Cicor trims 2025 guidance: weaker Germany, stronger franc, but A&D orders are building
Cicor Technologies has cut its 2025 outlook, blaming a softer-than-expected economic backdrop, delayed customer deliveries in Germany, and the Swiss franc’s appreciation against the British pound and US dollar. Net sales and EBITDA guidance are both reduced, although order momentum – especially in Aerospace & Defence (A&D) – is picking up, with a book-to-bill ratio above 1.0 expected for 2025.
Management still expects organic growth to return in 2026 and says two major European A&D contractors are being onboarded, with first revenues in 2026 and 2027 sales expected to significantly exceed CHF 10 million. Medium-term guidance is reiterated (specific numbers were not disclosed in this announcement).
Key numbers at a glance: revised 2025 guidance
| Metric | New guidance (2025) | Prior guidance (2025) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | CHF 600 to 620 million | CHF 620 to 650 million | Lower on Germany delays and FX headwinds |
| Reported EBITDA | CHF 58 to 62 million | CHF 62 to 70 million | Reduced range versus prior |
| Adjusted EBITDA | CHF 63 to 67 million | Not disclosed | Excludes acquisition step-ups, integration and restructuring |
| Book-to-bill | Notably above 1.0 | Not disclosed | Orders outpacing shipments |
What’s driving the downgrade: Germany and FX
Cicor expected a recovery in the German EMS (electronics manufacturing services) market, particularly in industrial and medical, but that bounce has not arrived. As a result, deliveries to customers in Germany are being pushed into 2026. That is a timing issue rather than lost business, but it dents 2025 revenue and profit.
Currency is the other headwind. The Swiss franc has appreciated, especially against the pound and the dollar, which makes Swiss franc-reported sales and profits lower when translated from foreign currencies. Together, these factors pull net sales guidance down to CHF 600 to 620 million and reported EBITDA to CHF 58 to 62 million.
Book-to-bill above 1.0: orders are outrunning sales
Book-to-bill compares incoming orders to goods shipped. A ratio above 1.0 means the order book is growing. Cicor highlights an acceleration of orders in A&D and expects a 2025 book-to-bill notably above 1.0. That is a constructive signal for 2026, particularly as some 2025 German deliveries are slipping into next year.
A&D pipeline: two major European contractors onboarding
Management says two major European A&D contractors are being onboarded now. First revenues are expected in 2026, with sales in 2027 expected to significantly exceed CHF 10 million. That may not transform the group on its own, but it supports the claim of “stronger than ever” new business pipeline and underpins the expectation of a return to organic growth in 2026.
EBITDA guidance is a Takeover Code profit forecast
Because Cicor has made an offer for TT Electronics plc (“TT”) and TT is in an offer period under the UK Takeover Code, the updated EBITDA guidance counts as a “profit forecast” under Rule 28. The forecast is:
- Adjusted EBITDA: CHF 63 million to 67 million (excludes one-off acquisition step-ups, integration and restructuring).
- Reported EBITDA: CHF 58 million to 62 million (prior: CHF 62 to 70 million).
Cicor says it had to disclose today’s information on an ad hoc basis under Swiss listing rules and has not had time to procure the formal reports normally required by Rule 28. With the Takeover Panel Executive’s consent, those reports will be published no later than 31 December 2025. Until then, treat the forecast with the usual caution applied to forward-looking statements.
Why the adjusted vs reported split matters
Adjusted EBITDA strips out one-offs relating to acquisition accounting step-ups, integration, and restructuring. That gives a view of the underlying operations but, naturally, the cash cost of integration and restructuring still matters. Reported EBITDA – CHF 58 to 62 million – is the number that includes those costs and therefore tracks closer to near-term cash generation.
Offer-period housekeeping: disclosures and scrutiny
Being in an offer period puts Cicor and TT under heightened disclosure rules. For most retail investors, the key takeaway is that forecasts are more tightly controlled. The Rule 28 reports will add independent scrutiny to the EBITDA guidance shortly.
The RNS also reminds holders of the usual Rule 8 disclosure requirements for parties with 1% or more of relevant securities. If that’s not you, it’s largely administrative noise in the background.
My take: short-term drag, medium-term tailwinds
This is a classic near-term downgrade with a potentially constructive 2026 set-up. The negatives are clear: Germany has not recovered on schedule, some deliveries slip into 2026, and the strong Swiss franc is a translation drag. Reported EBITDA has been cut back into the CHF 58 to 62 million range.
On the positive side, the order backdrop looks better than the P&L implies. A book-to-bill notably above 1.0, accelerating A&D demand, and two major European A&D customers onboarding suggest the pipeline is building. Management expects a return to organic growth in 2026 and is reiterating medium-term guidance (though no figures were disclosed in this RNS).
The swing factor is execution and timing: converting the A&D pipeline, landing the German deliveries, and managing FX. Also worth watching is the forthcoming Rule 28 reporting on the profit forecast, which will formalise the forecast under Takeover Code standards.
What to watch next
- Rule 28 reports on the EBITDA forecast – due no later than 31 December 2025.
- Confirmation of 2025 book-to-bill and the year-end order book.
- Updates on onboarding the two European A&D contractors and first 2026 revenues.
- Any signs of recovery in the German industrial and medical EMS market.
- FX movements against CHF, particularly GBP and USD.
- Progress on the TT Electronics offer through the offer period.
Quick jargon check
- Net sales: revenue earned from goods and services, typically after returns and allowances.
- EBITDA: earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation – a proxy for operating profitability.
- Adjusted EBITDA: EBITDA excluding specified one-offs (here: acquisition step-ups, integration and restructuring).
- Book-to-bill: orders received divided by shipments billed; above 1.0 indicates a growing order backlog.
- UK Takeover Code Rule 28: governs how profit forecasts are presented and verified during an offer period.
