Geiger Counter’s 2025 results: big NAV rebound, stubborn discount, and a bullish uranium backdrop
Geiger Counter Limited has released its Annual Report for the year to 30 September 2025 and it’s a strong read if you’re bullish on uranium. After a weak start to the year, the Company’s net asset value (NAV) per ordinary share recovered sharply to 71.66p, up 32.89% over the full year. The share price also rose 32.88%, though the shares still closed the period on a 17.39% discount to NAV.
What’s driving it? Management puts it down to a tight uranium fuel supply chain meeting rising nuclear power demand – and a portfolio positioned to benefit. Below I unpack the key numbers, why the market set-up matters, and how the fund is positioned.
NAV up 32.89% and share price +32.88% – what moved the dial
NAV per share improved from 53.93p (30 September 2024) to 71.66p (30 September 2025), recovering from a mid-year low of 33.71p at 31 March 2025. The discount to NAV closed at 17.39%, which the Board describes as “stubbornly wide” despite strong returns over one, three and five years.
Quick jargon check:
- NAV per share is the value of the portfolio (minus liabilities) divided by shares in issue.
- Discount to NAV is how far the share price sits below the NAV – wider discounts can offer value, but they can also persist.
| Metric | Figure | As at/Period |
|---|---|---|
| NAV per ordinary share | 71.66p | 30 Sep 2025 |
| NAV per ordinary share | 53.93p | 30 Sep 2024 |
| NAV per ordinary share | 33.71p | 31 Mar 2025 |
| Full-year NAV increase | 32.89% | FY to 30 Sep 2025 |
| Share price return | 32.88% | FY to 30 Sep 2025 |
| Discount to NAV | 17.39% | 30 Sep 2025 |
Buybacks and Main Market move – actions to tackle the discount
Geiger Counter has been active with buybacks, which can support the NAV per share and help trim the discount by reducing the share count. During the year, the Company repurchased 28,210,360 shares at a cost of £12.3m. Since 30 September, a further 8,144,747 shares have been bought back for £4.7m.
Separately, the shares moved to the London Stock Exchange Main Market on 11 December 2024. The Board expects the Main Market listing to broaden the investor base and improve liquidity.
Subscription Rights – 1-for-5 at 37.20p and proposal for ongoing use
The Annual Subscription Right allows holders to subscribe for 1 new share for every 5 held on 30 April each year, at a price equal to the undiluted NAV per share on 1 May one year prior. For the current cycle, the Company confirmed a price of 37.20 pence per share on 1 May 2025, with an exercise date of 30 April 2026.
Looking beyond that, the Board intends to propose the continuation of the Subscription Right annually after April 2026. If shareholders do not pass the resolution, the Directors will propose amendments to remove the right. For investors, this mechanism can be a useful tool to add exposure at a pre-set price, but it also needs to be weighed against any potential dilution effects.
Uranium market tailwinds – supply deficit meets rising nuclear demand
The Investment Adviser frames 2025 as an acceleration of the “Nuclear Renaissance”. According to the IEA, global nuclear capacity is set to increase by at least one-third to 2035, with over 40 countries planning to expand. The World Nuclear Outlook Report Preview 2025 suggests global capacity could reach 1,428 GWe by 2050, above the 1,200 GWe target set in December 2023.
On the fuel side, the spot price for U3O8 (uranium oxide) rose from an April low of $52/lb to $82/lb by end-September, helped by renewed buying from physical funds. The adviser notes the Fund’s NAV rebounded 148% from its early April low to deliver a 33% gain for the full year, broadly in line with sector benchmarks referenced.
Crucially, the supply/demand balance looks tight. Production guidance cuts at Kazatomprom (acid shortages), Cameco’s McArthur River (down to 14-15 Mlbspa from 18 Mlbspa), and Paladin (FY26 guidance trimmed to 4-4.4 Mlbs) add to the strain. The adviser argues industry scenarios may be optimistic on new supply timing, while western utilities have low inventories – in the US, just 14 months of reactor needs per the EIA.
Meanwhile, policy momentum is building. The US has issued executive orders to accelerate nuclear deployment, streamline approvals, and fund conversion and enrichment capacity, alongside plans to quadruple generating capacity to 400GW by 2050. China continues to build roughly 10 reactors per year, and India is targeting 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047 from 8 GW today. Big tech is also leaning in: the report cites long-term power deals and SMR partnerships involving Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Equinix and Oracle.
Geopolitics are in the mix. Western utilities are seeking to diversify away from Russian material, waivers run until end-2027, and a large share of conversion and enrichment capacity sits in Russia/China. The adviser’s punchline: utilities need to step up contracting or risk fuel shortages over the next decade.
Portfolio positioning – developers over producers for price torque
Geiger Counter is leaning into developers for greater sensitivity to uranium prices, with NexGen as the largest holding. The fund is underweight Cameco due to its fixed-price contract exposure over the next five years and a richer valuation (around 2x price-to-NPV) versus NexGen (closer to 1x at spot), according to the report.
Performance was led by Ur-Energy (+148%), NexGen (+55%) and Energy Fuels (+294%). The Company has exited UEC after strong gains, citing difficulty valuing its proposed conversion capacity plans.
Top holdings and the thesis behind them
- NexGen – Large, high-grade Athabasca developer with provincial permit and First Nations support, uncontracted for full uranium price participation. A federal permit hearing is flagged as a key catalyst.
- Ur-Energy – US in-situ producer with high spot exposure and a valuation the adviser views as attractive versus peers, positioned to benefit from a supportive US backdrop.
- Paladin Energy – Mostly spot-exposed producer in Namibia with additional Athabasca development optionality.
- Cameco – Still the liquid sector bellwether, underweight on valuation and contract structure, but with strategic exposure via 49% of Westinghouse and conversion pricing.
- Energy Fuels – US producer targeting ~2M lbspa with expansion projects and rare earth/vanadium angles through White Mesa Mill; potential policy support cited as a sector tailwind.
Why it matters and my take
On the positive side, the macro case is compelling: accelerating nuclear policy, AI-driven power demand, and a tight supply chain all support higher uranium prices, which typically favour developers and spot-exposed producers – exactly where this portfolio is skewed. The NAV rebound to 71.66p and 32.89% annual gain underscore that positioning.
On the negative side, the 17.39% discount remains frustrating. The Board is trying to tackle it via buybacks (£12.3m in the period and £4.7m post-period) and the Main Market listing, but there’s no quick fix. Sector sentiment can swing, and the adviser itself highlights risks around utilities’ low inventories and optimistic new supply timelines.
Pragmatically, if you believe the uranium deficit widens and utilities are forced to contract more aggressively, Geiger Counter looks well set. The Subscription Right at 37.20p for 30 April 2026 also gives existing holders a defined-price way to add, though it warrants attention to any dilution and the path of the discount. For now, the set-up remains favourable – and this portfolio looks deliberately built to capture further uranium price strength.
