NAV up, share price down: SSIT’s discount widens despite operational wins
Seraphim Space Investment Trust’s first quarter update (to 30 September 2025) shows a steady net asset value alongside a sharp fall in the share price. The result is a much wider discount – a classic disconnect between private portfolio progress and public market sentiment.
Quick definitions: NAV is the total value of the trust’s assets minus liabilities. The discount is how far the share price sits below NAV – the larger the negative number, the cheaper the shares are versus the underlying portfolio.
| Metric | 30 Sep 2025 | 30 Jun 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAV | £283.6m | £281.1m | 0.9% |
| NAV per share | 119.55p | 118.52p | 0.9% |
| Portfolio valuation | £264.7m | £259.8m | 1.9% |
| Fair value vs cost | 133.4% | 131.9% | +150 bp |
| Liquid resources (cash) | £19.4m | £21.5m | -9.7% |
| Market capitalisation | £167.9m | £203.0m | -17.3% |
| Share price | 70.8p | 85.6p | -17.3% |
| Discount to NAV | -40.8% | -27.8% | -1,300 bp |
| Ongoing charges | 1.51% | 1.77% | -26 bp |
| Shares in issue | 237.2m | 237.2m | 0.0% |
What moved the NAV: FX tailwind and HawkEye 360 strength
The portfolio valuation increased by £4.9m to £264.7m. That was driven by a £3.8m foreign exchange gain and £1.5m of follow-on investments, more than offsetting a small £0.4m unrealised fair value decrease. In short, currency helped, but there were real company-level wins too.
Standouts in the fair value table:
- HawkEye 360 up £9.0m to £29.6m (10.4% of NAV) – backed by strong trading and “corporate activity currently underway”.
- ICEYE down £6.6m to £98.5m (34.7% of NAV) – a recalibration to reflect terms of ongoing corporate activity.
- D-Orbit edged up £0.6m to £34.2m (12.1% of NAV); ALL.SPACE rose £0.6m to £29.8m (10.5% of NAV).
The Manager notes that both ICEYE and HawkEye 360 are expected to revert to a comparable-multiples valuation method within six months. Translation: once current corporate processes conclude, pricing may again key off market comparables rather than specific transaction terms.
Follow-on investing continues, with modest cash draw
SSIT deployed £1.5m into three existing holdings:
- ALL.SPACE – £1.1m (Downlink, UK)
- QuadSAT – £0.3m (Downlink, EU)
- Taranis – £0.1m (Analyse, US)
Cash ended the quarter at £19.4m (down from £21.5m) with a further £8.7m potential liquidity via listed holdings at 30 September 2025. Post period, SSIT fully exited Arqit and Spire Global for proceeds of £3.3m and £2.9m respectively. The RNS does not state the quarter-end cash impact, but these disposals clearly enhance liquidity after the balance date.
Operational progress: big contracts and product milestones
There is a lot going on inside the portfolio, particularly across defence and earth observation:
- ICEYE (34.7% of NAV) signed a $168m contract with the Finnish Defence Forces for Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites and systems. SAR provides all-weather, day-night imaging. ICEYE also rolled out fourth-generation satellites and a deployable 20-foot ISR cell enabling on-the-ground tasking, downlink and AI analytics.
- HawkEye 360 launched its 12th satellite cluster, strengthening its lead in radio-frequency signals intelligence for global defence customers, and integrated with Lockheed Martin systems during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025.
- ALL.SPACE partnered with Aalyria to enable autonomous multi-orbit network orchestration.
- Skylo launched a voice gateway for direct satellite voice calling over Non-Terrestrial Networks – voice without relying on cell towers.
- Tomorrow.io announced a strategic partnership with Palantir to bring its weather intelligence into Palantir’s platforms.
After the quarter end, ICEYE expanded internationally with agreements in Japan and Slovakia, began building a constellation with IHI Corporation (four satellites to start, options up to 20 more), and completed a joint venture with Rheinmetall, with the first satellite to be manufactured locally in 2026 to support Ukrainian capabilities.
Portfolio shape and funding runway
SSIT remains concentrated in its leading winners. ICEYE, D‑Orbit, ALL.SPACE and HawkEye 360 together make up 67.7% of NAV. That concentration cuts both ways – it gives strong exposure to the highest-conviction assets, but it also means NAV movements will be driven by a handful of names.
On funding, roughly half the portfolio – representing 69% of fair value – has a robust cash runway. Within that, 58% is fully funded and another 11% is funded for 12 months or more from 30 September 2025. The flip side is that the remainder may need further capital sooner, which is typical for growth-stage venture assets but something to watch in a more selective funding market.
Why the discount matters: -40.8% is unusually wide
The share price fell 17.3% over the quarter to 70.8p, while NAV per share rose 0.9% to 119.55p. That pushed the discount out to -40.8% from -27.8%. The RNS does not provide reasons for the market move, but the gap is striking given ongoing contract wins, portfolio progress and falling ongoing charges (now 1.51%).
For investors, a wide discount can provide upside if it narrows – for example, via portfolio liquidity events, improved sentiment, or clearer visibility on valuation methodologies. Equally, discounts can stay wide if risk appetite remains low. It cuts both ways.
Catalysts to watch over the next six months
- Resolution of “corporate activity” at ICEYE and HawkEye 360, and any shift back to comparable-multiples valuations.
- Conversion of announced contracts into revenue and cash burn improvement across key holdings.
- Further exits from listed or private positions to bolster cash, following the Arqit and Spire disposals.
- Government and defence procurement momentum – a recurring theme across the update.
- Currency – FX helped this quarter; that can move both ways.
Risks and watchouts
- Concentration risk: ICEYE at 34.7% of NAV and the top four at 67.7% means single-name developments can swing NAV.
- Funding risk for parts of the portfolio outside the “robust runway” bucket.
- Private valuation sensitivity to methodology changes and market comparables.
- Discount risk: the -40.8% discount is wide but may persist if sentiment is weak.
- FX reversal could offset operating progress.
My take: fundamentals improving, sentiment lagging
This is a quietly constructive quarter for SSIT’s NAV. Portfolio companies are signing meaningful government contracts, launching new satellites and capabilities, and attracting strategic partners. The fair value uplift at HawkEye 360 offsets ICEYE’s methodology-driven trim, and charges continue to trend the right way.
Yet the market has pushed the shares down, stretching the discount to -40.8%. For patient investors, that looks like a sizable discrepancy to NAV backed by tangible contract wins and a better funded core. The near-term swing factor is the outcome of corporate activity at ICEYE and HawkEye 360 – clarity there could help bridge the gap between private progress and public pricing.
Bottom line: the operational story is moving forwards while the share price has gone backwards. If the announced milestones convert into cash flows and valuations stabilise on comparable metrics, today’s discount could be giving long-term investors a generous margin for error. The RNS is light on precise timelines, but the next six months should be telling.
