Canal+ Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance, Secures MultiChoice Control and JSE Listing

Why it matters:

• Scale: a combined base of more than 40 million subscribers across nearly 70 countries and about 17,000 employees.
• Access: a JSE secondary listing preserves South African investor access and could broaden the shareholder base.
• Synergies: integration is underway with a strategic update and synergy details due in Q1 26.

In the numbers today, MultiChoice adds €78 million for 11 days in September – the full P&L impact will come through from Q4 onwards.

Guidance confirmed: revenue on track, EBITA and cash intact

Management has reiterated full-year 2025 guidance (excluding MultiChoice). The targets are:

• EBITA – c. €515 million. EBITA is adjusted earnings before interest and income taxes, excluding non-recurring items.
• CFFO – cash flow from operations to exceed €500 million.
• FCF – over €370 million free cash flow expected in FY25, boosted by high CFFO and lower tax this year following tax integration and refunds in H1 2025. Taxes normalise in H2 2025.

The company also notes that a one-off contract phasing update is not expected to structurally impact CFFO beyond 2025, with positive cash effects from initiatives ramping in 2026, including the renewed French cinema financing agreement, cost reductions in France, and improving profitability at GVA and Dailymotion.

What drove the segments: Europe mixed, Africa & Asia resilient, content phased

Europe: organic growth but reported down due to strategic exits

Europe revenue was €3,411 million. Organically, it grew 1.0%. Reported revenue fell 3.8%, reflecting the Disney and UEFA contract terminations and the C8 closure. CNEWS is a bright spot with record audiences and higher advertising revenue. Poland remains strong, with OTT and DTH price increases and better advertising across owned channels.

Africa & Asia: modest growth with specific pockets of strength

Africa & Asia delivered €783 million, up 0.5% reported and 1.3% like-for-like. GVA – the fibre business – posted double-digit revenue growth as its FTTH network expanded and penetration rose in Congo, Ivory Coast and DRC. Vietnam declined due to rationalisation and a wholesale contract termination, partly offset by the launch of Premier League broadcasting in Myanmar from August.

Content production and distribution: timing effects, but Q3 was strong

The segment was €485 million for 9M, up 0.7% reported and slightly down like-for-like as deliveries were lighter versus a big 2024 slate. Successes in the period included theatrical releases such as Paddington in Peru, Bridget Jones: Mad about the Boy and We Live In Time, alongside series sales like Wild Lands. Dailymotion delivered robust double-digit revenue growth through international expansion and product enhancements.

Strategic moves: UGC stake, Premier League expansion, and distribution upgrades

• UGC: Canal+ signed to acquire a 34% stake in UGC, a leading French cinema group, with a potential path to control from 2028. UGC’s library and IP would expand STUDIOCANAL’s catalogue of over 9,400 titles and underlines Canal+’s commitment to cinema.
• Sports rights: the Premier League partnership now spans over 50 countries across Europe, Africa and Asia, including expanded rights in Poland and new rights in Myanmar.
• Distribution: the Canal+ App will be pre-installed on new Thomson Smart TVs in Europe with a dedicated remote button, and the group is the first media partner committed to Dolby Vision 2 for enhanced picture quality.
• Originals and IP: new series and film activity continues, from Apollo has Fallen to Army of Shadows, while Paddington The Musical opens in London on 30 November 2025.

Capital and tax: funding secured, VAT clarity in France, small buyback

• Debt: the first Schuldschein loan raised €285 million after strong demand, improving the overall cost of funds.
• VAT: France has confirmed a reduced 10% VAT rate for linear TV services (the core of the French business) and ancillary services, with 20% applicable to certain other services. Discussions on prior periods are ongoing.
• Buyback: a new buyback programme of up to £31 million runs to 19 December 2025 to satisfy share-based incentive plans. It is modest and primarily administrative rather than a capital return lever.

The balanced view: positives, pressures, and what to watch

What looks positive

• Guidance intact across revenue, EBITA, CFFO and FCF for 2025, despite contract exits.
• All segments delivered organic growth in Q3.
• Transformational scale and optionality from MultiChoice, with a clear route to full ownership and a JSE secondary listing to broaden investor access.
• Distribution and technology partnerships that should support subscriber engagement and ARPU over time.

What needs monitoring

• Integration execution and synergy delivery for MultiChoice – detail due in Q1 26.
• FX headwinds, especially in Europe and Africa, which affected like-for-like and reported trends.
• STUDIOCANAL delivery phasing – the 2025 slate is lighter versus 2024 in some areas.
• VAT discussions for prior periods in France – current regime is clarified, but historic treatment is not resolved.

Bottom line for investors

Canal+ is navigating a deliberate reshaping of its portfolio while keeping the cash and EBITA targets on track. The MultiChoice consolidation is the headline act – more scale, wider reach, and the prospect of synergies to come. Near term, expect reported revenue to remain noisy as discontinued contracts unwind, but the organic trajectory and cash outlook are reassuring.

If management executes on integration and continues to deepen distribution partnerships, the investment case tilts more towards dependable cash generation with optionality from content, sports rights and new markets. For now, the company has done what it said it would do – and that counts.