Central Asia Metals Reports H1 2025 Results with Dividend Cut and $10M Share Buyback

Adjusted free cash flow dropped to $16.2 million (down 46%), reflecting cost pressure and higher cash taxes. Notably, $6.0 million of Kazakhstan withholding tax was paid in H1, with none expected in H2 2025; the company also notes a $1.4 million Kazakh corporate income tax overpayment that will offset liabilities.

By operation, Kounrad posted EBITDA of $38.3 million with a 72% margin; Sasa delivered $11.9 million at a 26% margin. EPS from continuing operations was 5.33 cents (basic).

Balance sheet: still solid, with post-period cash boost

At 30 June, cash stood at $47.7 million and the overdraft at $6.6 million. After the period end, CAML sold its New World Resources stake for $18.7 million and received a $1.6 million break fee linked to the terminated transaction. That more than offsets the H1 investment outflow. The group describes “significant financial capacity for growth”, and the language here signals the M&A appetite remains intact after stepping away from the contested NWR process.

Market backdrop and unit costs

Copper strengthened across H1, ending just shy of $10,000 per tonne. Zinc softened 7% while lead rose over 5%. Treatment charges for zinc and lead concentrates fell to multi‑year lows, which helped Sasa offset weaker head grades. Group C1 cash costs on a copper‑equivalent basis were $1.80/lb (H1 2024: $1.66/lb), reflecting lower copper‑equivalent tonnes and higher onsite costs.

Sustainability and safety: quietly strong progress

Zero lost-time injuries across the Group and a Group LTIFR of zero. The Dry-Stack Tailings plant at Sasa is operating and, together with paste backfill, just over 60% of tailings were stored by these methods in Q2 2025. The target is 70% by 2026. No significant environmental or community incidents were reported.

Exploration and growth pipeline

• Aberdeen Minerals (28.4% owned): Phase 2B drilling under way at Arthrath; CAML will decide in Q4 2025 whether to exercise warrants to invest a further £2 million.
• CAML Exploration (80% owned): four active licences in Kazakhstan with geophysics programmes progressing; drilling decisions for 2026 expected by year end. An earn-in on a more advanced project is being pursued.

Capex guidance for 2025 is $18.0 million to $21.0 million, including $15.0 million to $17.0 million of sustaining spend and $3.0 million to $4.0 million on the DST landform. H2 capex will be higher as raise boring and landform works ramp up.

Outlook: what I’m watching in H2 2025

• Delivery against production guidance – 13,000-14,000 tonnes at Kounrad and the revised Sasa ranges of 17,000-19,000 tonnes zinc-in-concentrate and 25,000-27,000 tonnes lead-in-concentrate.
• The impact of Sasa optimisation actions from the external review on grades, recoveries and unit costs.
• Cash build, given the post-period proceeds from the NWR share sale and the absence of further 2025 withholding tax payments.
• Capital allocation – pace of the $10 million buyback and any movement on new project opportunities.

My take: balanced, with clear near-term execution tests

• Positives: world-class safety, Kounrad’s low-cost consistency, tangible tailings modernisation at Sasa, lower TCs, and a still‑healthy cash position enhanced after period end. The dividend policy reset looks prudent and the buyback adds flexibility.
• Negatives: Sasa’s grade variability cut into volumes and margins, group EBITDA and FCF fell sharply, and unit costs ticked up. Currency movements also worked against reported costs.

Net-net, this reads like a consolidation half-year. CAML has tightened capital discipline, kept shareholder returns respectable, and protected optionality for growth. The share price reaction will likely hinge on confidence that Sasa’s grade issues can be managed and that Kounrad keeps doing what it does best. If H2 shows operational traction at Sasa and copper stays supportive, the reset could age well.