Greggs trading update 2026: improved sales, steady guidance, and a few important caveats
Greggs has started 2026 in decent nick. In the first 19 weeks of the year, total sales rose 7.5% to £800 million, while like-for-like sales – that is, sales from comparable company-managed shops trading in both periods – increased by 2.5%.
The more encouraging bit is the recent trend. Like-for-like growth improved to 3.3% in the most recent 10 weeks, which suggests momentum has picked up rather than faded. For a business selling everyday food in a tight consumer market, that matters.
The headline message from this RNS is fairly simple: Greggs is trading better, costs are under control, and the board has not changed expectations for the full year. That is positive, even if it is not a blockbuster upgrade.
Key numbers from the Greggs RNS
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total sales | £800 million |
| Total sales growth | 7.5% |
| 2025 comparator sales | £744 million |
| Like-for-like sales growth, first 19 weeks | 2.5% |
| Like-for-like sales growth, most recent 10 weeks | 3.3% |
| Gross new shops opened | 41 |
| Net openings | 20 |
| Total shops trading | 2,759 |
| Full-year net opening target | Around 120 |
| Expected 2026 cost inflation on a like-for-like basis | Circa 3% |
Greggs like-for-like sales growth improved in recent weeks
The standout feature here is the improving sales run-rate. A 2.5% like-for-like increase for the year to date is respectable, but the move to 3.3% in the latest 10 weeks is better. It tells investors that trading did not simply hold up – it strengthened.
Total sales growth of 7.5% to £800 million was also helped by new shop openings and contributions from franchise and grocery partnerships. That gives Greggs more than one engine of growth, which is useful when footfall and consumer confidence can be unpredictable.
Management also said profit progress has been encouraging so far. There is an important footnote though: this was helped partly by a weak comparator period. In plain English, the business is doing better, but it is also being measured against an easier period last year.
That does not make the improvement unreal, but it does mean investors should avoid getting carried away. This is a solid update, not a dramatic change in the investment case.
Greggs menu innovation is clearly helping sales momentum
Greggs is making a big point of product development, and it looks justified. The new Chicken Roll is described as a standout launch and has quickly become a customer favourite, sitting alongside the Sausage Roll and Vegan Roll.
There is more going on than one product. Greggs has also pushed its hot food and pizza range with products such as the Tandoori Chicken Pizza Slice, expanded salads with Chicken Caesar and Chicken, Grains and Greens, and refreshed drinks with iced coffees, lemonades, refreshers and Matcha.
Why does that matter to investors? Because menu innovation is one of the cleanest ways to keep customers engaged without relying purely on price. If Greggs can attract younger customers with products like Matcha while also keeping its core customer base loyal, that is a useful balancing act.
My read is that this is a quiet positive. Greggs is showing it can evolve the offer without drifting too far from what made it popular in the first place: familiar, convenient, relatively affordable food.
Greggs shop openings and estate growth remain on track
Store expansion is still a major part of the growth plan. Greggs opened 41 new shops in the period, including 17 with franchise partners, and closed 21 shops, including 11 relocations. That left it with 2,759 shops trading at 9 May 2026.
Of those, 2,141 were company-managed and 618 were franchised. The company is still targeting around 120 net openings for the full year, so the rollout strategy remains intact.
One interesting detail is the upcoming opening at Tenerife South Airport with Lagardère Travel Retail. This will be Greggs’ first shop in an airport outside the UK. It is not a game-changing number on day one, but it is strategically interesting because it tests whether the brand can travel in busy international locations.
If that works, it could open up more franchise opportunities over time. If it does not, the RNS does not suggest any material financial risk from this single site.
Supply chain investment in Derby and Kettering supports long-term expansion
Greggs is also continuing to build the infrastructure needed for a larger business. Its new frozen product manufacturing and logistics facility in Derby is progressing in line with plan, while the internal fit-out of the new National Distribution Centre in Kettering is moving ahead quickly.
The Derby site is due to be operational in 2026 and Kettering in 2027. For investors, this matters because shop growth is only sustainable if the supply chain can keep up. More sites need more production, more distribution and fewer bottlenecks.
The catch is that these investments bring costs before the full benefits arrive. Greggs explicitly said the new Derby site will primarily affect operating costs in the second half of 2026. So while the first half should look good, the second half may carry a heavier cost burden.
Greggs cost inflation outlook: stable for now, but geopolitical risks remain
One reassuring line in the update is that there has been no change to overall cost inflation expectations. Greggs still expects around 3% inflation on a like-for-like basis in 2026.
It also has some protection in place. The company says it has forward purchase agreements covering circa five months of food and packaging needs, 85% of 2026 energy and fuel requirements are fixed in price, and circa 50% of 2027 energy and fuel requirements are fixed.
That is sensible risk management and should help reduce unpleasant surprises in the near term. However, Greggs also flagged the conflict in the Middle East as a potential source of higher cost inflation through the end of 2026 and into 2027 if it continues and becomes prolonged.
That warning is worth noting. It is not a profit warning, but it is a reminder that external cost pressures have not disappeared.
What this Greggs RNS means for retail investors
On balance, this is a positive trading update. Sales are growing, like-for-like performance has improved, menu innovation seems to be landing well, and management has kept a lid on costs so far.
There are also no nasty surprises in guidance. The board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged, which usually tells you management is comfortable with current trading.
- The positives: improving like-for-like sales, strong total sales growth, continued estate expansion, and stable cost inflation guidance.
- The watch-outs: first half profit progress benefits from a weak comparator, Derby costs hit the second half, and geopolitical pressures could push inflation higher later on.
- The bigger picture: Greggs still looks like a business leaning into value, convenience and product innovation at a time when many consumers remain price-conscious.
If you are a retail investor, the key takeaway is that Greggs appears to be executing well without changing the script. That may sound a bit boring, but in a difficult consumer environment, boring can be a very good thing.
There is no upgrade here, so this update probably does not justify wild excitement on its own. But it does reinforce the view that Greggs is still growing sensibly, investing for the future, and managing inflation better than many would have feared.
For now, that is enough to keep the story looking intact.
