Air Astana Reports Resilient 9M Revenue Growth Despite Q3 Engine Challenges

Air Astana’s Q3 and 9M 2025: solid top line, engine headaches clip margins

Air Astana has posted a resilient nine-month performance with double‑digit revenue growth, despite a challenging third quarter dominated by Pratt & Whitney engine issues, a weaker Tenge and some airport closures. Demand remains strong, the network is expanding, and cash is healthy. But profitability took a clear hit in the peak summer months.

Quick refresher on jargon used below:

• ASK: Available Seat Kilometres – a measure of capacity.
• RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometres – traffic actually flown by paying passengers.
• RASK: Revenue per ASK – revenue per unit of capacity.
• CASK: Cost per ASK – cost per unit of capacity.
• EBITDAR: Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and leases – a cash profit proxy used by airlines.

Headline numbers investors should care about

For the first nine months, total revenue and other income rose 10.1% to USD 1,096.8 million, with EBITDAR up 3.5% to USD 262.2 million. EBITDAR margin slipped 1.5 percentage points to 23.9% and profit after tax fell 39.8% to USD 31.2 million as costs and disruption mounted. Capacity (ASK) grew 16.8% and traffic (RPK) rose 15.4%, keeping the load factor broadly steady at 83.0%.

Q3 tells the story of the summer squeeze: revenue up 7.2% to USD 438.6 million, but EBITDAR down 17.0% to USD 105.2 million and PAT down 56.5% to USD 20.6 million. RASK fell 7.0% to USD 6.45¢ while CASK rose 2.1% to USD 5.79¢, reversing the usual spread that underpins margins.

Metric	9M 2025	9M 2024	YoY	Q3 2025	Q3 2024	YoY
Revenue and other income (USD m)	1,096.8	996.5	+10.1%	438.6	409.3	+7.2%
EBITDAR (USD m)	262.2	252.3/253.3	+3.5%	105.2	126.7	-17.0%
EBITDAR margin	23.9%	25.4%	-1.5 pp	24.0%	31.0%	-7.0 pp
PAT (USD m)	31.2	51.9	-39.8%	20.6	47.3	-56.5%
ASK (bn)	17.1	14.6	+16.8%	6.8	5.9	+15.2%
RPK (bn)	14.2	12.3	+15.4%	5.8	5.1	+12.7%
RASK (US cents)	6.43	6.82	-5.7%	6.45	6.94	-7.0%
CASK (US cents)	5.90	6.08	-3.0%	5.79	5.67	+2.1%
Passengers (m)	7.5	6.8	+10.5%	3.0	2.8	+8.8%
Load factor	83.0%	84.0%	-1.0 pp	85.0%	87.0%	-1.9 pp
Cash and bank balances (USD m)	539.6	473.9	+13.9%	539.6	473.9	+13.9%
Net Debt/EBITDAR	1.33x	1.28x	+0.05	1.33x	1.28x	+0.05

Note: the RNS shows 9M 2024 EBITDAR as USD 252.3 million in the highlights and USD 253.3 million in the table – the growth rate is 3.5% either way.

What hurt Q3 margins: engines, currency, and closures

The big swing factor was Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine problems. Air Astana recorded 19 unscheduled engine removals (UERs) year‑to‑date, 14 of them in summer, grounding up to 13 aircraft in peak season. Management estimates the Q3 EBITDAR impact at USD 25.5 million. The company is renegotiating compensation with Pratt & Whitney because the existing support agreement only covered the powdered metal issue.

FX was the second blow. The Tenge weakened a further 5% in Q3 (12% since Q3 2024), hitting FlyArystan hardest as it is 77% domestic by revenue. That shaved an estimated USD 7.1 million off FlyArystan EBITDAR in the quarter, partly offset by a smaller positive effect at Air Astana. Lastly, seven airport closures, including Astana, cost USD 4.2 million in Q3. Maintenance costs also rose by around USD 1.8 million.

