Eagle Eye Raises FY26 EBITDA Guidance After Strong H1 Performance and First OEM Deals

Eagle Eye lifts FY26 profit guidance after a stronger-than-expected H1

Eagle Eye Solutions Group has raised its FY26 adjusted EBITDA expectations after a solid first half and the first wins under its new OEM partnership. The company is rebuilding growth after losing a high-margin contract in 2025 and is leaning into cost efficiencies and higher-margin SaaS to support margins.

The headline: adjusted EBITDA for FY26 is now expected to be comfortably ahead of current market expectations of £5.9 million. Revenue guidance was not updated in this RNS.

H1 FY26 at a glance: revenue mix improving, margins recovering

Below are the key reported figures for the six months to 31 December 2025. Note that Eagle Eye splits out “underlying” numbers excluding the impact of the Neptune Retail Solutions (NRS) contract loss in June 2025, to show the trajectory of the continuing business.

Metric	H1 FY26	H1 FY25	Change
Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) – incl. NRS	£42.2m	£41.0m	+3%
ARR – excluding NRS impact	£42.2m	£32.8m	+29%
Group revenue – incl. NRS	£23.0m	£24.2m	(5)%
Group revenue – excluding NRS	£22.4m	£19.3m	+16%
SaaS revenue – incl. NRS	£19.7m	£19.5m	+1%
SaaS revenue – excluding NRS	£19.1m	£15.4m	+24%
SaaS as % of Group revenue	86%	81%	+5 percentage points
Adjusted EBITDA	£4.3m	£5.9m	(28)%
Adjusted EBITDA margin	18%	24%	(6) percentage points
Net cash (period end)	£12.1m	£11.7m	+3%

Why the mix matters

Excluding NRS, the continuing business delivered 16% revenue growth and 24% SaaS growth, underpinned by rising ARR. Including the NRS impact, H1 revenue fell 5% and EBITDA fell 28% year-on-year, highlighting the drag from the lost, high-margin contract.

Management says H1 margin performance was ahead of internal expectations, thanks to cost optimisation and the ongoing shift to higher-quality SaaS revenue. The Board still targets a 20% EBITDA margin run-rate by the end of FY26.

ARR is rebuilding: new wins and deeper customer spend

ARR rose to £42.2 million at 31 December 2025, up from £34.0 million at 30 June 2025. Underlying ARR growth was approximately 29% year-on-year excluding NRS, driven by new deals and increased volumes at existing customers such as Morrisons, Asda and Carrefour.

New multi-year wins across Eagle Eye’s AIR platform and EagleAI included:

• A three-year contract with a leading European value retailer
• A three-year contract, with a two-year extension option, with Central Thailand
• A three-year contract with a UK builders’ merchant
• A five-year contract with one of the largest independent North American food retailers
• A three-year contract with a large regional US grocery supermarket
• A multi-year contract with Wakefern, the largest retailer-owned cooperative in the US
• A three-year agreement with Kwik Trip, a US convenience store chain
• A three-year contract with FairPrice Co-Operative Ltd in Singapore, a returning customer

The company also highlighted deeper engagement with Giant Eagle and PepCo. Management calls out improving win rates and particularly strong momentum in North America.

First OEM contracts signed – a structural growth lever

Since the OEM partner added its cloud-hosted loyalty solution to its price list in November 2025, two blue-chip European retailers have signed: a global furniture retailer with over 500 stores, and a retail group in the DACH region with over 2,000 locations.

The OEM contract is transactional, so ARR is an estimate. Eagle Eye expects combined ARR of approximately £2.0 million from these two clients initially, with revenue generation from FY27. This estimated amount is included in the Group’s reported ARR of £42.2 million.

Why it matters: OEM routes can materially expand distribution without proportional sales costs, opening new sectors and geographies. The caveat is timing – management still guides to “material revenue” from FY27, not this year.

Costs, cash and capital allocation

Eagle Eye was cash generative in H1 with strong collections and ended the period with £12.1 million of net cash, up from £11.7 million a year earlier, after investing £0.6 million in share buybacks. The balance sheet supports continued selective investment in Q3 while maintaining the exit margin target.

Adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% is below last year’s 24%, reflecting the NRS loss, but management says margin recovery was ahead of expectations in H1 and expects a 20% run-rate by year end.

Outlook: FY26 profits upgraded, FY27 growth ambition reiterated

The Board now expects FY26 adjusted EBITDA to be comfortably ahead of the current market consensus of £5.9 million. Consensus revenue of £45.1 million was cited but not upgraded in this RNS.

Looking further out, management remains confident of returning to double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in FY27, supported by momentum in North America and Asia and the ramp from the OEM channel.

Next milestone: interim results are due on 17 March 2026.

My take: what’s good, what to watch

Positives

• Clear beat on profit expectations for FY26 driven by cost discipline and SaaS mix.
• Underlying growth is strong: 29% ARR growth ex-NRS and 24% SaaS revenue growth ex-NRS.
• OEM channel delivering early wins exactly when expected, expanding sector reach.
• Healthy net cash of £12.1 million, cash generative, and modest buybacks signal confidence.

Watch-outs

• Headline H1 revenue down 5% and EBITDA down 28% year-on-year due to the loss of a high-margin contract.
• OEM ARR is an estimate and revenue is weighted to FY27 – execution and timing risk remain.
• Management will “selectively” increase investment in H2; the balance between growth spend and the 20% margin run-rate will be in focus.
• Revenue guidance was not upgraded in this update; upside appears driven by margin rather than top-line changes.

Quick jargon buster

• ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) – the annualised value of subscription-like revenues at period end, a key forward indicator for SaaS businesses.
• SaaS – software sold as a subscription, usually higher-margin and more predictable than services revenue.
• Adjusted EBITDA – a proxy for operating profit that excludes depreciation, amortisation, interest, tax, restructuring costs and share-based payments.
• Run-rate margin – the margin level implied by the current cost base and revenue mix as you exit the period.
• OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) – a partner that bundles or sells your technology as part of its own offering, expanding distribution.

Bottom line

Eagle Eye is navigating the NRS setback with a stronger sales engine, improving SaaS mix and disciplined costs. The OEM channel has kicked off with credible names, and ARR momentum supports the Board’s confidence on FY26 profits and FY27 growth. The proof points to watch next are H2 delivery versus the 20% exit margin run-rate and tangible progress on OEM revenue as FY27 approaches.