Marston's backs FY2026 expectations as Grandstand pubs score with World Cup crowds

What has Marston's announced?

Marston's has maintained confidence in delivering full-year market expectations after strong World Cup trading, continued margin improvement and encouraging results from its new pub formats.

The UK hospitality group, which operates more than 1,300 pubs, reported that like-for-like sales for the 42 weeks to 18 July 2026 were 1.6% lower than the comparable period last year.

That headline decline deserves attention. However, management said softer off-peak market conditions were offsetting strong growth during peak occasions. In other words, customers have been spending when there is a compelling reason to visit, but quieter trading periods remain more difficult.

For investors, the bigger message is that Marston's expects to meet FY2026 profit expectations while achieving its margin expansion target significantly earlier than originally planned. It is also preparing to accelerate investment in its strongest pub format and potentially restart shareholder returns in FY2027.

Marston's key trading figures

Measure	Performance
Year-to-date like-for-like sales	Down 1.6%
Like-for-like sales on England World Cup matchdays	Up 22%
Grandstand sales during England matchdays	Up around 170% year-on-year
Grandstand year-to-date like-for-like sales	Up around 30%
Grandstand conversions completed	36
Higher-value Order & Pay sales	Up 45% year-on-year
Margin expansion over two years	More than 200 basis points
Planned FY2027 conversions	Around 100
Expected pre-IFRS 16 leverage at FY2026 results	Around 4 times
Company-compiled FY2026 profit forecast	£78.5 million

The company-compiled market forecast is for FY2026 underlying profit before tax of £78.5 million, with forecasts ranging from £76.1 million to £83.2 million.

World Cup trading highlights the value of big occasions

England matchdays delivered like-for-like sales growth of 22%, demonstrating the role that major sporting events can play in bringing customers into pubs.

The performance was particularly strong across Marston's Grandstand pubs, where sales increased by around 170% year-on-year during England matchdays.

Grandstand is a sports-led format designed to capture demand around live events. Its World Cup performance is eye-catching, but investors should distinguish between event-driven sales and everyday underlying demand.

A major football tournament can produce exceptional trading days that will not necessarily repeat each year. Even so, the figures suggest Marston's has developed a format capable of capturing more of the spending associated with high-profile sporting occasions.

That matters because the group's strategy is not simply about owning a large pub estate. It is increasingly focused on investing behind formats that can produce stronger sales and returns from existing locations.

Grandstand conversions are doing the heavy lifting

The Grandstand format has generated year-to-date like-for-like sales growth of around 30% across the 36 conversions completed so far.

This figure includes post-investment sales compared with the prior year for each pub. Where a converted site has been open for more than 12 months, Marston's uses the latest 12 months of sales data.

The scale of the uplift explains why management plans to increase investment substantially in FY2027. Marston's expects to complete around 100 conversions, focused on Grandstand.

That creates a potential route to growth without relying solely on a recovery in the wider pub market. If the company can reproduce the performance achieved by the first 36 conversions across a broader group of pubs, the programme could support both revenue and profitability.

There is still execution risk. A larger rollout requires capital, operational discipline and suitable sites. The results from the existing conversions are strong, but the RNS does not disclose the investment required per pub or the expected payback period.

Lower sales, but higher margins

The 1.6% decline in year-to-date like-for-like sales is the main weaker point in the update. Like-for-like sales compare pubs that traded in both the current and prior periods, covering food, drink, accommodation and gaming machine income.

Marston's said softer off-peak market conditions had offset strong peak trading. This indicates that underlying customer demand is not uniformly strong across the week or calendar.

However, the company expects to achieve the EBITDA margin expansion target set at its October 2024 Capital Markets Day during the current financial year, significantly ahead of schedule.

EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. The margin measures EBITDA as a percentage of revenue and provides an indication of operating profitability before those items.

Marston's has delivered more than 200 basis points of margin expansion over the past two years. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 200 basis points equals two percentage points.

This is important because improved margins can help protect earnings when sales are subdued. Management attributed the progress to its pub operating model and disciplined cost control, although the precise margin figure was not disclosed.

Order & Pay sales at higher values were also up 45% year-on-year, while guest reputation scores continued to show strong performance. The RNS does not disclose the absolute value of these sales or the reputation scores.

Share buybacks move closer

Marston's expects pre-IFRS 16 leverage to be around four times by the FY2026 preliminary results.

Leverage generally compares debt with earnings, while the pre-IFRS 16 measure excludes the accounting treatment of leases introduced under IFRS 16. Lower leverage can give a company more flexibility to invest, manage debt and return capital to shareholders.

Once that level is reached, the board expects to begin a programme of shareholder returns alongside accelerated investment in the pub formats. Subject to market conditions, this is expected to take the form of share buybacks.

A buyback would involve Marston's purchasing its own shares, reducing the number in circulation. However, the proposed programme is not yet guaranteed, and the size, timing and cost have not been disclosed.

Growth investment remains the priority. That balance is sensible in principle, but investors will want to see that Marston's can fund the faster conversion programme while continuing to reduce financial risk.

What investors should watch next

This update contains a mixed sales picture but a confident profit and capital allocation message.

The clear positives are strong Grandstand performance, successful World Cup trading, more than 200 basis points of margin expansion and confidence in meeting FY2026 expectations. The prospect of FY2027 buybacks adds another potentially important element.

The main concern is that total like-for-like sales remain 1.6% below last year, showing that strong peak occasions have not fully overcome softer off-peak conditions.

Attention now turns to summer trading, delivery against the £78.5 million company-compiled profit expectation, progress towards leverage of around four times and further detail on the planned 100 conversions. Investors will also be watching for confirmation of any buyback programme at the FY2026 preliminary results.