Ramsdens lifts FY26 profit outlook to £24m-£28m on surging gold tailwind
Ramsdens Holdings has upgraded its full-year profit guidance again, thanks to a powerful gold price tailwind and solid trading across its core divisions. In today’s RNS (Regulatory News Service) trading update for FY26 (year to 30 September 2026), the Board now expects profit before tax (PBT) of at least £24 million, with potential to reach up to £28 million if current favourable conditions continue. For context, the prior consensus was £21.1 million.
That is a meaningful step-up and underlines how Ramsdens’ diversified model – spanning precious metals buying, pawnbroking, jewellery retail, and foreign currency – is firing on multiple cylinders right now.
Gold price power: 50% higher year on year, volumes up too
The headline driver is the gold price. The average gold price year to date is approximately 50% higher than last year, and that strength is not just boosting margins – it is also pulling in more metal. The weight of gold purchased is also approximately 50% higher year on year.
The Board believes the gold price could remain elevated through the second half of FY26 (HY2). If that holds, profits in the purchase of precious metals division are expected to be ahead of previous HY2 expectations, driven by both high prices and increased purchase volumes.
Why it matters: Ramsdens earns money from buying gold from customers and selling it on. Higher prices tend to stimulate customer selling while also lifting gross profit per gram – a potent combination we are seeing play out.
Jewellery retail and pawnbroking: momentum where it counts
It is not all about gold. Jewellery retail revenue is approximately 25% ahead year on year, which suggests strong demand and effective merchandising. That’s good for mix and margins, and it supports the brand’s retail credibility.
Pawnbroking – short-term, secured lending against items like jewellery and watches – is also stepping up. Lending hit record levels in February 2026 and momentum has continued into March. The loan book now stands at approximately £13.5 million, up 18% from £11.4 million at the September year end.
Why it matters: A larger, well-managed loan book can be a dependable income stream via interest and fees, while also feeding future retail stock when pledges are not redeemed. The update does not disclose redemption rates, arrears, or impairment trends, so we will have to wait for the interim results for that colour.
Foreign currency: steady volumes, softer commissions
Foreign currency trading has been steady on volumes – the total currency exchanged in the first five months of FY26 was in line with the comparable period in FY25. However, commissions are approximately 5% lower year on year due to the ongoing shift towards online and currency card sales, which are lower margin.
The Group flags that the situation in the Middle East may affect international travel, but notes its primary foreign currency activity is selling Euros to UK holidaymakers, which currently appears stable.
Store expansion: three openings trading well, more to come
New stores in Wakefield, Hull and Sheerness have traded well since opening. Ramsdens remains on track to open between eight and 12 new stores in FY26. Three sites are currently in shop fit, with a further three expected to enter shop fit in the coming weeks.
Why it matters: Sensible expansion during a period of strong trading can compound growth. The execution risk is real, but early trading feedback is positive.
Key FY26 numbers at a glance
| Metric | Update |
|---|---|
| FY26 profit before tax (guidance) | At least £24m; potentially up to £28m |
| Previous PBT consensus | £21.1m |
| Average gold price (year to date) | Approximately 50% higher year on year |
| Weight of gold purchased | Approximately 50% higher year on year |
| Jewellery retail revenue | Approximately 25% ahead year on year |
| Pawnbroking loan book | Approximately £13.5m (up 18% vs £11.4m at September 2025) |
| Foreign currency – total exchanged | In line year on year (first five months) |
| Foreign currency – commissions | Approximately 5% lower year on year |
| Store estate | 172 stores in the UK (including one franchised) |
| New store openings plan | On track for 8-12 new stores in FY26; 3 in shop fit now, 3 more shortly |
| Interim results timing | Early June 2026 (six months to 31 March 2026) |
My take: a high-quality upgrade with breadth beneath the gold surge
This is not a one-trick pony update. Yes, the gold price is doing a lot of heavy lifting, but Ramsdens is also growing jewellery sales double digits and scaling its pawnbroking loan book to record levels. That breadth gives the upgrade more durability.
The revised PBT range of £24m-£28m is a clear signal of confidence. The top end depends on external factors – chiefly the gold price – but the base of “at least” £24m already represents a strong outturn versus prior expectations.
Positives I’m watching
- Gold engine firing on both cylinders: higher prices and higher purchase volumes.
- Jewellery retail up approximately 25% year on year – evidence of demand and good execution.
- Pawnbroking growth: loan book up 18% since year end, with record monthly lending in February.
- Disciplined expansion: three recent openings performing well; pipeline active.
Balancing factors and risks
- Gold price sensitivity: the upper end of guidance relies on sustained elevated prices through HY2.
- FX commission pressure: channel shift to lower-margin online and cards is trimming take rates.
- Travel uncertainty: potential disruption from the Middle East situation, albeit Euro holiday demand appears stable.
- Data not disclosed: no detail today on pawnbroking arrears, redemption rates, or retail margins.
What this means for investors right now
In simple terms, earnings expectations are moving up – and fast. If management can hold the trading momentum and the gold market stays supportive, there is room to outperform the old consensus by a wide margin. Even if gold cools a touch, the diversified engine looks healthy enough to support the upgraded base case.
For valuation-watchers, upgrades like this often catalyse share price moves, particularly when combined with store growth and visible near-term catalysts.
What to watch next: interim results in early June
The next key milestone is the interim results in early June 2026. I will be looking for:
- Segmental profit splits to gauge how much of the upgrade is gold versus structural growth.
- Pawnbroking quality metrics (redemptions, arrears/impairments) – not disclosed today.
- Jewellery gross margin progression alongside the 25% revenue uplift.
- Foreign currency margin trends and any mitigation on mix/commission rates.
- Update on store pipeline economics and payback.
Bottom line: this is another confident trading update from Ramsdens. The gold price is the wind at their back, but the sails across jewellery and pawnbroking are catching it nicely too. If momentum holds into HY2, the top end of that £24m-£28m PBT range is very much in play.
