Fresnillo Q3 2025: silver softer, gold resilient, guidance intact
Fresnillo’s third quarter was broadly as planned. The headline: silver volumes stepped down as expected after the closure of San Julián DOB, while gold stayed solid and year-to-date production points to the upper end of guidance. Management reiterated full-year guidance across all metals and left 2026-27 expectations unchanged.
The operational story is mine-specific: ventilation constraints at Saucito, lower grades at several assets per mine plans, and continued outperformance from Herradura on gold. There’s also a notable strategic tweak at Ciénega, where zinc concentrate production has been stopped after an economic review.
Key production numbers at a glance
| Metric | 3Q25 | 2Q25 | % QoQ | 3Q24 | % YoY | YTD25 | YTD24 | % YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total silver incl. Silverstream (koz) | 11,681 | 12,506 | (6.6) | 14,439 | (19.1) | 36,563 | 42,607 | (14.2) |
| Silverstream (koz) | 195 | 452 | (56.9) | 552 | (64.7) | 1,134 | 1,566 | (27.6) |
| Gold (oz) | 151,256 | 157,735 | (4.1) | 156,759 | (3.5) | 465,096 | 427,631 | 8.8 |
| Lead (t) | 15,359 | 15,152 | 1.4 | 17,707 | (13.3) | 45,541 | 49,536 | (8.1) |
| Zinc (t) | 24,735 | 28,403 | (12.9) | 32,297 | (23.4) | 78,387 | 87,695 | (10.6) |
Guidance check: what Q4 needs to deliver
Full-year guidance is unchanged: silver 47.5-54.5 moz (including Silverstream), gold 550-590 koz, lead 56-62 kt, zinc 93-103 kt. Management expects gold to trend to the upper end. In silver-equivalent terms (converting gold at 80:1 only), total production is guided at 91-102 million ounces.
- Silver: YTD of 36.6 moz implies Q4 needs 10.9-17.9 moz to meet guidance. Q3 was 11.7 moz, so the range looks attainable.
- Gold: YTD of 465.1 koz implies Q4 needs 84.9-124.9 koz. With 151.3 koz delivered in Q3 and Herradura still high grading, the upper-end comment stacks up.
Costs, unit cash costs and capex were not disclosed in this RNS.
Mine-by-mine: where the quarter was won and lost
Herradura – the gold workhorse keeps doing the heavy lifting
Gold production of 87,389 oz fell 9.0% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year as prior period pad recoveries normalised and ore volumes stayed selective. The strategy is working on a year-to-date basis: 284,820 oz, up 23.5% thanks to higher grades from improved selectivity. Silver by-product was 140 koz, up 6.9% QoQ.
2025 gold grade guidance remains 0.50-0.70 g/t. The mine continues to set the tone for group gold, and the YTD uplift is the key reason gold guidance looks comfortable.
Saucito – ventilation and equipment availability bite
Silver output of 3,387 koz was down 4.6% QoQ and 8.4% YoY, mainly because slower mining cycles required more ventilation in high-temperature areas and equipment availability was reduced. By-product gold rose 6.3% QoQ to 18,789 oz on higher grades, but is lower year-on-year on fewer tonnes processed.
Development rates improved to 2,520 m per month. 2025 grade ranges: silver 200-220 g/t, gold 0.90-1.10 g/t. A quicker resolution of the ventilation bottleneck would be a clear positive for Q4.
Juanicipio (attributable) – lower silver grades, better gold
Silver production of 2,426 koz rose 3.0% QoQ on slightly better grades and more ore processed, but was 11.3% below 3Q24 due to lower grades per plan. Gold was the bright spot at 6,599 oz, up 18.2% QoQ and 9.1% YoY on higher grade and recovery.
Pyrite concentrates now go to Saucito for processing, with attributable pyrite-derived output of 79 koz silver and 126 oz gold included this quarter. 2025 grade ranges: silver 380-430 g/t, gold 1.2-1.4 g/t.
Fresnillo mine – steady silver, softer gold year-on-year
Silver was essentially flat versus Q2 at 2,416 koz, down 6.7% year-on-year on fewer tonnes. Gold rose 4.9% QoQ to 9,597 oz but is lower year-on-year. Development advanced to 3,449 m per month, aided by better equipment availability. 2025 grades guided at 160-180 g/t silver and 0.60-0.70 g/t gold.
Ciénega – pivoting to gold, stopping zinc concentrate
Gold production of 11,170 oz was up 17.1% QoQ and 25.7% YoY, helped by higher grades from the Victoria complex and improved leach recovery via higher cyanide concentration. Silver dropped to 536 koz (-29.8% QoQ, -56.0% YoY) due to lower grades, lower recoveries from higher oxide content, and fewer tonnes.
After a profitability review, zinc concentrate production ceased from 3Q25. The contribution was deemed marginal, so stopping it should simplify the flow sheet and may support margins even if by-product tonnes fall.
San Julián Veins – lower grades per plan
Gold and silver both eased quarter-on-quarter on lower grades: 11,622 oz gold (-16.0%) and 1,974 koz silver (-11.8%). Year to date, gold is up 3.6% on better plant availability and maintenance optimisation. 2025 grades: silver 210-230 g/t, gold 1.10-1.30 g/t.
Noche Buena – residual leaching continues
As mining ended in May 2023, the site is in closure with pad recoveries of 4,929 oz gold in Q3. Year to date: 13,610 oz.
Why silver fell and why it matters
The 6.6% quarter-on-quarter dip in attributable silver (including Silverstream) to 11.7 moz was driven by three things the company flagged in advance: the cessation of San Julián DOB, lower grades and lower recoveries at Ciénega, and fewer tonnes at Saucito due to ventilation and equipment availability. Juanicipio’s slightly better grades helped, but not enough to offset the broader headwinds.
Lower silver volume matters because it reduces by-product credits and spreads fixed costs over fewer ounces. That said, Fresnillo is guiding to 47.5-54.5 moz for the year and Q4 only needs to match or slightly beat Q3 to land within the range.
By-products: lead stable, zinc softer
Lead ticked up 1.4% QoQ to 15,359 t, mainly on higher grades at Juanicipio. Zinc fell 12.9% QoQ to 24,735 t on lower tonnes and grades at Saucito and lower grades and recoveries at Fresnillo. Both metals are down year-on-year, reflecting grade and volume pressure and the ending of San Julián DOB. With Ciénega exiting zinc, don’t expect help from that corner in Q4.
Safety and outlook
Fresnillo reiterates safety as its absolute priority and continues to aim for Zero Fatalities. The RNS does not disclose incident statistics. Operationally, focus areas for Q4 are clear: keep Herradura’s selectivity delivering higher grades, resolve Saucito’s ventilation constraints, and maintain the improved development rates at Fresnillo and Saucito.
My take: cautiously positive, with eyes on Saucito and grades
On balance, this is a steady update. The negatives are known and largely mine-plan driven: San Julián DOB is gone, Saucito’s ventilation limits throughput, and silver grades are softer at Juanicipio year-on-year. The positives are material: gold is trending to the upper end of guidance, Herradura’s strategy is paying off, development metres are improving, and guidance across all metals is maintained.
For investors, Q4 should be about delivery rather than surprises. If Saucito’s constraints ease and Herradura stays selective, Fresnillo can close the year within guidance bands and benefit from “consistently strong” precious metal prices, as the CEO put it. Costs will be the next piece of the puzzle – not disclosed here – but the operational set-up suggests a solid run-in to year-end.
