46%), reflecting cost pressure and higher cash taxes. Notably, $6.0 million of Kazakhstan withholding tax was paid in H1, with none expected in H2 2025; the company also notes a $1.4 million Kazakh corporate income tax overpayment that will offset liabilities.

By operation, Kounrad posted EBITDA of $38.3 million with a 72% margin; Sasa delivered $11.9 million at a 26% margin. EPS from continuing operations was 5.33 cents (basic).

Balance sheet: still solid, with post-period cash boost

At 30 June, cash stood at $47.7 million and the overdraft at $6.6 million. After the period end, CAML sold its New World Resources stake for $18.7 million and received a $1.6 million break fee linked to the terminated transaction. That more than offsets the H1 investment outflow. The group describes “significant financial capacity for growth”, and the language here signals the M&A appetite remains intact after stepping away from the contested NWR process.

Market backdrop and unit costs

Copper strengthened across H1, ending just shy of $10,000 per tonne. Zinc softened 7% while lead rose over 5%. Treatment charges for zinc and lead concentrates fell to multi‑year lows, which helped Sasa offset weaker head grades. Group C1 cash costs on a copper‑equivalent basis were $1.80/lb (H1 2024: $1.66/lb), reflecting lower copper‑equivalent tonnes and higher onsite costs.

Sustainability and safety: quietly strong progress

Zero lost-time injuries across the Group and a Group LTIFR of zero. The Dry-Stack Tailings plant at Sasa is operating and, together with paste backfill, just over 60% of tailings were stored by these methods in Q2 2025. The target is 70% by 2026. No significant environmental or community incidents were reported.

Exploration and growth pipeline

• Aberdeen Minerals (28.4% owned): Phase 2B drilling under way at Arthrath; CAML will decide in Q4 2025 whether to exercise warrants to invest a further £2 million.
• CAML Exploration (80% owned): four active licences in Kazakhstan with geophysics programmes progressing; drilling decisions for 2026 expected by year end. An earn-in on a more advanced project is being pursued.

Capex guidance for 2025 is $18.0 million to $21.0 million, including $15.0 million to $17.0 million of sustaining spend and $3.0 million to $4.0 million on the DST landform. H2 capex will be higher as raise boring and landform works ramp up.

Outlook: what I’m watching in H2 2025

• Delivery against production guidance – 13,000-14,000 tonnes at Kounrad and the revised Sasa ranges of 17,000-19,000 tonnes zinc-in-concentrate and 25,000-27,000 tonnes lead-in-concentrate.
• The impact of Sasa optimisation actions from the external review on grades, recoveries and unit costs.
• Cash build, given the post-period proceeds from the NWR share sale and the absence of further 2025 withholding tax payments.
• Capital allocation – pace of the $10 million buyback and any movement on new project opportunities.

My take: balanced, with clear near-term execution tests

• Positives: world-class safety, Kounrad’s low-cost consistency, tangible tailings modernisation at Sasa, lower TCs, and a still‑healthy cash position enhanced after period end. The dividend policy reset looks prudent and the buyback adds flexibility.
• Negatives: Sasa’s grade variability cut into volumes and margins, group EBITDA and FCF fell sharply, and unit costs ticked up. Currency movements also worked against reported costs.

Net-net, this reads like a consolidation half-year. CAML has tightened capital discipline, kept shareholder returns respectable, and protected optionality for growth. The share price reaction will likely hinge on confidence that Sasa’s grade issues can be managed and that Kounrad keeps doing what it does best. If H2 shows operational traction at Sasa and copper stays supportive, the reset could age well.