Hilton Food Group trims 2026 profit outlook as Foppen smoked salmon issues drag
Hilton Food Group has guided that 2025 is broadly on track, but it has cut expectations for 2026 as smoked salmon export restrictions and input cost inflation persist. The Group now expects 2026 adjusted profit before tax of £60m to £65m, down from 2025’s expected adjusted range of £72m to £75m.
Christmas trading was good across red meat and salmon, key retail contracts have been renewed in the Netherlands and Denmark, and net bank debt is guided to be around £135m. But with US stock write-offs at Foppen now expected to be “significantly higher than previously indicated” and beef and white fish inflation ongoing, the tone for 2026 is cautious.
Key numbers investors should focus on
| Metric | Guidance/Outcome | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 adjusted profit before tax | £72m to £75m | In line with prior expectations; subject to audit |
| 2026 adjusted profit before tax | £60m to £65m | Lower year-on-year on continued Foppen and inflation headwinds |
| Net bank debt (FY2025) | Around £135m | FY2024 was £131.4m |
| Foppen US stock write-offs | Significantly higher | Not quantified; expected to be treated as a non-underlying item |
| Full year results date | 31 March 2026 | Strategic review conclusions due then |
2025 trading: broadly in line, with a solid Christmas and steady debt
Hilton says its 2025 adjusted profit before tax will land within £72m to £75m. “Adjusted” means it excludes certain items that management does not consider part of underlying trading. The reported numbers are still subject to audit, but this is essentially a confirmation that the year closed as planned.
Operationally, the Group delivered a good Christmas across red meat and salmon. That matters because peak season execution is a litmus test for supplier reliability and retailer trust. Net bank debt is expected to be around £135m versus £131.4m last year, reflecting recent divestments and a planned partial unwind of UK inventory that was built up in the first half to handle festive demand.
Foppen smoked salmon: US restrictions and higher write-offs
Foppen continues to supply smoked salmon to the US from its Netherlands facility, after ongoing restrictions at its site in Greece. The new detail here is that US stock write-offs are now expected to be “significantly higher than previously indicated”. Hilton currently anticipates treating this cost as a non-underlying item – in other words, outside adjusted profit.
Two takeaways. First, the operational workaround via the Netherlands keeps product flowing, but it has not eliminated financial pain in the US channel. Second, treating the write-offs as non-underlying should shield adjusted profits, but the reported results will likely carry a notable one-off charge. The scale is not disclosed.
2026 outlook cut: why guidance moved and what it implies
Hilton now expects 2026 adjusted profit before tax of £60m to £65m. The company points to two drivers: the US restrictions on smoked salmon exports from Greece, which are expected to remain in place for at least the first half of 2026, and sustained inflationary pressure in beef and white fish.
Put simply, the salmon issue drags volumes and costs, while protein inflation keeps squeezing margins and working capital. On a rough read, the mid-point of 2026 guidance (£62.5m) is about £11m lower than the mid-point of 2025’s expected range (£73.5m). That is a meaningful reset and explains the cautious tone.
Customer partnerships renewed in the Netherlands and Denmark
There is a quiet positive in here: Hilton has successfully renewed core retail meat partnerships in the Netherlands and Denmark. In a volume-driven, high-throughput business, contract renewal equals visibility and capacity utilisation, which helps soften the blow from market-specific issues like the US salmon situation.
Good Christmas trading in both red meat and salmon also suggests execution remains strong where the Group controls the variables. That’s important for longer-term customer trust and margin protection.
Strategic review: focus on core meat, efficiency and where to create value
The strategic review is “nearing completion” and will be unveiled alongside 2025 full year results on 31 March 2026. Expect a reaffirmation of the Group’s core meat capabilities, a spotlight on areas outside those competencies, and the “strategic options available to maximise value”.
Operationally, the review is expected to identify efficiency opportunities and areas for investment, including growth into new geographies. The newly enhanced senior leadership structure – with Samy Zekhout and Melanie Chambers stepping into expanded Chief Operating Officer roles – is designed to execute against these priorities.
My take: the good, the bad, and the catalyst to watch
Positives
- 2025 lands in line: expectations met, which helps credibility.
- Christmas delivered: strong seasonal trading in key categories.
- Contract renewals: continued strength with major retail partners in the Netherlands and Denmark.
- Non-underlying treatment for Foppen write-offs: protects adjusted profitability optics.
- Strategic review nearing completion: potential for clearer focus and improved capital allocation.
Headwinds
- 2026 guidance cut: a step down to £60m-£65m adjusted PBT on persistent salmon and inflation pressures.
- Foppen US stock write-offs: “significantly higher” and not quantified, keeping uncertainty elevated.
- Inflation in beef and white fish: a margin and working capital challenge that may not ease quickly.
- Net bank debt slightly higher at around £135m, despite divestments and inventory unwind.
Net-net, this is a steady 2025 with a more testing 2026. The catalyst now is the strategic review on 31 March 2026, where investors will want updated key performance indicators, refreshed medium-term targets, and clarity on how non-core areas will be handled to “maximise value”.
What’s not disclosed (and why it matters)
- Revenue, margins and free cash flow for 2025: not disclosed.
- Size and timing of the Foppen US stock write-offs: not disclosed.
- Any changes to dividend policy or capital allocation beyond the review: not disclosed.
- Specific efficiency or investment programmes: detail to come with results.
The lack of quantification around the write-offs is the biggest gap. Watch for how these are treated in reported numbers and any knock-on effects to cash flow and debt.
What to watch between now and 31 March 2026
- Regulatory update on Greek-to-US smoked salmon restrictions and any operational rerouting.
- Detail on “strategic options” for non-core areas and whether these could accelerate deleveraging.
- Updated KPIs and medium-term targets that show the path back from £60m-£65m adjusted PBT.
- Any early wins on procurement, efficiency and mix that offset protein inflation.
Bottom line
Hilton Foods is executing reliably day-to-day, but 2026 will be a reset year. The combination of higher-than-expected US write-offs at Foppen and sticky protein inflation has forced a downgrade to adjusted profit guidance.
The strategic review is the key de-risking moment. If it sharpens focus on core meat, addresses non-core exposures, and lays out credible efficiency and growth levers, the Group can put this chapter behind it. For now, it is cautious, clear and – crucially – still in control of the things it can control.
