Prosus Forecasts Up to 37% Earnings Per Share Growth in H1 FY26

Prosus flags punchy earnings uplift for H1 FY26: what the trading statement really says

Prosus has issued a trading statement ahead of its interim results to 30 September 2025, signalling a strong first half. Thanks to Johannesburg Stock Exchange rules, a statement is required when results will differ by at least 20% from the prior period. Because Naspers consolidates Prosus, and Naspers is obliged to issue, Prosus is mirroring the disclosure so everyone gets the same information at the same time.

The headline: earnings per share are set to rise sharply, underpinned by stronger Ecommerce profitability and a solid contribution from equity-accounted investments, particularly Tencent. The numbers below refer to N ordinary shares and to continuing operations unless stated.

Key EPS guidance: continuing vs total operations

Prosus has guided ranges for earnings per share (EPS), headline EPS, and core headline EPS. A quick refresher:

• EPS includes all items, including gains on disposals.
• Headline EPS strips out major remeasurements like gains on disposals and impairments.
• Core headline EPS goes a step further, removing additional non-operating items such as certain share-based payment effects, fair value and currency translation swings, and acquisition-related one-offs.

Continuing operations guidance

Metric	30 Sept 2024 (US cents)	30 Sept 2025 expected increase (US cents)	Expected increase (%)
Earnings per ordinary share N	191	54-71	28.1%-37.0%
Headline earnings per ordinary share N	107	7-17	6.5%-15.9%
Core headline earnings per ordinary share N	144	29-41	20.1%-28.5%

Total operations guidance

Metric	30 Sept 2024 (US cents)	30 Sept 2025 expected increase (US cents)	Expected increase (%)
Earnings per ordinary share N	187	58-75	30.8%-39.9%
Headline earnings per ordinary share N	106	8-18	7.5%-17.0%
Core headline earnings per ordinary share N	143	30-42	21.0%-29.4%

Note: per share data are calculated on the net number of N ordinary shares in issue. The A and B ordinary classes participate at different fixed ratios.

What is driving the upgrades

Management points to strong growth in revenue and profitability across consolidated Ecommerce businesses and equity-accounted investments, with Tencent called out explicitly. Put simply, the engines are firing in both controlled and associate portfolios.

There is a technical nuance: core headline EPS is lifted further because it excludes unrealised foreign currency translation losses, while headline EPS includes them. That is why core headline EPS growth outpaces headline EPS growth.

EPS vs headline: the Tencent share sale effect

EPS for continuing operations benefits from the gain on the sale of Tencent shares related to the ongoing share repurchase programme. That gain boosts EPS but is excluded from headline and core headline EPS. So, the 28.1%-37.0% EPS uplift looks punchier than the 6.5%-15.9% headline EPS increase because EPS is capturing a non-operational disposal gain.

This split matters for valuation. If you focus on underlying performance, headline and core headline EPS are cleaner gauges. If you care about total returns and capital allocation, EPS tells you that disposals and buybacks are adding incremental value this half.

Why the measures differ – quick explainer

Headline earnings remove items like impairments and gains or losses on acquisitions and disposals. Core headline earnings then strips out further non-operating noise: certain equity-settled and cash-settled share-based payment effects tied to shareholder transactions, fair value adjustments and unrealised currency translation differences, one-off acquisition and disposal costs, first-time deferred tax recognition, and amortisation of acquired intangibles. These adjustments apply to both consolidated businesses and the share of earnings from associates and joint ventures, where available.

In plain English, core headline earnings aims to show the recurring operational picture. Given FX volatility and the size of investment stakes, that can be helpful for comparing run-rate profitability period to period.

Operational backdrop: scale and discipline

Prosus highlights that its ecosystem model now reaches approximately 2 billion consumers across nearly 100 companies. Management emphasises “The Prosus Way” – a cultural push on discipline, innovation and people – as the basis for sustaining profitable growth over the long term. That narrative aligns with the improved profitability in Ecommerce and the contribution from associates.

Positives, pressure points, and what it means for investors

What looks positive

• Double-digit EPS growth across all measures, with core headline EPS up 20.1%-28.5% for continuing operations, points to genuine operating momentum.
• The contribution from Ecommerce and equity-accounted investments suggests a broad-based improvement rather than a single engine doing all the work.
• Capital allocation is adding value: the Tencent share disposal gains feed through to EPS alongside the buyback programme.

Where to stay cautious

• Headline EPS growth of 6.5%-15.9% is notably lower than EPS growth, reminding us that non-operational gains are flattering the all-in number.
• FX translation losses are still a headwind at the headline level, only neutralised in core headline EPS. Currency remains a swing factor.
• Reliance on Tencent remains material as it is singled out as a key driver. Associate earnings can be volatile and outside direct operational control.

What to watch in the 24 November 2025 interims

Full details land on Monday, 24 November 2025. Here is what I will be scanning for:

• Ecommerce revenue growth and margin trajectory by segment – not disclosed in the trading statement.
• Cash generation and investment spend – not disclosed.
• Quantification of FX impacts and how they reconcile from headline to core headline earnings.
• Update on the share repurchase programme and any further Tencent stake changes.
• Associate performance beyond Tencent to test the breadth of improvement.
• Continuing vs total operations bridge to understand any disposals or classification changes.

A note on process and disclosure

The financial information in this trading statement has not been audited or reviewed by the Group’s auditors. Trading statements are guidance ranges, not the final print. Expect fuller segmental detail and reconciliations with the interim financials.

My take: solid operational progress, with the usual Tencent and FX caveats

This reads as a good news update. The core engine – Ecommerce plus associates – is delivering, evidenced by core headline EPS growth of 20.1%-28.5% for continuing operations. EPS is given an extra lift by the Tencent disposal gains tied to buybacks, which is accretive but not repeatable in the same way as operating improvements.

The softer headline EPS growth and mention of FX translation losses are reminders that currency can dilute optical performance, and that not all of the uplift is operational. Prosus’s scale – around 2 billion consumers across nearly 100 companies – provides diversification, but Tencent remains a key driver and a source of volatility.

Net-net, this is a constructive read-through into the interims. If the detail on 24 November shows sustained Ecommerce margin improvement and healthy associate contributions, the trajectory into the second half looks encouraging. As ever, keep an eye on FX, the pace and price of any further Tencent transactions, and the cash flow to back the earnings story.