Golden Prospect Precious Metals Reports 170.5% NAV Return in 2025 Amid Portfolio Manager Resignation

The trust expects more M&A in 2026 and has tilted towards developers over producers to capture potential take-outs and re-ratings. In short, the team leaned into the part of the market with the most torque to rising metals.

Subscription rights, dilution and fresh firepower

November’s annual subscription rights allowed holders to buy 1 new share for every 5 at 48p. Demand was heavy and had to be scaled to 78.21% due to an €8 million cap. Applications totalled 13,895,183 shares, pared back to 10,867,374, with a rump placing of 3,718,555. In total, 14,585,929 new shares were issued, taking the share count to 107,834,428 and giving the managers more capital to deploy.

This activity diluted NAV by 6.7%, which gearing gains more than offset. The next subscription price for 2026 is set at 104.63p – helpful framing for where management hopes the market will be by November.

Discount to NAV and marketing momentum

The discount averaged 17.1% in 2025 versus 20.0% in 2024. A short-lived 0.9% premium arrived after the summer surge, but the year closed at an 18.0% discount. For a trust that just delivered 170.5% NAV total return and was named the AIC’s top performing investment trust of the year, that discount looks punchy.

Marketing stepped up with IR support from Tavistock and press endorsements, and the trust picked up two awards in late 2025. If performance remains strong and the manager situation is resolved cleanly, the discount has room to tighten.

Costs, governance and the Saba standstill

Scale helped the Ongoing Charges Ratio – essentially the annual cost of running the trust – fall to 1.99% from 2.21%. There were also meaningful Board changes: Helen Green joined as Non-Executive Director and Audit Chair, and Chris Waldron joined the Board on 26 March 2026. The Chair plans to step down at the AGM, with Monica Tepes expected to take over, subject to shareholder approval.

On activism risk, a standstill agreement with Saba Capital runs until the 2028 AGM, under which Saba has agreed not to call general meetings or vote against specified ordinary course resolutions. That reduces the likelihood of a distracting campaign during the next phase of the cycle.

Macro drivers: central banks, the dollar and the silver rollercoaster

Central banks remained big buyers, with gold now exceeding US treasuries as the largest central bank holding via purchases and price appreciation. The US dollar fell 9.4% in 2025 and policymakers appear more open to a weaker dollar to support domestic manufacturing – generally a tailwind for gold.

Silver was a wild ride. After a 140% spike from late November 2025 to mid-January 2026 and a 68% rise in January alone, it sharply reversed. The managers highlight China’s role and tightness in the supply chain. Their preference is for silver developers that have shown lower volatility than the metal.

Outlook: oil shock risk, rate path and M&A potential

Into early 2026, the trust reduced gearing to a neutral 3.0%. Gold pulled back from about $5,278/oz at end February to roughly $4,700/oz as conflict-related closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil from $73/bbl to $110/bbl and nudged inflation expectations higher. The managers note that gold often sells off initially during stress, then tends to perform strongly over the following 12 months.

Stagflation risk is back on the table if oil spikes further. They expect central banks to remain net buyers of gold, while the interest rate stance under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will matter for the dollar and treasuries. The trust has reduced exposure to miners most sensitive to higher oil, but acknowledges the market’s focus on cost creep.

My take: superb execution, clear catalysts, mind the manager handover

Positives:

• Standout performance versus both gold and peer ETFs.
• Discount still wide at 18.0% year end despite awards and outperformance.
• Costs trending down and net assets now around £134 million, improving liquidity and scale.
• Positioning skewed to developers with potential M&A upside.

Watch-outs:

• Portfolio manager resignations at CQS introduce uncertainty until the Board confirms the long-term setup.
• Silver and oil price volatility can whipsaw miner margins and sentiment.
• Further subscription exercises can be dilutive, though they also add firepower when NAV is rising.

Overall, this is a high-beta play on precious metals with a proven 2025. If the Board lands a credible long-term management solution and metals hold firm, the combination of earnings momentum at miners, potential M&A and a still-noticeable discount could remain attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Where to read more

You can dive into the full Annual Report and Accounts here: Golden Prospect Precious Metals Annual Report 2025.