Air Astana Reports Resilient 9M Revenue Growth Despite Q3 Engine Challenges

FX was the second blow. The Tenge weakened a further 5% in Q3 (12% since Q3 2024), hitting FlyArystan hardest as it is 77% domestic by revenue. That shaved an estimated USD 7.1 million off FlyArystan EBITDAR in the quarter, partly offset by a smaller positive effect at Air Astana. Lastly, seven airport closures, including Astana, cost USD 4.2 million in Q3. Maintenance costs also rose by around USD 1.8 million.

Demand, network and fleet: growth engines still humming

Despite the disruption, demand held up strongly. Group passengers rose 8.8% in Q3 to 3.0 million, and the load factor stayed a healthy 85.0%. Air Astana pivoted capacity toward higher‑margin international routes: Q3 ASK growth was 19% on international vs 10% domestic, continuing the 9M trend of 23% international vs 10% domestic.

The Group launched 22 new routes in 9M 2025 and deepened access to key “megamarkets”. Codeshares with China Southern and Air India now cover 50 weekly Kazakhstan‑China flights and key India routes (Almaty‑Delhi and Almaty‑Mumbai). Management expects extra winter feed from partners as higher‑cost airlines step back from Frankfurt and Seoul.

Fleetwise, Air Astana is keeping it simple and efficient: the last Embraer E2 has gone, leaving A320 family jets (including six A321LR) and Boeing 767s. The fleet stood at 61 aircraft at 30 September, rising to 62 post period with one more A321neo. The long‑haul story accelerated too, with an order for up to 15 Boeing 787‑9 Dreamliners on top of three due in 2026/27, taking potential wide‑bodies to 18 by 2035.

Operational mitigation: in‑house muscle and digital tools

Air Astana has leaned on its in‑house Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul capability to blunt the engine shock. Since January 2024 the team has completed 180 PW1100G engine swaps, secured 13 spare engines, and leased five extra A320 family aircraft. Workshop bottlenecks across the industry mean powdered‑metal‑affected engines are assumed to be off‑wing for about 18 months on average, with the broader backlog now expected to persist through 2028.

Efficiency measures are tangible: parallel heavy C‑checks, plans for new hangars in Almaty and Astana from 2026, a second A320 full‑flight simulator going live in January 2026, and digital tools that trim costs. Jeppesen’s optimisation cut crew duty days by 14% and freed 17% of positioning seats for sale. An AI‑driven fuel platform with StorkJet is supporting up to a 3% reduction in fuel burn.

Balance sheet, hedging and guidance

Liquidity looks solid with USD 539.6 million of cash and bank balances at 30 September and cash‑to‑sales at 38.3%. Leverage is a modest 1.33x Net Debt/EBITDAR, comfortably inside medium‑term guidance. About 70% of fuel uplift is sourced domestically in Kazakhstan; for the remaining international uplift, the Group is 50% hedged for Q4 2025 at USD 70 and USD 75, and for Q1 2026 at USD 70, using options with no downside risk.

The near‑term outlook acknowledges pressure: FY 2025 CASK is expected to be slightly ahead of RASK growth. Even so, management expects to deliver growth in 2025 and sticks to medium‑term targets of a mid‑to‑high 20s EBITDAR margin, a liquidity ratio above 25%, leverage below 3.0x and a total fleet of 84 aircraft by the end of 2029.

My take: resilient business, but recovery depends on engines and FX

• Positives: strong demand, smart capacity allocation toward international routes, expanding codeshares into China and India, robust liquidity, and clear operational self‑help via MRO, crew optimisation and fuel efficiency.
• Negatives: the engine saga is proving stickier and broader than powdered metal alone, with UERs crimping peak‑season earnings. Currency weakness hit FlyArystan and the RASK‑CASK spread turned adverse in Q3, dragging margins and PAT.

In short, Air Astana is executing well on what it can control. The swing factors from here are threefold: compensation terms with Pratt & Whitney, the pace of engine returns to service through 2028, and pricing traction at FlyArystan to offset Tenge devaluation. If those break right, the demand backdrop and network breadth leave plenty of upside to margins.

What to watch next

• Any update on renegotiated compensation with Pratt & Whitney for UER‑related disruption.
• Evidence that RASK stabilises and the CASK trend reverses as grounded capacity returns.
• Winter traffic uplift from codeshare partners on Frankfurt and Seoul and from China/India routes.
• Cash trajectory and leverage staying within guidance while the fleet steps up toward 84 by 2029.

Where to find the source materials

Management hosted a presentation and Q&A on 11 November 2025. The results deck, webcast recording and IFRS financials are available on the company’s investor site: https://ir.airastana.com.