Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Posts Solid Q1 Results, Reaffirms Full-Year Guidance

Product-wise, the strongest momentum came from Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and energy drinks. Zero Sugar volume rose 10%, while energy volumes jumped 21.3%, helped by new variants, distribution gains and multipack growth.

That is encouraging because these areas tend to support both relevance and margins over time. Original Taste Coca-Cola volume fell 3.2%, so the zero-sugar transition is doing more and more of the heavy lifting.

Europe was the engine room, while APS had a slightly messy quarter

Europe did most of the heavy lifting in revenue terms. Revenue rose to €3,549 million, with revenue per unit case up 1.3%, helped by price increases in markets including France and Iberia, plus the French sugar tax.

There were some clear bright spots. Germany saw low single-digit volume growth, Great Britain delivered mid single-digit volume growth, and Monster remained strong across multiple markets.

APS was a bit more complicated. Revenue was €1,452 million and revenue per unit case slipped 0.3%, mainly because the exit of Suntory alcohol distribution in Australia and New Zealand created around a 3% drag on APS revenue per unit case.

Strip that out and the picture looks better. The company said Australia/Pacific revenue excluding alcohol rose 13.2%, and revenue per unit case excluding alcohol grew at a mid single-digit rate.

So, my read is this: APS was not weak, but the headline numbers understate the underlying trend because of a known portfolio change.

Channel mix tells you something useful about consumer behaviour

Away-from-home volume, meaning venues like restaurants, leisure and travel, rose 0.7%. Home channel volume rose 2.9%.

That tells you shoppers are still buying, but they are leaning a bit more towards take-home packs. In Europe especially, the business said transactions were slightly behind volume growth because of larger format packs and earlier Easter.

That matters because larger packs can be good for volume, but they can weigh on revenue per unit case. You can see that in Great Britain, where revenue per unit case was flat despite solid volume growth.

Dividend, buyback and cash guidance – this is where shareholder value comes in

CCEP declared a first half interim dividend of €0.82 per share, payable on 27 May 2026 to shareholders on the register by 15 May 2026. It said this represents roughly 40% of the full-year 2025 dividend.

The company also reaffirmed its 2026 target for an annualised dividend payout ratio of about 50% based on comparable earnings per share. Alongside that, it is continuing with a €1 billion share buyback for the year, with €500 million already completed as of 24 April 2026.

To my mind, this is one of the strongest parts of the update. Management is not just talking about resilience – it is backing that up with cash returns.

Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed – probably the biggest signal in this RNS

The company reaffirmed full-year guidance, and that is arguably the key takeaway. It still expects:

• Revenue growth of 3% to 4%
• Cost of sales per unit case growth of around 1.5%
• Operating profit growth of around 7%
• A comparable effective tax rate of around 26%
• Capital expenditure of around 5% of revenue
• Comparable free cash flow of at least €1.7 billion

There are a couple of useful support points here too. Commodities are hedged at around 85% for full-year 2026, which gives some protection against input cost swings, and concentrate pricing is directly linked to revenue per unit case.

Just as important is what the company did not do. It did not upgrade guidance after a strong reported quarter. That suggests management knows some of Q1 was timing-related and is staying disciplined.

What could go wrong after these Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Q1 results?

The risks are not hidden. Management said the consumer environment remains challenging, and it flagged uncertainty around the full impact of the situation in the Middle East.

There are also a few operational drags already visible in the numbers. Larger home packs diluted revenue per unit case in some markets, the Suntory alcohol exit is still affecting comparisons in APS, and sugar taxes are reshaping demand in places like France.

None of that looks unmanageable from this update, but it does explain why investors should not get carried away by the reported volume surge.

My take on the Coca-Cola Europacific Partners trading update for retail investors

This was a good quarter, and I think the market should see it that way. The business grew, gained share, kept key brands moving, declared a healthy interim dividend and stuck with full-year guidance.

The biggest positive is that the growth drivers look real enough: Zero Sugar is strong, energy is flying, Europe is performing well, and cash returns remain generous. The biggest negative is that reported Q1 volume was boosted by calendar phasing and an earlier Easter, so the underlying pace was more modest.

In plain English, this is not a story of explosive growth. It is a story of a very large, very disciplined drinks business doing what investors want it to do – steady execution, sensible pricing, good cash generation and reliable shareholder returns.

For long-term investors, that can still be a very attractive combination.