Seeing Machines FY2025: Revenue Beat, Cars Equipped Up 69%, and a Clearer Path to Profitability
Seeing Machines has delivered a punchy FY2025 trading update. Reported revenue is expected to land between US$62m and US$63m, ahead of market expectations of US$58m, while cars on the road with its Driver and Occupant Monitoring tech jumped 69% to 3,730,201. The big picture: automotive royalties are ramping, the Guardian fleet product is accelerating, and cost cuts are biting – all aimed at cashflow break-even by year-end.
It’s not all one-way traffic. Revenue is still lower than FY2024 (US$67.6m), and the business remains loss-making. But the operational direction of travel looks meaningfully better into FY2026, with regulation tailwinds and minimum volume guarantees offering visibility.
Headline Numbers Retail Investors Should Know
| Metric | FY2025 (unaudited) | Comparator/Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Reported revenue | US$62m – US$63m | Beat vs consensus US$58m; FY2024 was US$67.6m |
| Automotive minimum guarantee recognised | US$10.2m | Royalty licence revenue recognised at start of production (Q4 FY2025) |
| Annualised Recurring Revenue (ARR) | US$13.4m | FY2024: US$13.2m (ex-Caterpillar) |
| Cash | US$23.1m | 30 June 2025; FY2024: US$23.5m |
| Adjusted EBITDA loss | US$(29m) – US$(30m) | H1: US$(17.7m); H2: US$(12.5m) |
| Monthly adjusted EBITDA loss (H2) | US$2.1m per month | Improved from US$3.0m per month; further improvement anticipated in H1 FY2026 |
| Automotive units produced | Over 1.5 million | Up 35% vs FY2024: 1.125 million |
| Cars on road with DMS/OMS | 3,730,201 | Up 69% year-on-year |
| Guardian Gen 3 hardware sales | Q4: 2,536 units; FY2025: 5,466 units | Q4 up 120% vs Q3 (1,151 units) |
| Annualised operating cost reduction | ~US$12m | Part of strategic reorganisation |
| Mitsubishi Electric investment | £26.2m (US$32.8m) | Plus referral agreements in Americas and Europe |
| Remaining minimum guarantee value (future programmes) | US$43.0m | Production expected to commence during FY2026 |
Automotive Royalties Ramping Ahead of EU GSR 2026
Automotive production volumes rose 35% to over 1.5 million units, a key driver of higher-margin royalty revenue. This matters because the EU’s General Safety Regulation (GSR) mandates camera-based Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) in all new vehicles from July 2026, and Seeing Machines is well-placed as a supplier of DMS/OMS (Driver and Occupant Monitoring System) technology.
Importantly, the company recognised US$10.2m of automotive royalty licence revenue tied to a minimum volume guarantee for a programme that started production in Q4 FY2025. Quarter-on-quarter production royalty volumes continued to increase into H2, and management expects acceleration as the deadline approaches. Cars on the road grew to 3,730,201 – up 69% in 12 months – supporting long-term royalty streams.
Understanding Minimum Volume Guarantees and Adjusted EBITDA
Minimum volume guarantees can front-load revenue: the guaranteed value is recognised as revenue when the programme begins production, with any volumes above the guarantee recognised as produced. However, adjusted EBITDA deliberately excludes that upfront revenue recognition to better reflect ongoing operational performance, while still including the cash effects of the guaranteed payment and excess volumes.
This approach will apply to other guaranteed programmes, with additional production commencing during FY2026 and a remaining minimum value of US$43.0m. In plain English: reported revenue gets a lift when programmes start, but the EBITDA lens strips out that accounting effect to show the true trajectory of the core business.
Guardian Gen 3: Fleet Momentum Building
Guardian Generation 3 is now in full production and finding traction. Q4 hardware sales jumped 120% quarter-on-quarter to 2,536 units, taking FY2025 to 5,466 units. Referral agreements with Mitsubishi Electric Automotive America and Mitsubishi Electric Europe are helping build a steady pipeline across the Americas and Europe.
There’s also validation from adjacent markets: a US$1.2m deal with a leading North American self-driving car company for Guardian Back-up Driver Monitoring System, and homologation approvals with two UK bus manufacturers. The message is clear – Guardian is broadening its footprint beyond core trucking fleets.
Costs, Cash, and the March to Break-even
Seeing Machines has tightened the belt, removing around US$12m in annualised operating costs and updating leadership roles with a new CTO and a Chief Safety Officer. The adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to US$(12.5m) in H2 from US$(17.7m) in H1, with the average monthly loss improving from US$3.0m to US$2.1m. Management anticipates further improvement in H1 FY2026 and is targeting a cashflow break-even run rate by the end of calendar 2025.
Cash stood at US$23.1m at 30 June 2025, broadly stable year-on-year (US$23.5m). The Mitsubishi Electric Mobility Corporation investment of £26.2m (US$32.8m) and commercial referral agreements add both capital and channel muscle.
ARR, Caterpillar, and What’s Included
Annualised Recurring Revenue was US$13.4m versus US$13.2m in FY2024 on a comparable basis, excluding Caterpillar royalties. Caterpillar is no longer included due to a renewed agreement signed in FY2024. The ARR uplift is modest, so the bigger growth engine remains automotive production royalties and Guardian hardware deployments.
Outlook: Regulation Tailwinds and Programme Visibility
Current trading is in line with expectations. The quarter-on-quarter increase in automotive production royalties continued into H2, and management expects momentum to accelerate into the July 2026 EU GSR mandate. The referral agreements with Mitsubishi are progressing, and discussions suggest the tech could reach into other Mitsubishi Group verticals like rail, home monitoring systems, building management systems and factory automation.
Audited results are expected before the end of September 2025. A key near-term milestone remains demonstrating the glidepath to break-even through further monthly EBITDA improvement.
Why This Update Matters for Investors
- Beat on revenue: US$62m – US$63m versus US$58m consensus is a clear positive, though revenue is still below FY2024.
- Royalty flywheel: 35% growth in automotive production and 69% growth in equipped cars point to a scaling, higher-margin royalty base ahead of EU GSR 2026.
- Accounting clarity: US$10.2m recognised from minimum guarantees boosts revenue now, while adjusted EBITDA strips that effect out – useful to assess underlying progress.
- Operational progress: Guardian Gen 3 is accelerating, with Q4 hardware sales up 120% and new wins in autonomy and buses.
- Cost discipline: US$12m annualised savings and improving monthly EBITDA suggest a credible route to cashflow break-even by year-end.
Josh’s Take: Constructively Positive, With Two Watch-outs
This is a solid update. The combination of a revenue beat, accelerating automotive royalties, and real momentum in Guardian gives the story better balance than a year ago. The Mitsubishi partnership is more than cash – it’s a distribution lever that appears to be working.
Watch-outs: reported revenue is still down year-on-year, and ARR growth is steady rather than spectacular. Execution needs to stay tight to hit the cashflow break-even run rate, and investors should track the cadence of new programme starts tied to those minimum guarantees (US$43.0m remaining) into FY2026.
Net-net, the direction is right. If production volumes keep stepping up into the EU GSR deadline and Guardian’s pipeline converts, the earnings mix should shift towards higher-margin royalties and a much healthier P&L.
