Festive trading lifts like-for-like sales 4.0% with record Christmas Day
Marston’s has kicked off FY2026 with a solid festive showing. Like-for-like sales rose 4.0% over the holiday period, with the five key festive dates up 5.6%. The CEO flagged a new record for Christmas Day, which speaks to the strength of community pubs when it matters most.
For clarity, like-for-like sales compare pubs that traded in both the current and prior periods on a daily basis. The festive period referenced runs from 21 December 2025 to 3 January 2026.
17-week trading in line with last year and ahead of the market
Across the 17 weeks to 24 January 2026, trading has been resilient, tracking in line with the prior year and continuing to outpace the total market. That is a useful marker, given mixed sector read-throughs this winter.
Outperforming the wider market while holding flat year-on-year typically signals market share gains. It also gives the team a decent base as we head into spring, before the summer sports boost lands.
Format roll-out gathers pace – 23 launches in Q1, 50+ planned for FY2026
Marston’s pub format programme is accelerating. The Group completed 23 new format launches in Q1 and plans to do more than 50 in FY2026. Management says these sites are outperforming, which is what you want to hear when capital is being deployed into refreshes and re-sets.
The strategy here is practical: elevate the guest experience, sharpen local relevance, and unlock better sales density. Execution quality matters, but early read-across is positive.
Margins nudging up on operating model and cost control
The Group cites margin improvement this year, underpinned by its operating model, disciplined cost control and efficiency initiatives. No numbers are disclosed, but the direction of travel is encouraging given ongoing cost pressures in energy, labour and food.
In a low-growth environment, every basis point of margin counts. The combination of improved formats and tighter operations should support underlying profitability if sustained.
Demand-driving calendar – Matilda, darts and the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Marston’s has lined up a lively programme to keep tills ringing. Returning events include Luke Humphries’ Cool Hand Cup and Trivial Pursuit: Win a Wedge, alongside a new partnership centred on Matilda, one of Roald Dahl’s most loved characters. These are smart, family and community-friendly hooks for footfall.
The big ticket is the 2026 FIFA World Cup, flagged as a significant summer trading opportunity. Well-run community pubs typically capture strong matchday trade, especially with pre-booked tables and food-led packages.
Guidance intact – on track to meet FY2026 market expectations
The Board remains confident in delivering full-year consensus expectations. Company-compiled forecasts for FY2026 point to underlying profit before tax of £78.7 million, with a range from £76.1 million to £83.0 million.
Reaffirming guidance this early in the year is helpful. Management also reiterated they are on track against targets set out at the October 2024 Capital Markets Day, including shareholder returns, though specific metrics are not repeated in this update.
Key numbers and dates from the trading update
| Period covered | 17 weeks to 24 January 2026 |
| Festive like-for-like sales | +4.0% |
| Five key festive dates | +5.6% |
| Q1 new format launches | 23 sites |
| FY2026 format roll-out target | More than 50 sites |
| FY2026 consensus underlying PBT | £78.7 million |
| Consensus range (underlying PBT) | £76.1 million to £83.0 million |
| Festive period dates | 21 December 2025 to 3 January 2026 |
| AGM timing | 10:00am on 28 January 2026 |
What is not disclosed in this update
- Total revenue, EBITDA or operating margin figures – not disclosed.
- Cash flow, net debt or interest costs – not disclosed.
- Capex or returns on investment from the new formats – not disclosed.
- Specific Capital Markets Day targets by metric – not repeated here.
- Dividend policy or payments – not disclosed.
Josh’s view: solid momentum, sensible execution, clear summer tailwind
This is a tidy trading update. Festive like-for-like growth of 4.0% and a record Christmas Day underpin the narrative that community pubs are still drawing spend when the occasion is right. Tracking in line for the 17 weeks while outpacing the total market suggests share gains, which matter more than the headline growth rate at this stage.
The acceleration in format roll-outs to 23 sites in Q1, with more than 50 planned this year, is a key lever. Management says these sites are outperforming, which supports further deployment. Paired with margin improvements from tighter operations and cost discipline, this reads as steady, execution-led progress.
The events calendar is well judged. The Matilda partnership broadens family appeal, while darts and quiz-led activity keep midweek traffic ticking over. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is a genuine upside catalyst for summer trading if the company leans in on pre-bookings and food-led bundles.
On the cautious side, we do not have quantified margin gains, cash or debt detail in this note. Cost inflation has not disappeared, and rapid format roll-outs carry execution risk. That said, the Board’s confidence in delivering FY2026 consensus underlying PBT of £78.7 million, within a £76.1 million to £83.0 million range, provides an anchor for estimates.
Net-net, this looks like a well-managed start to the year with operational self-help and a visible sports tailwind to come. If they keep outperforming the market and converting format investments into measurable margin and cash flow, the equity case tightens. Next checkpoints: spring trading, pace and returns on format conversions, and any clarity on debt and shareholder returns at the half-year.
