LSEG Q3 2025: Strong Growth, Raised Margin Guidance, and £1bn Share Buyback

LSEG Q3 2025: growth across the board, higher margins, and another £1 billion buyback

LSEG has put in another solid quarter. Total income excluding recoveries rose 6.4% on an organic constant currency basis to £2,219 million, with growth in every major line. Management also nudged guidance higher for 2025 EBITDA margins and unveiled a chunky new capital return alongside a strategic reshaping of the Post Trade businesses.

Here is what stood out – and why it matters for shareholders.

Revenue momentum: broad, consistent and still subscription-led

Data remains the engine. Data & Analytics grew 4.9%, with Workflows up 3.0%, Data & Feeds up 6.6%, and Analytics up 7.7%. FTSE Russell accelerated to 9.3% growth, helped by strong asset-based fees, and Risk Intelligence delivered the quarter’s top line at 13.9% as demand for screening and identity verification stayed hot.

Across the subscription-heavy parts of the group, combined growth ran at 6.5%. Period-end ASV (annual subscription value – a forward-looking gauge of contracted run-rate) grew 5.6%. Management called out the drag from the new multi-year UBS contract. Strip that out and underlying ASV growth actually accelerated – and they expect headline ASV to re-accelerate into Q4.

Key Q3 numbers investors should note

Metric	Q3 2025	Change
Total income (excl. recoveries)	£2,219m	+6.4% organic cc
Total income (incl. recoveries)	£2,308m	+6.2% organic cc
Gross profit	£2,016m	+6.5% organic cc
Data & Analytics growth	£982m	+4.9% organic cc
FTSE Russell growth	£241m	+9.3% organic cc
Risk Intelligence growth	£144m	+13.9% organic cc
Markets growth	£850m	+6.3% organic cc
ASV growth	n/a	+5.6% organic cc

cc = constant currency

Margin guidance raised – and more coming from SwapClear

LSEG now expects about 100 bps of constant currency EBITDA margin improvement in FY2025 – the top end of prior guidance. That excludes a further c.100 bps uplift from amended revenue-sharing in SwapClear, which is effective retroactively from the start of 2025. Put simply, the core business is scaling well, and the post trade tweak adds an extra tailwind.

There is also a structural element: 11 global banks are buying 20% of Post Trade Solutions for £170 million, valuing PTS at £850 million. In parallel, LSEG will pay £1.15 billion to acquire an increased share of the revenue surplus in SwapClear (£0.9 billion in 2025 and £0.25 billion in 2026). The agreement extends revenue-share arrangements out to 2045 and is immediately margin-accretive – c.250 bps to Markets and c.100 bps to the Group from 2025, with 2-3% accretion to adjusted EPS this year.

Why it matters: LSEG is locking in a long-duration alignment with its biggest clearing customers while lifting the profit share. It is capital out today for higher, steadier cash flows tomorrow – classic LSEG playbook.

AI distribution flywheel: data where customers work

The “LSEG Everywhere” strategy is visible in a string of integrations. During and around Q3, the group made trusted, auditable data available in Databricks and Snowflake, and partnered with Rogo to plug content into their AI applications. The Microsoft partnership deepened too: LSEG data is being embedded in Microsoft 365 Copilot and agentic tools via Copilot Studio, and a digital market infrastructure built on Microsoft tech went live alongside a new Azure-based routing network spanning 1,600 firms.

Why it matters: for AI to be useful in finance, the data must be reliable, permissioned and traceable. LSEG’s distribution across customers’ preferred tools should support both new sales and price resilience. It is also a moat – 90% of Data & Feeds revenue comes from areas where LSEG has proprietary tech, IP or infrastructure advantages.

Markets division: busy venues, mixed revenue mix

Markets grew 6.3% despite a tough prior year comparator. Tradeweb set new records, with $173tn average daily volume across its platforms. Equities was modest at +2.6%. Fixed Income, Derivatives & Other rose 9.9%, FX was up 3.1%, OTC Derivatives climbed 9.2%, and Securities & Reporting returned to positive growth at 1.8%.

Two moving parts are worth watching. First, Non-Cash Collateral rose 6.0% as customers favoured non-cash instruments. Second, Net Treasury Income fell 7.1% due to lower overall collateral balances and the shift towards non-cash. The activity picture is strong, but the mix can tug revenues around quarter to quarter.

Capital returns: buybacks dialled up and leverage in check

LSEG has been busy in the market. Having returned nearly £1 billion through buybacks in the last three months, the company is committing to a further £1 billion by February 2026, with around half expected in 2025. As at 22 October 2025, £938 million of the July buyback had been completed, with 10.5 million shares repurchased at an average £88.95.

Management still expects end-2025 leverage of about 1.9x net debt to EBITDA – below the middle of the 1.5-2.5x target range – even after the PTS and SwapClear cash flows and the stepped-up buybacks. The dividend outlay year-to-date is £0.72 billion.

Full-year guidance check-in

• Organic constant currency growth in total income (excl. recoveries) of 6.5-7.5%.
• Capex intensity around 10% of total income (excl. recoveries).
• Equity free cash flow of at least £2.4 billion (FX assumptions: £1 = $1.28 and €1.18).
• Underlying effective tax rate of 24-25%.
• EBITDA margin up c.100 bps before SwapClear changes, plus c.100 bps from the new revenue share arrangement across 2025.

What looks positive – and what to keep an eye on

Reasons to be cheerful

• Growth is broad-based, with standout momentum in Risk Intelligence (+13.9%) and FTSE Russell (+9.3%).
• Margin guidance raised, with a second uplift from the SwapClear deal – near-term EPS accretion of 2-3%.
• AI distribution deals deepen LSEG’s moat by embedding trusted data into the tools customers already use.
• Shareholder returns are substantial: £2.5 billion of buybacks expected over March 2025 to February 2026.

Watch outs

• ASV growth at 5.6% is solid but reflects the UBS contract drag – the promised Q4 re-acceleration will be a marker for FY2026 momentum.
• Net Treasury Income fell 7.1% as balances and mix shifted; this revenue line can remain choppy.
• The SwapClear consideration (£1.15 billion) is material; delivery of the projected margin and AEPS benefits will be scrutinised.

Extra datapoints for the keen

• FTSE Russell index-linked ETF AUM: $1,732 billion at period end (average $1,662 billion).
• FX average daily volume: $530 billion.
• SwapClear IRS notional cleared: $502 trillion; client trades 1,334k. ForexClear notional cleared: $12,573 billion.
• RepoClear nominal value: €83.3 trillion. UK cash equities ADV: £4.3 billion.

Event links and where to learn more

• Q3 webcast and call registration: webcast page and telephone registration.
• LSEG Innovation Forum on 10 November 2025 in London – enquiries via [email protected].
• Further company materials: www.lseg.com.

Bottom line

This is a confident update. Revenues are growing steadily, margins are heading higher, and the capital return drumbeat is loud. The PTS and SwapClear moves deepen customer alignment while lifting profitability – a neat mix of strategy and shareholder value. Keep an eye on ASV’s Q4 inflection and the trajectory of Net Treasury Income, but overall LSEG remains on the front foot.