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Old Mutual forecasts 19-39% surge in adjusted earnings for H1 2025, though IFRS profits dip on Zimbabwe accounting changes. Core performance remains strong.
This article covers information on Old Mutual Limited.
LON:OMUOld Mutual’s latest trading statement points to a robust first half for 2025 on the measures management emphasises, with adjusted headline earnings and results from operations both up solidly. The flip side: IFRS profit and headline earnings are down year-on-year because of Zimbabwe accounting changes. This split matters – it tells us the underlying engine is running well, but statutory numbers wear a one-off dent.
Final interim results land on Wednesday, 10 September 2025, with a webcast at 11:00 South African time. The figures below are ranges for the six months to 30 June 2025 versus the prior period.
| Key performance indicator | H1 2025 guidance | H1 2024 actual | Estimated change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Results from operations (R million) | 4,498 to 5,346 | 4,243 | +6% to +26% |
| Results from operations per share (cents) | 104.1 to 123.2 | 95.5 | +9% to +29% |
| Adjusted headline earnings (R million) | 3,888 to 4,541 | 3,267 | +19% to +39% |
| Adjusted headline EPS (cents) | 88.9 to 103.6 | 73.5 | +21% to +41% |
| Headline earnings (R million) | 3,553 to 4,718 | 5,825 | -39% to -19% |
| HEPS (cents) | 84.2 to 110.9 | 133.6 | -37% to -17% |
| IFRS profit after tax (R million) | 3,616 to 4,612 | 5,241 | -31% to -12% |
| Basic EPS (cents) | 84.1 to 108.2 | 120.2 | -30% to -10% |
Old Mutual’s “adjusted headline earnings” is the Group’s primary profit metric. It strips out items management considers not reflective of ongoing performance, and it excludes Zimbabwe profits due to restrictions on accessing capital by way of dividends. On this measure, the business looks in good shape: growth of 19% to 39% is a strong print, helped by better shareholder investment returns as South African and Malawian equity markets outperformed expected returns.
By contrast, headline earnings and IFRS profit are down because of Zimbabwe. The Group implemented a change in functional currency from Zimbabwe Gold to the US dollar from 1 July 2024, which drove an approximately R2.2 billion reduction in Zimbabwe profits. Management notes this had limited impact on net asset value thanks to lower currency translation losses going through equity, but it does pull down IFRS and headline earnings in the period. Crucially, this has no impact on adjusted headline earnings.
Results from operations – the primary measure of operating performance across segments – are up 6% to 26%. The statement credits:
On the less helpful side, there were headwinds from a persistency basis change in the Mass and Foundation Cluster (persistency is how long customers keep policies in force) and higher central costs, including a once-off restructuring provision to reduce future spending.
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Per-share metrics look even better than the absolute figures. That is not just operational progress – it is also arithmetic. The 2024 share repurchase programme reduced the weighted average number of ordinary shares to 4,270 million at 30 June 2025, down from 4,359 million a year ago. Fewer shares mean each remaining share captures a larger slice of earnings.
That is why results from operations per share are guided up 9% to 29%, and adjusted headline EPS up 21% to 41%, outpacing the growth in the underlying totals.
Two figures are likely to anchor sentiment:
These speak directly to recurring profitability. If the outturn lands toward the top end, the market may reward Old Mutual with a higher multiple, provided the quality of earnings and cash generation stack up. If it lands at the low end, the share price reaction may be more muted given the IFRS declines in the same period.
The financial information in this trading statement is the board’s responsibility and has not been reviewed or reported on by the external auditors. Interim results will be released on 10 September 2025, with a webcast and Q&A at 11:00 South African time. Access numbers for recorded playback are provided in the RNS, with the replay available until 15 September 2025.
On balance, this is a positive update. Adjusted earnings growth of up to 39% and strong results from operations suggest the core franchise is delivering. The buyback has amplified per-share progress, which is what shareholders actually bank.
The negatives are well flagged: IFRS and headline earnings are down because of Zimbabwe, and there are some assumption and cost headwinds. Those are manageable if the insurance momentum and investment returns hold. I will be watching for detail on the sustainability of Old Mutual Insure’s performance, the expected benefits from restructuring, and how management frames capital allocation for the rest of 2025.
For now, the guidance tilts bullish on the metrics that matter most to management – and arguably to long-term investors.
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