MedPal AI October trading update: repeat revenue doubles as run rate reaches £49 million

MedPal AI plc reported another sharp increase in trading on 4 November 2026, with October Group revenue reaching approximately £4.1 million and repeat orders becoming a much more meaningful part of the business.

The figures in the original company announcement are unaudited. They show encouraging commercial momentum, but investors still need to watch working capital, profitability and the sustainability of customer retention as the business scales.

October's key figures

Metric	October 2026	September 2026	Change
Group revenue	Approximately £4.1 million	Approximately £3.2 million	Approximately 28%*
New Health revenue	£3.63 million	£2.73 million	33%
New Health repeat-order revenue	£1.34 million	£0.63 million	More than doubled
Repeat orders as a share of New Health revenue	37%	23%	14 percentage points
Repeat and recurring Group revenue	Approximately £1.8 million	Not disclosed	45% of October revenue
New Health orders	29,450	Not disclosed	Not disclosed
Customers served since July marketing launch	More than 53,000	More than 33,500 at 30 September	Not directly comparable
Cash, receivables and stock	Approximately £6.2 million	Approximately £6.4 million at 6 October	Down approximately £0.2 million

*Analyst calculation: approximately £4.1 million divided by approximately £3.2 million, less one. This is not a company-reported growth percentage.

The headline growth is significant. New Health, MedPal's dedicated GLP-1 weight-management clinic, produced £3.63 million of October revenue from 29,450 orders. That was 33% higher than September's £2.73 million.

Group revenue rose from approximately £3.2 million to approximately £4.1 million. My calculation puts the month-on-month increase at roughly 28%, although the rounded source figures mean this should be treated as an approximation.

Repeat orders are the most important development

The standout number is not simply total revenue. It is the increase in revenue from returning customers.

New Health repeat-order revenue rose from £0.63 million in September to £1.34 million in October. It has also increased more than thirteen-fold from approximately £0.1 million in August, the operation's first full month of trading.

Repeat orders accounted for 37% of New Health revenue, compared with 23% in September. Across the wider Group, repeat orders and recurring subscriptions contributed approximately £1.8 million, or 45% of October revenue. This included New Health repeat orders, NHS prescriptions and eMARx subscriptions.

That matters because repeat orders carry no acquisition cost, according to the company. Their average order value was also approximately 23% higher than first orders.

MedPal said 46% of customers whose 28-day re-order became due during October placed another order. This is an early retention indicator rather than proof of a settled long-term pattern, as the customer base has only recently been built. The Board plans to keep reporting the measure as that base matures.

For investors following the company's development, this is a useful progression from the earlier MedPal AI July trading update.

What does the £49 million run rate mean?

MedPal reported a Group annualised revenue run rate of more than £49 million, up from more than £38 million for September.

An annualised run rate takes revenue from one month and multiplies it by 12. Using October's approximate £4.1 million of Group revenue gives:

£4.1 million x 12 = approximately £49.2 million

This is a calculation based on October trading, not a forecast of revenue for the next 12 months. The company explicitly describes it as a pro forma metric and says it is not a forecast.

That distinction is important. Monthly revenue could rise or fall because of customer demand, competition, pricing, medicine availability or operational constraints. The run rate is still helpful as a snapshot of current scale, but investors should not treat it as guaranteed annual turnover.

Operations are expanding to support demand

New Health served almost 20,000 new customers during October and has served more than 53,000 since marketing began on 1 July 2026.

To support order growth, customer services and prescribing now operate seven days a week. Pharmacy dispensing runs six days a week, while Sunday delivery has been added.

The expanded GLP-1 line at Sarus Court is expected to open in late November 2026. Management says this will increase dispensing capacity to 14,000 orders per day.

MedPal is also using its Juno AI agent in customer support. During October, Juno sent 91% of New Health's WhatsApp replies, with 85% of conversations handled without human involvement.

This could help the company process higher volumes without customer-service staffing increasing at the same rate. However, the RNS does not disclose the financial savings, implementation costs or effect on customer satisfaction.

The balance-sheet detail needs attention

Cash, receivables and stock totalled approximately £6.2 million at 31 October, compared with approximately £6.4 million on 6 October.

The composition of that figure matters:

• Cash was approximately £2.0 million, including more than £0.5 million due from the card-payment processor.
• VAT recoverable from HMRC was approximately £2.5 million.
• October NHS prescription income of approximately £0.4 million was expected in the second week of November.
• Estimated manufacturer rebates of approximately £0.5 million were also expected in that period.
• Medication stock at cost was approximately £0.75 million.

This is not the same as holding £6.2 million of unrestricted cash. A sizeable portion consists of receivables, recoverable VAT and inventory.

Meanwhile, MedPal is investing in facilities, its team and stock. Discussions over a working-capital facility are continuing, with indicative term sheets received from several lenders. The size, pricing, conditions and timing of any facility were not disclosed.

The financing discussions do not automatically signal a problem. Rapid revenue growth can consume working capital because stock and operating capacity often need funding before all related cash is collected. Even so, securing suitable financing is an important execution point.

Positives and risks for MedPal investors

The main positives are clear:

• New Health revenue grew 33% month on month.
• Repeat-order revenue more than doubled.
• Repeat and recurring revenue reached 45% of Group revenue.
• Repeat orders have no acquisition cost and achieved a higher average order value.
• Capacity and service availability are being expanded.
• Juno is handling most WhatsApp conversations without human involvement.

The main uncertainties are equally important:

• Profit, gross margin and cash flow were not disclosed.
• The £49 million run rate is not a forecast.
• Customer retention data remains immature.
• The Group is investing to support growth.
• Much of the reported £6.2 million resource position was not held as cash.
• Working-capital facility terms have not yet been agreed or announced.

Investors can follow future announcements and company coverage on the MedPal AI PLC share page.

Repeat behaviour now matters more than launch momentum

October was another strong revenue month, but the increasing contribution from existing customers is the more meaningful signal. If repeat ordering continues to build, MedPal could become less dependent on constant new-customer acquisition.

The next evidence investors need is not another annualised run-rate headline alone. It is continued disclosure on re-order rates, margins, operating cash flow and the proposed working-capital facility. Those figures will show whether rapid sales growth is translating into a financially durable business.