HydrogenOne 2024 Results: A Bumpy Ride in the Clean Hydrogen Revolution
Let’s cut straight to the chase: HydrogenOne’s 2024 results aren’t pretty. A 12.2% NAV decline, a share price that’s lost 56% of its value, and a jaw-dropping 76% discount to NAV. But here’s the kicker – beneath the surface, there’s a fascinating story about an industry in flux, strategic gambles, and green shoots in clean hydrogen’s $100bn+ policy-backed future.
The Numbers That Matter
- NAV per share: 90.39p (down from 102.99p)
- Portfolio revenue growth: +14.9% to £85m
- GHG emissions avoided: 132,839 tonnes (576x the fund’s own footprint)
- Cash position: £3.1m (down from £4.7m)
What Went Wrong? The Triple Whammy
1. The HH2E Debacle
The German green hydrogen developer’s collapse wiped 6.9p per share off NAV. A cautionary tale of over-leverage (€59m in shareholder loans) and failure to secure gas offtake agreements. Chairman Simon Hogan insists this is company-specific – but markets aren’t convinced.
2. NanoSUN’s Swift Restructuring
The hydrogen transport specialist became a £4.2m write-down casualty of delayed UK decarbonisation targets. Now reborn as Swift Hydrogen, it’s essentially an IP holding company – a strategic retreat in all but name.
3. Macro Headwinds Meet Micro Pain
While the fund cites “subdued growth investment trust sentiment”, the reality is harsher. The Solactive Hydrogen Economy Index fell 32.8% in 2024. HydrogenOne’s 76% discount now sits in the same ballpark as early-stage biotech trusts – hardly company-specific.
Green Shoots (Literally)
Before you write this off as another ESG sob story, consider:
- Sunfire’s €500m War Chest: The German electrolyser giant secured RWE’s 100MW contract and is eyeing 500MW projects
- HiiROC’s Thermal Plasma Breakthrough: 400kg/day hydrogen units now live at Cemex’s Rugby plant
- Policy Tailwinds: $100bn+ in global hydrogen subsidies announced in 2024
The J-Curve Watch
Portfolio companies raised £500m in 2024 (equity + grants). Sunfire’s valuation increased £5m despite sector carnage. This isn’t a portfolio-wide meltdown – it’s a brutal shakeout separating viable tech from wishful thinking.
The Discount Dilemma
A 76% discount screams “broken trust”. The failed Cordiant Capital merger attempt and shareholder pressure mean one thing’s certain – 2025 needs exits. The Gen2 Energy sale (at carrying value) showed it’s possible, but HH2E’s collapse proves execution risk remains sky-high.
Josh’s Take: Weathering the Storm
This isn’t 2021’s hydrogen hype cycle. We’re seeing:
- Survival of the Fittest: Sunfire/HiiROC vs HH2E shows which business models work
- Strategic Pivot Potential: Strohm’s shift to CCS pipelines exemplifies adaptation
- Valuation Reality Check: Private portfolio trades at 2.1x revenue vs listed peers’ 3.8x
The £9bn global hydrogen investment figure for 2024 (up 50% YoY) tells the real story – capital’s flowing, but selectively. For brave contrarians, that 76% discount could either be a value trap or the ultimate entry point. Me? I’m watching Sunfire’s 500MW FEED study like a hawk.
Bottom Line
HydrogenOne’s 2024 was a perfect storm of sector growing pains and execution missteps. But with 91% EU Taxonomy alignment and 274k+ tonnes of CO2 avoided since IPO, this remains the purest play on hydrogen’s make-or-break decade. Just pack your risk tolerance.
