Ithaca Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Reaffirms $500M Dividend

Q3 2025 at a glance – production up, costs down, dividend reaffirmed

Ithaca Energy has posted a strong year-to-date update to 30 September 2025, underpinned by the first full period after the Eni UK business combination. Production has more than doubled year on year, unit costs have fallen sharply, and the balance sheet has been bolstered. Management is sticking to all 2025 guidance and reaffirming a $500 million dividend for the year.

There are moving parts – extended maintenance at Captain and a few well start-ups pushed to December – but the group exits the year with higher installed capacity and a 2026 set-up that looks stronger than it did in the summer.

Key numbers investors should know

Metric	YTD Sep 2025	YTD Sep 2024
Average production (boe/d)	114,928	52,501
Adjusted EBITDAX ($m)	1,501.2	758.5
Profit before tax ($m)	668.1	183.7
(Loss)/profit for the period ($m)	(119.1)	134.7
Adjusted net income ($m)	226.9	181.9
Operating cash flow ($m)	1,279.6	792.5
Unit opex ($/boe)	19.1	28.9
Available liquidity ($m)	1,664.3	1,015.1 (Q4 2024)
Adjusted net debt ($m)	1,063.8	884.9 (Q4 2024)
Pro forma leverage	0.50x	0.45x (Q4 2024)

Note on definitions: EBITDAX is EBITDA before exploration expense. Opex is operating expenditure per barrel of oil equivalent. All are as disclosed in the RNS.

Operational performance – heavy maintenance, higher capacity into 2026

Production averaged 114.9 kboe/d year to date with an intense turnaround season in Q3. Twelve of 15 planned maintenance events landed on or ahead of plan. Captain ran longer due to added scope, with production fully back in the first week of November.

Management reiterates 2025 production guidance of 119 – 125 kboe/d, now trending to the bottom of the range. The drivers are the extended Captain shutdown and three high-rate wells moving to December. The offset is important: Ithaca lifts its expected exit rate to around 145 kboe/d in Q4, meaning more installed capacity on day one of 2026.

• Mix: 58% liquids, 42% gas; 38% operated, 62% non-operated.
• HSE: zero Tier 1 and Tier 2 process safety events and a lower TRIR of 1.62 vs 2.89 in 2024.
• Emissions: operated GHG intensity improved to 17.34 kgCO2e/boe from 20.14 kgCO2e/boe.

Growth engines – Captain, Cygnus, Seagull and J Area

Ithaca is spending where paybacks look attractive. Captain’s 13th well campaign is progressing with the 14th due for sanction in Q4 2025, and a flotel-backed programme is tackling life extension, backlog and optimisations. At Cygnus, the infill campaign is in full swing – the first of four firm wells (C12) is due early December, with the second to spud right after. A fourth well has been added following the acquisition of an extra 46.25% stake.

Seagull’s fourth well (J4) came onstream in Q4 after a technical delay, which trims this year’s contribution but de-risks the asset. In the J Area, extra activity has been sanctioned at Judy East Flank and Joanne, with the JEF well expected mid-December.

West of Shetland strategy – Rosebank, Cambo, Tornado and Tobermory

Momentum continues across the West of Shetland, the core to Ithaca’s long-life growth story.

• Rosebank: updated Environmental Statement submitted, subsea installation scopes delivered on time and budget, drilling scheduled to start in Q1 2026. FPSO refurbishment is advancing with a target sail-away early 2026. Hitting the Q1 2026 sail-away and subsequent hook-up is critical to first oil in 2026/27. The operator does not see a need to materially update total project cost forecasts at this stage, to be revisited post sail-away.
• Cambo: project tenders for FPSO EPCC and SURF have commenced following a technical refresh. An updated Field Development Plan and Environmental Statement are targeted in Q4 2025. Final investment decision and a potential farm-down remain subject to fiscal and regulatory clarity.
• Tornado: progressing towards FID with tendering and Environmental Statement advancement.
• Tobermory: new 50% farm-in announced today, part of a gas-led strategy with potential synergies with Tornado.

