Kistos Hits Peak Production at Balder Future, Reaffirms 2025 Guidance

Kistos trading update: Balder Future hits peak and 2025 guidance reaffirmed

Kistos Holdings (LON: KIST) has delivered a punchy operational update ahead of its half-year results. The headline is clear: Balder Future is at peak production, daily group output hit 16,000 boepd on 8 September, and full-year guidance of 8,000-9,000 boepd is reaffirmed.

The company has spent heavily to get here, which shows up in the cash and debt numbers, but the new barrels now online should start doing the heavy lifting in the second half.

Balder Future at peak: why this matters for Kistos

Balder Future, part of the wider Balder Area offshore Norway, has reached peak production. The Jotun FPSO (a floating production, storage and offloading vessel) was brought onstream on 22 June 2025 and all 14 subsea production wells are now online, performing in line with expectations.

Production from Jotun is now over 80,000 boepd, adding to approximately 30,000 boepd from the Balder FPU and Ringhorne. That takes the Balder Area to more than 110,000 boepd gross, where Kistos holds a 10% licence stake.

Management says the Balder Future contribution is adding an additional 8,000 boepd net to Kistos. That helps explain why the group touched 16,000 boepd on 8 September. The company also notes the ramp-up to peak came “well ahead of schedule”, which is rare in offshore developments and a clear operational positive.

Next phases: Balder Phase V and VI add visible growth

Momentum does not stop at Balder Future. Phase V is underway with six new multi-branch subsea wells being drilled. Expected rates and reserves are said to be equivalent to the Balder Future wells. Two of these Phase V wells are due onstream in Q4 2025, with the remainder completing during 2026.

Phase VI is also moving forward after a positive investment decision on 18 June 2025. This consists of a single multi-lateral well tied back to Jotun via a new subsea template and flowline, targeting approximately 15 mmboe gross. Start-up is expected by the end of 2026 and the project is guided to pay back in less than one year. Fast-payback barrels at this scale are exactly what you want tied into existing kit.

Netherlands and West of Shetland: mixed but manageable

Q10-A production impacted, with recovery underway

On the Dutch Q10-A field, first-half production was affected by natural decline and a planned shutdown at the TAQA-operated P15-D platform that overran. Restart was achieved on 16 July 2025, and Kistos flags “flush production” – the short-term higher rates often seen after a restart – to partially offset the downtime.

GLA production steady; Victory start-up to cut costs

In the Greater Laggan Area (GLA) west of Shetland, production fell in line with management expectations. The imminent start-up of the Shell-operated Victory gas field is expected to deliver significant operating cost (OPEX) savings for the GLA partners by pushing more gas through the Shetland Gas Plant (SGP). More throughput typically means lower unit costs.

Importantly, TotalEnergies continues to hold its 40% stake in the GLA following Prax going into administration. Kistos says it remains confident TotalEnergies will operate the assets responsibly and efficiently.

Gas storage: Hole House FID closing in

A Final Investment Decision (FID) on reinstating the Hole House gas storage facility is anticipated late in Q3 2025. If positive, working capacity is expected to increase by a further 63%. That would be strategically useful given price volatility, but we will need to see the decision and terms first.

Guidance, cash and debt: the numbers you need to know

Metric	Disclosure
FY 2025 average production guidance	8,000-9,000 boepd (reaffirmed)
Daily production (8 September 2025)	16,000 boepd
Balder Future contribution	Additional 8,000 boepd (net)
Balder Area production	More than 110,000 boepd (gross); Kistos stake 10%
Jotun FPSO production	Over 80,000 boepd (gross)
Balder Future wells online	14 subsea production wells
Phase V wells	Six underway; two expected onstream in Q4 2025; remaining in 2026
Phase VI reserves target	Approximately 15 mmboe (gross); start-up by end 2026; payback < 1 year
Cash (30 June 2025)	$104 million (including $20 million currently restricted)
Cash (31 December 2024)	$143 million
Net debt at period end	$86 million

My take: a step-change in barrels, with balance sheet to watch

This update is strongly positive on operations. Hitting peak production at Balder Future ahead of schedule and getting all 14 wells online without drama is the standout. The visibility from Phase V and VI gives Kistos a sensible pipeline of near-term barrels tied back to the same infrastructure, which usually keeps costs and execution risk down.

The less rosy bit is the balance sheet trend. Cash dropped to $104 million at 30 June (from $143 million at year-end), reflecting heavy capex on Balder Future, and net debt stood at $86 million. That is not alarming for a producer at this scale, but it raises the importance of delivering the guided volumes and the expected OPEX savings in the GLA to convert barrels into cash promptly.

On production, reaffirming 8,000-9,000 boepd for the year suggests a strong second half is needed, which is exactly what Balder Future is set up to provide. The day-rate spike to 16,000 boepd on 8 September confirms the new capacity is real. Q10-A’s hiccup looks transient thanks to the July restart and flush production.

What could move the Kistos share price next

• Hole House decision: FID on the gas storage reinstatement is due late Q3 2025. If approved, a 63% increase in working capacity could add strategic and seasonal earnings power.
• Phase V progress: Confirmation that two new wells come onstream in Q4 2025 keeps the growth narrative intact.
• GLA cost base: The Victory field start-up and its impact on OPEX at the SGP will be closely watched.
• H1 results detail: Cash flow, capex phasing and updated net debt trajectory will matter given the H1 spend.
• M&A discipline: Management reiterated an appetite for acquisitions, including outside the North Sea, but only on accretive terms. Discipline here will be key.

Jargon buster

• boepd: barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• FPSO/FPU: floating production vessels that process, store and offload hydrocarbons.
• OPEX: operating expenditure – the day-to-day running costs of assets.
• FID: Final Investment Decision – the formal go/no-go on a project.
• Flush production: a short-term boost in output after a well or facility restarts.
• mmboe: millions of barrels of oil equivalent.

Bottom line

Kistos has crossed an important threshold with Balder Future at peak and more wells to come. The company has traded cash for barrels in H1; now the job is to turn that new capacity into cash flow, trim unit costs at the GLA, and keep execution tight on Phases V and VI. On balance, this is a solid, production-led update that backs up the guidance and sets up a busier, cash-generative second half.