Canal+ 2025 results: profit up, cash flying, scale transformed
Canal+ has posted unaudited preliminary numbers for 2025 and a chunky strategy update following its takeover of MultiChoice. The headlines: guidance met or beaten on the historic Canal+ perimeter, strong cash generation, and a clear – if demanding – plan to turn around MultiChoice. A secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is also on the near-term agenda.
Important scope notes from the RNS: 2025 “reported” results include 3 months 11 days of MultiChoice and exclude Vietnam (now classified as discontinued). Canal+ also discloses the “historical perimeter” (excluding MultiChoice and Vietnam) to compare against guidance.
Key 2025 numbers investors should know
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Revenue – Canal+ historical perimeter (excl. Vietnam, excl. MultiChoice) | €6,266 million (+1.0% organic) |
| Adjusted EBIT before exceptional items – Canal+ historical | €542 million (8.7% margin) |
| Revenue – Group reported (incl. 3m11d MultiChoice, excl. Vietnam) | €6,949 million |
| Adjusted EBIT before exceptional items – Group reported | €646 million |
| CFFO – Canal+ historical (after exceptional items) | €606 million |
| FCF – Canal+ historical (after exceptional items) | €448 million |
| Net debt (year end) | €1,997 million |
| Subscribers (combined, excl. Vietnam) | 42.3 million |
| Proposed dividend | 2.2 euro cents per share (+10%) |
Profitability stepped up: the Canal+ historical margin improved to 8.7% from 8.1% in 2024, with Europe 15% more profitable year on year. Cash was excellent, helped by content payment phasing and disciplined spend. On a reported basis, basic EPS for equity holders was a loss of €0.05, reflecting €346 million of exceptional items, including VAT and TST tax settlements.
MultiChoice: scale gained, turnaround required
On a 12-month unaudited basis to 31 December 2025, MultiChoice revenue fell 6% to €2,400 million as the subscriber base slipped to 14.4 million. Adjusted EBIT declined 14% to €159 million. CFFO improved to €226 million, but FCF remained negative at (€42 million) before exceptional items, partly due to high tax and interest payments.
Management’s diagnosis is blunt: macro headwinds (including Nigerian currency devaluation and power issues), an expensive OTT misstep with Showmax, and content cost inflation have hurt the P&L. Short-term fixes like price rises and lower acquisition subsidies dented subscriber momentum.
The 2026 fix-it plan
- €100 million “growth boost” investment to reignite subscriber acquisition, including equipment subsidies and over 1,000 new sales hires on the ground.
- Accelerated synergies of €250 million in 2026 (up from €150 million previously guided), helped by exiting Showmax and streamlining support functions and Irdeto.
- Simplified offers, stronger local content pipeline, and tighter anti-piracy measures.
That nets to an estimated €170 million Adjusted EBIT for MultiChoice in 2026, €100 million CFFO and negative (€50 million) FCF before restructuring costs. The heavy lifting is ahead, but the levers are clear.
2026 guidance and medium-term targets: steady build
- Combined 2026 guidance: Adjusted EBIT €735 million, CFFO above €600 million, FCF above €250 million (all before VAT settlement and restructuring costs).
- Canal+ historical (excl. Vietnam, excl. MultiChoice): Adjusted EBIT rising from €542 million to €565 million in 2026, margin above 9%, CFFO above €500 million and FCF above €300 million.
- MultiChoice 2026 (incl. synergies and boost plan): Adjusted EBIT ~€170 million, CFFO €100 million, FCF (€50 million).
- Medium term for the combined group: Adjusted EBIT above €850 million, CFFO above €800 million, FCF above €500 million (before VAT settlement and restructuring costs).
Management also reiterated run-rate cost savings from synergies of €400 million from 2030 onwards.
Europe: fewer costly rights, better margins
European revenue was €4,565 million, down 3.5% reported due to deliberate content and channel exits (Disney contract termination, end of UEFA sublicensing, C8 closure). Organically, revenue grew 1.1%. Adjusted EBIT before exceptional items rose to €250 million (5.5% margin vs 4.6% in 2024) thanks to content portfolio rationalisation and cost discipline. France stood out despite lower wholesale revenue from the Disney exit, with customer satisfaction at record levels and churn slightly better.
Content and platform moves: rights locked, aggregation scaled
- UEFA men’s competitions in France renewed exclusively for 2027-2031 at a price consistent with the profit push.
- Netflix partnership expanded to 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and broader smart TV distribution through Samsung and Thomson.
- StudioCanal kept its hit machine humming: Paddington in Peru ($210m+ lifetime), Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy ($136m), and more. Dailymotion revenue exceeded €100 million, up over 20%.
- Selective M&A: 34% of UGC (path to control from 2028) and 51% of Lucky Red in Italy, adding a 500+ title library.
- Non-core disposals: Vietnam, CanalOlympia, CANAL+ DTT in France, and C8.
Balance sheet, refinancing and returns
Net debt closed at €1,997 million after the MultiChoice acquisition. Refinancing was substantial and, crucially, cheaper:
- €320 million Schuldschein, €700 million Eurobond due 2030, and €1,800 million in new bank facilities.
- Leverage covenant was 2.75x at year-end (below the 3.5x limit); the cost of funding has reduced.
Shareholder returns ticked up. The Board proposes a 10% dividend increase to 2.2 euro cents per share (record date 12 June, payment 15 June 2026, subject to AGM approval). The 2025 buyback purchased 11,408,237 shares for GBP £27 million to satisfy employee plans. A JSE secondary listing is targeted by H1 2026 to broaden the investor base.
Josh’s take: a solid year, a bold integration, and a clear to-do list
On what Canal+ can control today, delivery was good: profit margins are improving, cash generation surprised positively, tax uncertainties are largely cleared, and the balance sheet has been sensibly refinanced. The European mix shift away from pricier rights is working, not hurting subscriber momentum on with-commitment offers in France.
The MultiChoice acquisition is the swing factor. The opportunity is obvious – 42.3 million combined subscribers and leadership across fast-growing African markets – but this is a multi-year fix that needs flawless execution. The accelerated €250 million synergies guide for 2026, Showmax exit, and the €100 million growth boost look like the right calls. Still, macro volatility, FX, and the cost of reigniting subscriber growth will keep a lid on free cash flow from Africa this year.
Risks and what to watch next
- MultiChoice subscriber trends in 2026 as the boost plan lands, and progress on the €250 million synergies.
- Timing and cash impact of the €363 million VAT settlement (payment schedule not yet finalised).
- European margins holding above 9% at the Canal+ historical level after the rights reshuffle.
- FCF delivery vs guidance: above €250 million for the group despite a (€50 million) FCF guide at MultiChoice.
- JSE listing by H1 2026 – could improve liquidity and expand the local shareholder register.
- Content cost discipline in the next round of tenders and the benefit from StudioCanal’s slate.
Bottom line for retail investors
Canal+ exits 2025 with more scale, better margins, and a healthier funding mix. 2026 is about execution: deliver the synergies, stabilise MultiChoice, and keep European profitability edging up. If management hits its 2026 and medium-term targets – €735 million Adjusted EBIT this year and over €850 million in the medium term – the equity story strengthens. The dividend uptick is modest but sensible while the group beds in its biggest deal.
Net-net, a constructive update with clear markers to track. The Africa turnaround is the key risk and the main upside.