Inorganic growth – consolidating core assets at attractive entry points

• JAPEX UK acquisition completed 7 July 2025, taking Seagull to 50% and adding around 4 – 4.5 kboe/d in 2025 pro forma. Completion payment was $136 million.
• Cygnus stake increased by 46.25% to 85% on 1 October 2025, adding circa 12.5 – 13.5 kboe/d pro forma and upping gas exposure. Completion payment was £115 million.

The consolidation theme is clear: bigger positions in assets Ithaca already knows well, with scope for incremental wells and optimisations.

Cash, debt and dividends – firepower intact, payout confirmed

Financing was a highlight. Ithaca issued €450 million of 5.5% senior notes due 2031, with an effective all-in USD interest rate of 6.7%, and upsized its RBL by $300 million. Available liquidity stands at $1.7 billion and leverage is 0.50x, leaving ample capacity for projects and deals.

On shareholder returns, the company paid a first interim dividend of $167 million in September and has accelerated a second interim of $133 million payable on 18 December 2025. That keeps the $500 million full-year dividend on track, reaffirmed today.

Pricing, costs and hedging – resilience through the cycle

• Realised prices YTD: oil $71/bbl before hedging ($73/bbl after); gas 88p/therm before (90p/therm after).
• Unit opex fell to $19.1/boe from $28.9/boe, highlighting the scale benefits of the Eni UK combination.
• Hedges: 39.5 million boe (54% oil) hedged from Q4 2025 into 2027, with average floors of $68/bbl on oil swaps, $62/bbl on oil puts/collars, 98p/therm on gas swaps and 81p/therm on gas puts/collars.

Accounting note: the YTD loss after tax of $119.1 million is driven primarily by a one-off, non-cash deferred tax charge of $327.6 million from the two-year extension of the Energy Profits Levy to 31 March 2030. Profit before tax was $668.1 million.

2025 guidance reaffirmed – what to expect into year end

• Production: 119 – 125 kboe/d, trending to the bottom end.
• Net operating costs: $790 – 840 million.
• Producing asset capex: $630 – 670 million, excluding pre-FID projects and Rosebank.
• Rosebank capex: $230 – 270 million.
• Cash tax: $270 – 300 million, guiding to the bottom end.
• Exit rate uplifted to around 145 kboe/d in Q4 2025.

My take – strengths, risks and what matters for valuation

Positives worth highlighting

• Scale delivers: production is up 119% year on year and opex per barrel down to $19.1/boe, showing the cost advantage of the enlarged portfolio.
• Balance sheet headroom: $1.7 billion of liquidity and 0.50x leverage provide optionality for West of Shetland, infill drilling and selective M&A.
• Operational momentum into 2026: exit rate raised to circa 145 kboe/d with three high-rate wells due in December.
• Cash returns intact: $500 million dividend reaffirmed despite heavy turnarounds and project spend.
• HSE and emissions trend improving, which should help permitting on major developments.

Things to watch

• Execution at Rosebank: hitting the FPSO sail-away window in Q1 2026 is critical to the 2026/27 first oil timetable.
• Short-term production: guidance sits at the low end due to Captain and well timing – December start-ups need to land smoothly.
• Fiscal environment: the Energy Profits Levy extension is already visible in the one-off non-cash tax hit. Ongoing fiscal clarity is also cited as a dependency for Cambo and Tornado FIDs.
• Commodity prices: realised oil prices are lower year on year; hedges provide floors but cap some upside.

Net-net, this is a confident update from a bigger, more efficient business. The combination with Eni UK has reset the cost base and diversified the production mix, while management continues to consolidate core assets and push West of Shetland projects forward. If the year-end wells deliver and Rosebank stays on track, 2026 should start with a higher production ceiling and the firepower to keep investing and paying out.

Useful links and next steps

• Investor webcast and Q&A at 09:00 GMT on 19 November 2025: join here.