FY2025 results – loss widens while Phulbari approval remains the key catalyst
GCM Resources has published its final results for the year to 30 June 2025. The headline is simple: the business remains pre-revenue and deeply focused on securing Government of Bangladesh approval for the Phulbari Coal and Power Project. Costs nudged up, funding remains tight, and the auditor flagged going concern uncertainties. Against that, the policy mood music in Bangladesh turned notably more supportive of domestic coal during 2025, and GCM deepened ties with PowerChina to be ready to move fast if the green light comes.
Key financials and cash runway
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Loss after tax | £2,149,000 | £1,388,000 |
| Administrative expenses | £847,000 | £807,000 |
| Pre-development expenditure (expensed) | £850,000 | £90,000 |
| Finance costs | £541,000 | £494,000 |
| Capitalised exploration and evaluation | £516,000 | £443,000 |
| Cash at 30 June | £1,310,000 | £1,658,000 |
| Cash at report date | £922,000 | |
| Borrowings (Polo loan, incl. interest) | £6,198,000 | £5,657,000 |
| Basic loss per share | 0.7p | 0.6p |
The larger loss mainly reflects renewed consultant contracts and one-off fees (£850,000 vs £90,000). Cash decreased by £348,000 over the year despite a £1.0 million placing in March 2025. Management says current cash is expected to cover immediate needs until around June/July 2026 based on forecasts, but not a full 12 months from the report date – so additional funding is expected to be explored over the next six months.
Phulbari project update – policy tailwinds and partner readiness
Phulbari remains the core asset: a 572 million tonne JORC-compliant coal resource in north-west Bangladesh. The proposal is an integrated open-pit mine designed to produce over 15 Mtpa of thermal coal and semi-soft coking coal, supporting up to 6,600 MW of high-efficiency, low-emission (HELE) power generation. Government approval is required before development can commence.
Bangladesh energy policy shifted meaningfully in 2025
- Coal Development Forum (27 February 2025): consensus that Bangladesh must use its domestic coal. Phulbari was recognised as the most advanced, near-term project.
- BPDB policy (published 8 May 2025): allows merchant power plants to develop supporting coal mines, permits direct power sales beyond traditional PPAs, encourages foreign investors, and implies support for selling surplus coal domestically to reduce imports.
- BIDA (27 August 2025): energy diversification including local coal was flagged as a priority, with work underway to enable the next government to proceed with coal extraction.
- Integrated Master Plan: an updated national power and energy roadmap was expected by December 2025.
In short, the policy backdrop became more accommodating to domestic coal development. That matters because Bangladesh currently imports nearly all its thermal coal, with knock-on costs in FX, freight and power tariffs.
Project economics and development approach
- Economic model updated with SLR Consulting: management points to a project IRR of 20-30% for project equity under current assumptions. The model suggests over US$8 billion in taxes and royalties to the Government over a 35-year life.
- EPC in place: an EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) contract with PowerChina for mine infrastructure and overburden stripping is signed. Scope includes selective mining and stockpiling of industrial mineral co-products to generate early cash flow ahead of coal extraction.
- Contract mining strategy: switching to contract mining is intended to reduce upfront capex and execution risk by using experienced contractors.
- Renewables integration: a phased 2,000 MW solar power park is planned to support “Green Mine” ambitions with net-zero operational emissions. Separately, advisory scope now also considers an adjunct Solar Power Park of up to 4,500 MW ultimate capacity at the site.
If approvals arrive, GCM’s stated strategy is to link the mine to existing and planned coal-fired plants, potentially supplying a significant share of Bangladesh’s 8,000 MW installed and planned capacity.
Funding, Polo loan and going concern
Funding is the pressure point. GCM raised approximately £1.0 million in March 2025 at 3.0 pence per share for working capital. At the same time, the company remains reliant on a loan facility originally provided by Polo Resources Ltd.
- Loan facility: £3.5 million facility; £3.2 million utilised. Accrued interest brought the balance to £6,198,000 at 30 June 2025.
- Interest rate: increased over time to 18% effective 25 March 2025.
- Repayment terms: the lender agreed not to request cash repayment for 5 years from 26 March 2021; from 26 March 2026 repayment may be requested. The lender may also request conversion at 5.14 pence per share (subject to approvals).
- Polo’s status: Polo Resources Ltd is currently dissolved in the BVI. While dissolved, the facility cannot be called and no repayments can be requested. GCM expects Polo to be restored, but timing and outcome are uncertain.
The auditor highlighted a material uncertainty over going concern given the need to secure additional funding and the loan maturity profile. There was no modification to the audit opinion, but the caveat is important.
Governance, brokers and operations
- Allenby Capital appointed as Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker (15 November 2024).
- COO Gary Lye stepped down from the Board (26 November 2024) to focus on Bangladesh operations as COO (non-board) and CEO of Asia Energy Corporation (Bangladesh) Pty Ltd.
- PowerChina MoU extended to 6 December 2025 on the same terms, reinforcing development cooperation.
- Consulting agreements renewed to support stakeholder engagement, PowerChina relations and financing, expiring 31 December 2025.
- AGM at 11.00 a.m. on 17 December 2025, QEII Centre, Westminster.
Risks to watch
- Approval risk: Phulbari still requires Government approval. The £44.3 million intangible asset is ultimately contingent on that approval; if not granted, impairment would be likely.
- Funding risk: current cash is expected to last into June/July 2026 on forecasts, but not 12 months from the report date. The company plans to explore funding within six months, targeting completion by May 2026.
- Polo loan risk: restoration of Polo is outside GCM’s control. If restored and repayment is requested from March 2026, GCM would need new funds unless equity conversion is elected.
- Execution risk: even with approval, executing a large-scale open-pit mine and integrated logistics/power strategy in Bangladesh will be complex.
What this means for shareholders
There are clear positives. Bangladesh’s policy stance moved in GCM’s favour, the EPC with PowerChina shows project readiness, and the updated model points to robust economics (20-30% IRR) if delivered as envisaged. The contract mining route should also trim early capex and risk.
The flip side is equally clear. Without approval, none of the economics matter. Funding is tight, the auditor has waved the going-concern flag, and the Polo loan remains a high-cost liability with an uncertain counterparty status. In my view, this remains a binary, policy-driven story – high potential if approval lands and financing is stitched together, but with real dilution and execution risk along the way.
Upcoming catalysts to watch
- Bangladesh Integrated Master Plan update – expected December 2025.
- GCM AGM – 17 December 2025.
- Bangladesh national elections – scheduled for February 2026.
- Progress updates on Phulbari approvals with the incoming government.
- Funding actions in H1 2026 and any developments on the Polo loan position.
Bottom line: Phulbari is closer to the policy crosshairs than it has been in years, and GCM looks operationally ready. But until the approval ink dries and the balance sheet is bolstered, expect volatility and keep position sizes sensible.
