Time Out Group Cuts EBITDA Guidance and Secures £6M Loan from Oakley Capital

Time Out Group cuts EBITDA guidance and brings in £6 million from Oakley Capital

Time Out Group has reset expectations for FY25 and bolstered liquidity with a new related-party loan. Revenue is now expected to be £75 million with adjusted EBITDA of £7-£9 million, down from previously withdrawn guidance of £11-£13 million and against FY24’s £12.4 million. The story is a tale of two divisions: Markets growing, Media shrinking.

Here is what changed, why it matters, and what to watch next.

FY25 trading snapshot: growth in Markets, drag in Media

Markets revenue rose to £47 million, up 10% year on year (+13% in constant currency), helped by a larger footprint and more customer activity. Media revenue fell to £28 million, down 22% year on year (-20% in constant currency) as traditional advertising weakened further.

Group revenue is guided to £75 million, 4% lower than FY24 (-2% in constant currency). On those numbers, the implied adjusted EBITDA margin lands around 9%-12%.

Metric	FY25 (guidance/actual)	FY24	Change
Group revenue	£75 million	£78 million	-4% (-2% cc)
Adjusted Group EBITDA	£7-£9 million	£12.4 million	Lower
Markets revenue	£47 million	£42 million	+10% (+13% cc)
Media revenue	£28 million	£36 million	-22% (-20% cc)

Why Q4 disappointed

• Media deals slipped – some contracts were delayed into FY26.
• Extreme heat hit US Markets in June – management says Markets have since returned to growth.
• Expected Q4 cost items were pushed into Q1 FY26 – negotiations are still ongoing.

Markets division: expansion on track and customers up 21%

The Markets portfolio is performing in line with management expectations. Customer transactions climbed 21% year on year to over 11 million, signalling stronger footfall and spend across the estate.

Two new openings are scheduled for H2 CY25: Manhattan (owned and operated) and Budapest (management agreement). A further four management agreement sites are contracted to open by 2027, with more announcements expected later this calendar year.

Management’s objective is to double Market EBITDA over the next two years. Delivery against that target hinges on new site openings, like-for-like growth in existing sites, out-of-home advertising, loyalty programmes and leveraging a growing customer database.

Media division: audience surges, monetisation lags

Time Out’s global monthly brand audience reach rose 44% to 224 million, driven by social media. However, traditional advertising revenues continue to decline as consumer behaviour shifts from the open Web to social platforms and AI-driven environments – a trend the Board expects to persist.

Time Out has moved quickly on costs. Media opex was materially reduced in H2 FY25 and into FY26, with £4 million of year-on-year savings already actioned for FY26 vs FY25. A strategic review, launched in May 2025, is evaluating routes to sustainable profitability by better monetising unique content and this larger global audience, while driving traffic and revenue to Markets. The outcomes are expected alongside the FY25 audited results this autumn.

New £6 million related-party loan: terms, purpose, and governance

To support growth, the Company has entered into a £6.0 million loan note instrument with existing shareholder Oakley Capital Limited. An initial £1.5 million has been drawn for working capital, with the remainder available for further drawdowns.

• Maturity: 31 December 2026
• Security: Unsecured
• Interest: 8% margin, accrued in kind (PIK – interest added to the balance rather than paid in cash)
• Arrangement fee: 1.25%

This is a related-party transaction because Oakley Capital Investments holds 136,082,622 shares, representing approximately 38.08% of the issued share capital. The independent directors, having consulted the Company’s nominated adviser, consider the terms fair and reasonable for shareholders.

Why it matters: the facility strengthens liquidity during a period of softer trading and ongoing expansion. The cost of capital is not trivial, but PIK interest preserves cash while new Markets come on stream. The unsecured nature helps maintain flexibility.

Cost actions and operating discipline

The opex reduction programme is well underway. To date, £10 million of savings have been actioned, of which £4 million should deliver pro-forma savings in FY26 vs FY25. Some additional commercial negotiations slipped from Q4 FY25 into Q1 FY26, so there is more work to translate plans into the P&L.

In short: the cost base is moving in the right direction, but execution and timing matter.

Management commentary and near-term catalysts

The CEO highlights that Markets have returned to growth after a soft June and points to momentum in higher-value Media activities such as social, email, scalable brand campaigns and live events. The emphasis on human editorial – and deepening direct relationships with audiences – aligns with the shift away from algorithm-governed discovery.

What to watch next

• FY25 audited results and Media strategy update – due this autumn.
• Progress on Manhattan and Budapest openings in H2 CY25 – timelines, capex, and trading ramps.
• Further site announcements for the Markets pipeline – particularly management agreements that are lower risk to capital.
• Like-for-like performance in existing Markets – confirmation that growth has resumed and is sustained.
• Use of the Oakley facility – pace of drawdowns and visibility on cash needs.
• Follow-through on opex negotiations slipping into Q1 FY26.

My take: balanced, with clear execution risk

Time Out’s investment case is increasingly centred on the Markets division. The numbers support that shift – double-digit Markets growth and 21% more customer transactions are encouraging, and the pipeline is real with six sites either imminent or contracted through 2027. If management can double Market EBITDA over two years, the Group mix and resilience improve meaningfully.

The challenge is Media. A 22% revenue decline is hefty, even with a 44% audience uplift. Cost reductions help, but the division needs a sharper monetisation model to avoid being a persistent drag. The upcoming strategy outcome is crucial.

The new £6 million facility from Oakley is pragmatic. It shores up the balance sheet through the rollout phase without immediate equity dilution. That said, 8% PIK plus fees is a reminder that capital has a cost – successful openings and better Media monetisation will need to do the heavy lifting.

Key takeaways for shareholders

• Guidance trimmed – adjusted EBITDA now £7-£9 million on £75 million of revenue.
• Markets is the growth engine – revenue up 10%, >11 million transactions, two new sites in H2 CY25 and four more contracted by 2027.
• Media is being reset – audience up, revenue down, £4 million of FY26 opex savings and a strategy review concluding this autumn.
• Liquidity buffered – £6 million unsecured related-party loan, £1.5 million drawn, maturing 31 December 2026 with 8% PIK interest.
• Cost base tightening – £10 million savings actioned, with £4 million pro-forma benefit expected in FY26 vs FY25.

Net-net: the direction of travel is sensible – lean into Markets, fix Media, and keep the runway long enough to execute. Delivery on the next openings and the Media roadmap will determine whether FY26 looks like a step-change or just a stabilisation year.