Entain Reiterates FY25 Guidance as Q3 Trading Update Shows Strong Momentum

Q3 2025: Entain holds guidance as momentum builds

Entain’s Q3 update lands well. Total Group Net Gaming Revenue (NGR) including 50% of BetMGM rose by 6% on a reported basis and 7% at constant currency, with Online (ex US) up 5% reported and 6% constant currency. Management reiterated FY25 guidance, while BetMGM upgraded its own outlook and will start sending cash back to its parents this year.

There was a drag from “customer friendly” sports results in September – bookie-speak for punter wins – but the underlying picture is one of steady growth and improving quality in the mix.

Headline numbers worth your attention

Metric	Q3 performance
Total Group NGR (incl. 50% of BetMGM)	+6% reported, +7% constant currency
Group NGR (ex US)	+4% reported, +5% constant currency
Online NGR (ex US)	+5% reported, +6% constant currency
Retail NGR	+3% reported, +3% constant currency
UK & Ireland NGR	+8% constant currency (Online +15%, Retail +2%)
International NGR	+1% constant currency
Entain CEE NGR	+10% constant currency (Online +9%, Retail +11%)
BetMGM Q3 net revenue	$667m, up +23% constant currency (iGaming +21%, Online Sports +36%)

Management notes a 1-2 percentage point hit to Online growth from adverse sports margins in September. Despite that, guidance stays intact.

BetMGM is the star performer – and now a cash contributor

BetMGM is clearly ahead of plan. Q3 net revenue rose 23% at constant currency to $667m, driven by a stronger sports product and leading iGaming. On the back of this, FY25 guidance is raised to at least $2.75bn of net revenue and approximately $200m of EBITDA.

The kicker: BetMGM will begin distributing excess cash to its parents in 2025, with at least $200m anticipated this year. For Entain shareholders, that is tangible evidence of a profitable, scaling US JV moving from cash consumer to cash generator.

Why it matters: cash from BetMGM supports group-level flexibility and underlines the value of Entain’s 50% stake. It also reinforces the narrative that the US is no longer just about market share – it is about sustainable profitability.

Core business (ex US): steady growth despite tough sports results

Online (ex US) grew 6% at constant currency, showcasing underlying momentum even as September’s results favoured customers. Retail was up 3%, continuing its steady recovery.

• UK & Ireland: +8% constant currency, with Online +15% on stronger player values, volumes and market share gains; Retail +2%.
• International: +1% constant currency. Brazil fell 11% due to adverse sports margins despite 14% volume growth. Australia was down 6% for similar reasons. Italy advanced 6% (Online +5%, Retail +8%).
• Entain CEE: +10% constant currency, with Croatia highlighted as ahead of expectations. Both Online (+9%) and Retail (+11%) contributed.
• Double-digit Online NGR growth in Georgia, New Zealand, Spain, Canada, Austria and Greece.

The pattern is familiar: when sports margins swing against operators, top-line growth moderates. Entain’s breadth across markets and products helps smooth these shocks, and the quarter still landed positive growth across the board.

Guidance and margins: management’s message is clear

Entain reiterates FY25 Online NGR growth of approximately 7% at constant currency and expects an Online EBITDA margin of 25-26%. Group EBITDA guidance is maintained at £1,100m to £1,150m despite September’s headwind.

BetMGM now guides to at least $2.75bn net revenue and approximately $200m EBITDA in FY25, with at least $200m of cash distributions to parents this year. Importantly, Entain continues to expect strong double-digit growth in FY25 Total Group EBITDA when including its 50% share of BetMGM.

Longer term, the company is targeting more than £0.5bn of annual adjusted cash flow from 2028. That is not immediate, but it frames the strategy around cash generation and scale benefits.

What I like – and what to watch

Positives

• Guidance held: Reaffirming £1,100m-£1,150m Group EBITDA despite a margin blip shows resilience.
• UK & Ireland Online strength: +15% constant currency suggests product and CRM improvements are biting, with share gains.
• BetMGM inflection: Upgraded outlook and cash distributions are the standout positives – shifting from promise to delivery.
• Diversification: Double-digit growth in multiple international markets and a solid CEE contribution reduce single-market risk.

Watch-outs

• Sports margin volatility: September took 1-2pp off Online growth. If Q4 throws up more “customer friendly” results, there could be near-term noise.
• Brazil and Australia: Both markets were negative on NGR in Q3 due to margins. Sustained underperformance would be a concern, even with volume growth.
• Execution into Q4: Peak sporting calendar and US NFL season are important. Management says the Group is well placed, but delivery matters.
• Regulatory backdrop: Not discussed in this update. Any changes would be a separate swing factor.

Investor takeaway: a solid, confidence-building update

This is a net positive print. Entain shows broad-based growth, keeps FY25 guidance intact, and delivers an upgraded, cash-generating BetMGM. The September sports result headwind is a reminder that margins move around, but the diversified engine kept ticking over.

If UK Online momentum holds and International stabilises after the sports margin noise, the setup into Q4 and 2026 looks constructive. The prospect of more than £0.5bn of annual adjusted cash flow from 2028 adds a useful long-term anchor.

In short: steady progress where it counts, with the US JV now paying its way. That combination typically earns management a bit more benefit of the doubt.

Quick glossary

• NGR (Net Gaming Revenue): revenue after paying out customer winnings.
• EBITDA: earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, share-based payments and share of JV income (pre-separately disclosed items).
• Constant currency (cc): growth calculated using the same exchange rates as the prior period to strip out FX effects.
• pp (percentage points): the absolute change in a margin or rate (e.g. from 10% to 12% is +2pp).