Demand, network and fleet: growth engines still humming

Despite the disruption, demand held up strongly. Group passengers rose 8.8% in Q3 to 3.0 million, and the load factor stayed a healthy 85.0%. Air Astana pivoted capacity toward higher‑margin international routes: Q3 ASK growth was 19% on international vs 10% domestic, continuing the 9M trend of 23% international vs 10% domestic.

The Group launched 22 new routes in 9M 2025 and deepened access to key “megamarkets”. Codeshares with China Southern and Air India now cover 50 weekly Kazakhstan‑China flights and key India routes (Almaty‑Delhi and Almaty‑Mumbai). Management expects extra winter feed from partners as higher‑cost airlines step back from Frankfurt and Seoul.

Fleetwise, Air Astana is keeping it simple and efficient: the last Embraer E2 has gone, leaving A320 family jets (including six A321LR) and Boeing 767s. The fleet stood at 61 aircraft at 30 September, rising to 62 post period with one more A321neo. The long‑haul story accelerated too, with an order for up to 15 Boeing 787‑9 Dreamliners on top of three due in 2026/27, taking potential wide‑bodies to 18 by 2035.

Operational mitigation: in‑house muscle and digital tools

Air Astana has leaned on its in‑house Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul capability to blunt the engine shock. Since January 2024 the team has completed 180 PW1100G engine swaps, secured 13 spare engines, and leased five extra A320 family aircraft. Workshop bottlenecks across the industry mean powdered‑metal‑affected engines are assumed to be off‑wing for about 18 months on average, with the broader backlog now expected to persist through 2028.

Efficiency measures are tangible: parallel heavy C‑checks, plans for new hangars in Almaty and Astana from 2026, a second A320 full‑flight simulator going live in January 2026, and digital tools that trim costs. Jeppesen’s optimisation cut crew duty days by 14% and freed 17% of positioning seats for sale. An AI‑driven fuel platform with StorkJet is supporting up to a 3% reduction in fuel burn.

Balance sheet, hedging and guidance

Liquidity looks solid with USD 539.6 million of cash and bank balances at 30 September and cash‑to‑sales at 38.3%. Leverage is a modest 1.33x Net Debt/EBITDAR, comfortably inside medium‑term guidance. About 70% of fuel uplift is sourced domestically in Kazakhstan; for the remaining international uplift, the Group is 50% hedged for Q4 2025 at USD 70 and USD 75, and for Q1 2026 at USD 70, using options with no downside risk.

The near‑term outlook acknowledges pressure: FY 2025 CASK is expected to be slightly ahead of RASK growth. Even so, management expects to deliver growth in 2025 and sticks to medium‑term targets of a mid‑to‑high 20s EBITDAR margin, a liquidity ratio above 25%, leverage below 3.0x and a total fleet of 84 aircraft by the end of 2029.

My take: resilient business, but recovery depends on engines and FX

• Positives: strong demand, smart capacity allocation toward international routes, expanding codeshares into China and India, robust liquidity, and clear operational self‑help via MRO, crew optimisation and fuel efficiency.
• Negatives: the engine saga is proving stickier and broader than powdered metal alone, with UERs crimping peak‑season earnings. Currency weakness hit FlyArystan and the RASK‑CASK spread turned adverse in Q3, dragging margins and PAT.

In short, Air Astana is executing well on what it can control. The swing factors from here are threefold: compensation terms with Pratt & Whitney, the pace of engine returns to service through 2028, and pricing traction at FlyArystan to offset Tenge devaluation. If those break right, the demand backdrop and network breadth leave plenty of upside to margins.

What to watch next

• Any update on renegotiated compensation with Pratt & Whitney for UER‑related disruption.
• Evidence that RASK stabilises and the CASK trend reverses as grounded capacity returns.
• Winter traffic uplift from codeshare partners on Frankfurt and Seoul and from China/India routes.
• Cash trajectory and leverage staying within guidance while the fleet steps up toward 84 by 2029.

Where to find the source materials

Management hosted a presentation and Q&A on 11 November 2025. The results deck, webcast recording and IFRS financials are available on the company’s investor site: https://ir.airastana.com.