Helios Towers Posts Strong FY 2025 Results Ahead of Guidance, Launches New Strategy and Shareholder Returns

2026 guidance and the new IMPACT 2030 plan

Management launched IMPACT 2030 in November and has put tangible cash returns into the mix.

• FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: US$510‑US$525 million.
• FY 2026 recurring free cash flow: US$210‑US$225 million (assumes c.US$20 million working capital outflow).
• Capex: US$110‑US$140 million to support 2,000‑2,500 tenancy additions and further power efficiency upgrades.
• Shareholder returns: US$51 million buyback (remaining from a US$75 million authorisation) and a US$25 million dividend (intended to be paid one‑third in FY 2026 and two‑thirds in FY 2027).

Across 2026‑2030, Helios is targeting more than US$1.3 billion of recurring free cash flow, deploying over US$0.5 billion into high‑return organic growth, returning at least US$0.4 billion to shareholders, and expanding ROIC to 15‑20%. The plan also sets an ambition for at least 9% Adjusted EBITDA CAGR over the period.

Why this matters for equity holders

• Visibility of cash flows: US$5.3 billion contracted revenue with 6.6 years average remaining life provides a sturdy base.
• Structural growth: mobile coverage and data demand in Helios’s nine African and Middle Eastern markets continue to rise, feeding multi‑year tenancy expansion.
• Operating leverage: each incremental colocation is highly margin accretive, helping margins and ROIC climb.
• Shift to distributions: buybacks and a dividend formalise the move from build‑out to harvest, supported by lower leverage and rising free cash flow.
• Balance sheet momentum: ratings upgrades and a 0.6x reduction in net leverage offer scope for cheaper capital and flexibility.

Points to watch (it’s not all sunshine)

• Customer concentration: the top four multinational MNOs represented 72.3% of revenue in 2025. Relationships are long term, but concentration is a real exposure.
• Tax charge volatility: tax expense jumped to US$96.6 million (from US$17.2 million), partly due to prior‑year effects and deferred tax movements. Keep an eye on cash tax versus P&L tax.
• Macro and FX: while 71% of EBITDA is hard‑currency, several markets remain inflationary and subject to regulatory change. Malawi remains hyperinflationary under IAS 29.
• Leverage still elevated: 3.4x is improved, but at the top end of the stated range. Delivery on 2026 cash generation and buybacks will need continued discipline.
• Regulatory and tax audits: the notes list a number of outstanding tax assessments in Tanzania, DRC and Congo Brazzaville. No material provisions are booked, but timing and outcomes are uncertain.

Operational detail worth a glance

• Sites ended at 14,746; total tenancies 31,944; year‑end tenancy ratio 2.17x.
• Segment margins remain robust: Middle East & North Africa 74%, East & West Africa 68%, Central & Southern Africa 52%.
• Future contracted revenue by 2026 alone totals US$731.4 million, reinforcing near‑term visibility.

My take: a confident pivot to compounding returns

These results read like a textbook inflection: scale built, lease‑up accelerating, margins edging higher, cash flow compounding, leverage easing, and now capital returning to shareholders. The early delivery of the 2.2x tenancy objective (year‑end ratio reported at 2.17x) shows execution is landing in the field, not just on slides.

Risks remain around taxation, regulation and customer concentration, and the tax line’s swing this year is a reminder that reported earnings can be noisy in these markets. Even so, the cash metrics did the talking in 2025, and 2026 guidance points to more of the same with a growing shareholder payout. If management can keep adding 2,000‑2,500 tenancies a year while holding the cost of debt and nudging ROIC up, IMPACT 2030 has every chance of doing what it says on the tin.

Net‑net: a positive update with substance. For investors comfortable with the geographies, Helios Towers is leaning into its cash generation and starting to share more of it with owners.