PageGroup Q3 2025: Europe Struggles as US and Asia Drive Growth

PageGroup Q3 2025 trading update: solid US and Asia offset a weak Europe

PageGroup’s Q3 shows a familiar split-screen: Europe remains soft, the US is steadily improving, and Asia is quietly rebuilding. Group gross profit came in at £187.8 million, down 6.7% in constant currency versus 2024, with productivity per fee earner up 1% year-on-year. Net cash improved to around £38 million, and the Board still expects 2025 operating profit to be broadly in line with market consensus of £21.5 million.

For context: “gross profit” here is the fees earned after paying temp workers and direct costs; “fee earner” means front-line recruiters; “constant currency” strips out FX swings to show underlying trends.

What stood out in the quarter

• Group gross profit £187.8 million, -6.7% constant currency; -6.8% reported.
• US delivered its fourth consecutive quarter of growth; Asia grew for a second quarter.
• Europe and the UK stayed challenging, with slower decision-making and lower offer-to-placement conversion.
• Fee earner headcount reduced by 120 (-2.3%) to 5,043; gross profit per fee earner up 1% year-on-year.
• Net cash around £38 million (Q2 2025: c. £11 million; Q3 2024: c. £93 million).
• Interim dividend of £16.7 million paid on 10 October 2025.
• Cost reduction programme on track for c. £15 million annualised savings from 2026; one-off costs c. £15 million (c. £13 million in H1), with c. £5 million savings in H2 2025.
• FY25 operating profit expected broadly in line with consensus of £21.5 million.

Regional performance: Europe drags, US and Asia improve

EMEA: low confidence keeps the brakes on

EMEA, 52% of Group, saw gross profit decline 10.2% in constant currency to £97.8 million. Germany was down 11% (better than -21% in Q2), with Technology Interim more resilient (-5%) but Michael Page down 18%. France fell 16%, with temporary down 4% outperforming permanent, down 26% – a classic uncertainty pattern. Spain grew 3%, but Netherlands (-14%), Italy (-6%) and Belgium (-10%) remained tough. Fee earner headcount in the region fell by 79 in the quarter.

Americas: US momentum continues, LatAm mixed

The Americas delivered £36.4 million of gross profit, up 3.5% excluding Argentina. North America rose 10%, led by the US at +10%, with Manufacturing and Construction performing well. Latin America declined 4% ex-Argentina, with Mexico -12% on tariff uncertainty and Brazil flat (permanent weak, temporary strong). Regional fee earner headcount decreased by 16, mainly Brazil, partly offset by additions in the US.

Asia Pacific: two in a row for Asia; Australia still tough

Asia Pacific gross profit was £31.0 million, down 1.2% in constant currency. Asia itself grew 1% for a second consecutive quarter. South East Asia was +5%, India +11% with nearly 250 fee earners, and Hong Kong +8% thanks to strong Page Executive. Greater China was -7% overall, with Mainland China -20%. Japan was -2%. Australia fell 12%, with New South Wales particularly challenging. Fee earner headcount in the region decreased by 9 in Q3; total headcount was flat at 1,471.

UK: another cautious quarter

The UK, 12% of Group, posted gross profit of £22.6 million, down 14.3% year-on-year, similar to Q2. Clients deferred hiring and candidates stayed cautious. Permanent fell 12% while temporary dropped 19%, amplified by the closure of UK Page Personnel earlier this year, which had a heavier temp mix. Fee earner headcount reduced by 16 to 876.

Perm vs temp: mix unchanged, declines broadly similar

Permanent recruitment gross profit was £133.1 million, down 6.4% constant currency. Temporary was £54.7 million, down 7.5% constant currency. The overall mix is unchanged at 71:29 permanent to temporary. In a typical slowdown, temp often proves more resilient, but Europe’s softer activity and a tougher comparator in temp meant both sides declined at similar rates this quarter.

Costs, headcount and cash: discipline now, leverage later

PageGroup is aligning capacity to activity levels, cutting 120 fee earners and 11 non-operations roles in Q3. Total fee earners sit at 5,043, with Group headcount at 6,903. The cost optimisation plan is progressing and is expected to deliver around £15 million annualised savings from 2026, after one-off restructuring costs of roughly £15 million in 2025 (c. £13 million booked in H1) and c. £5 million of savings in H2 2025.

Net cash improved to around £38 million, up from around £11 million at Q2, despite paying the £16.7 million interim dividend on 10 October. The balance sheet gives management options if trading remains uneven.

Why this matters for investors

• Geographic balance is working. The US and Asia together are a quarter of the Group and growing; that cushion helps while Europe and the UK reset.
• Execution focus is clear. Reallocating headcount into recovering markets, protecting productivity, and pushing through cost savings should support margins when volumes return.
• Conversion is the swing factor. The biggest issue remains offers not converting to placements. Any uptick here would unlock revenue without extra headcount.
• Outlook steady, not spectacular. Management aims to land 2025 operating profit broadly in line with consensus at £21.5 million, signalling control in a choppy market.

My take: cautious near term, optionality building

This is a pragmatic update. Europe is still the problem child, but Germany’s rate of decline improved, France’s temp resilience is textbook, and Spain is growing. The US performance looks durable, and Asia has several green shoots (India, South East Asia, Hong Kong). Australia and Mainland China remain headwinds.

Cost actions are timely and should provide operating leverage into any recovery from 2026, while the improved net cash position is a comfort. The near-term risk is that client confidence in Europe takes longer to recover, keeping conversion rates muted. On balance, I see limited downside to 2025 expectations and decent upside into 2026 if conversion improves and the savings drop through.

Key numbers at a glance

Group gross profit (Q3 2025)	£187.8m (-6.7% constant currency)
EMEA (52% of Group)	£97.8m (-10.2% constant currency)
Americas (19% of Group)	£36.4m (+3.5% constant currency, excl. Argentina)
Asia Pacific (17% of Group)	£31.0m (-1.2% constant currency)
UK (12% of Group)	£22.6m (-14.3%)
Permanent vs Temporary	£133.1m (-6.4% cc) vs £54.7m (-7.5% cc) – mix 71:29
Fee earners / Total headcount	5,043 / 6,903
Net cash (30 Sep 2025)	c. £38m (Q2 2025: c. £11m; Q3 2024: c. £93m)
Interim dividend	£16.7m paid 10 October 2025
FY25 operating profit outlook	Broadly in line with consensus of £21.5m
Cost programme	c. £15m one-off in 2025; c. £15m annualised savings from 2026

What to watch next

• Offer-to-placement conversion – early signs of improvement would be meaningful for revenue.
• US momentum – another quarter of growth would strengthen the Group mix further.
• Asia breadth – continued gains in South East Asia and India offsetting China/Australia softness.
• European stabilisation – particularly Germany and France, where large declines still bite.
• Cash and costs – confirmation of savings trajectory and sustained net cash improvement.

Dates and resources

PageGroup will issue its Q4 Trading Update on 13 January 2026.

• Live presentation (8:30am, 15 October 2025): view here
• Presentation and recording (to be posted during the morning of 15 October 2025): company presentations page