Playtech Upgrades FY25 EBITDA Forecast on Strong Americas Performance

Playtech lifts FY25 Adjusted EBITDA outlook on US and Mexico momentum

Playtech has upgraded its full-year 2025 profit expectations after a strong fourth quarter in the Americas, notably the US and Mexico. The company now expects Adjusted EBITDA for FY25 to be at least €195 million, which is clearly ahead of market expectations.

To put that in context, the prior analyst consensus was a mean of €177 million across eight analysts, with a range of €150 million to €187 million. On the midpoint, Playtech is signalling an uplift of about €18 million versus the mean – roughly a 10% beat – and, importantly, the tone suggests this is driven by higher quality, regulated revenue streams.

Key numbers from the trading update

Metric	Detail
FY25 Adjusted EBITDA (subject to audit)	At least €195 million
Analyst consensus (pre-update)	Mean €177 million across 8 analysts (range €150 million – €187 million)
Implied beat vs mean consensus	€18 million (+c.10%)
Geographies highlighted	US and Mexico drove Q4 outperformance
2026 stance	Mindful of higher gambling taxes in some markets, including the UK, but enters 2026 with good momentum
Medium-term targets reaffirmed	€250-300 million Adjusted EBITDA and €70-100 million Free Cash Flow
Adjusted EBITDA composition	Includes HAPPYBET operating loss and share of income from associates, notably a 30.8% stake in Caliente Interactive
Excluded from FY25 Adjusted EBITDA	Snaitech contribution is excluded for the period it was owned in FY25

Why this upgrade matters for shareholders

Upgrades that arrive late in the year, driven by trading rather than cost-cutting, tend to be well received. Playtech’s beat is anchored in the Americas, with US and Mexico cited as the growth engines in Q4. That matters because these are regulated markets where scale and product depth can drive durable revenue rather than short-lived spikes.

The company also flags that the returns on prior years’ investments are now “accelerating”. In plain English: the money spent building out platforms, content and partnerships across the Americas is beginning to show up more visibly in profitability.

Quality of earnings: helpful inclusions and exclusions

Playtech’s Adjusted EBITDA includes two important items: the operating loss of HAPPYBET and associate income, notably from its 30.8% shareholding in Caliente Interactive. Including a loss-making unit makes the headline number more conservative, and including associate income reflects the growing importance of equity-accounted stakes in the Americas ecosystem.

On the flip side, the company has excluded Snaitech’s contribution for the period it was owned in FY25. That makes comparisons cleaner for investors focused on the ongoing business. The net effect is a clearer picture of the core, post-Snaitech Playtech – and that picture has just got brighter.

2026 outlook: momentum meets tax headwinds

Management is sensibly cautious about sector headwinds in 2026, pointing to scheduled increases in gambling taxes in certain markets, including the UK. Higher taxes can squeeze operating margins and dampen customer promotions, so it is right to flag this.

Even so, the company says Q4 revenue trends in the Americas give it good momentum into the new year. Crucially, it reiterates medium-term targets of €250-300 million in Adjusted EBITDA and €70-100 million in Free Cash Flow. Holding those targets post-upgrade signals confidence that the step-up in the Americas is not a one-quarter wonder.

Quick jargon check

• Adjusted EBITDA: A measure of operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, adjusted for certain items. It is a common cash proxy, though it is not the same as cash flow.
• Free Cash Flow: Cash generated after operating costs and capital expenditure. This is what can be used for debt reduction, dividends or reinvestment.
• Associates: Companies where Playtech owns a significant stake (like 30.8% in Caliente Interactive) but does not control them. Playtech records its share of their profit.
• Subject to audit: Preliminary figure that may move modestly once the auditors complete their work.
• Inside information: Market-sensitive information. Once published via RNS, it becomes public.

CEO’s message: investment paying off in the Americas

Mor Weizer’s comments are upbeat. He highlights multiple years of steady investment across the US and the wider Americas, with benefits “accelerating and flow[ing] through to profitability”. The strategy remains to invest selectively in the US and elsewhere in the Americas where additional growth opportunities are identified.

The balance of the message is sensible: acknowledge sector headwinds, but lean into momentum. It strikes the right tone for a company moving from build to monetise in regulated markets.

What I am watching next

• Audit confirmation: Whether “at least €195 million” tightens higher on audit or lands at that floor.
• Americas cadence: Any colour on Q1 2026 trading to see if Q4’s US and Mexico strength continues.
• Associate income detail: More granularity on contributions from Caliente Interactive.
• HAPPYBET trajectory: Whether losses narrow, stabilise or require further action.
• Tax uplift impact: Quantification of UK and other market tax increases on 2026 margins.
• Comparatives without Snaitech: Additional disclosure to help investors track the ongoing business on a like-for-like basis.

My take: a clean upgrade with improving mix

This is a positive and tidy upgrade. Beating a €177 million consensus to “at least €195 million” underscores both better-than-expected Q4 execution and the payoff from years of investment in the Americas. Including HAPPYBET’s loss in Adjusted EBITDA adds credibility to the number, while excluding Snaitech clarifies the shape of the continuing operations.

The caution flag is rightly up for 2026 tax increases, especially in the UK. That said, reaffirmed medium-term targets and talk of accelerating returns point to a business leaning into regulated growth where Playtech’s platform and content can differentiate.

Bottom line: momentum into 2026, a higher-quality regional mix, and targets intact. The next catalysts are audited results and any early 2026 trading colour to confirm that Q4’s strength is the new run-rate rather than a year-end blip.

Quick background: who is Playtech?

Playtech, founded in 1999 and listed on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, supplies business intelligence-driven gambling software, services, content and platform technology. It operates across casino, live casino, sports betting, bingo and poker, and is known for its integrated omni-channel platform, Playtech ONE.

The group partners with leading brands in regulated and newly regulated markets and supplies technology to online and retail operators, land-based casino groups and government-sponsored entities such as lotteries. It employs over 7,400 people across 20 countries.