Seeing Machines hits profitability inflection as automotive volumes surge

Seeing Machines has delivered the clearest evidence yet that its automotive business is reaching scale.

For the year ended 30 June 2026, adjusted revenue rose 45% to US$76.3 million, while automotive production volumes nearly tripled to 4.49 million vehicles. More importantly, the company expects to report positive adjusted EBITDA of between US$10.7 million and US$11.7 million for the second half.

That marks a sharp turnaround from the US$13.7 million adjusted EBITDA loss recorded in the first half. It also supports management's argument that higher-margin automotive royalties can create meaningful operating leverage as vehicle volumes increase.

The numbers are unaudited, with full-year results expected before the end of September 2026. Investors can read the original company announcement for the complete KPI tables and accounting notes.

Seeing Machines' FY2026 figures at a glance

Metric	FY2026	Comparison
Adjusted revenue	US$76.3 million	Up 45%
H2 adjusted revenue	US$52.9 million	Up 126% versus H1
Adjusted automotive royalty revenue	US$33.9 million	Up 135%
Guardian annual recurring revenue	US$15.0 million	Up 12%
Automotive production volumes	4,485,942	Up 195%
Expected FY adjusted EBITDA loss	US$2.0 million to US$3.0 million	Not disclosed
Expected H2 adjusted EBITDA	US$10.7 million to US$11.7 million	H1 loss of US$13.7 million
Year-end cash	US$4.3 million	US$3.4 million at 31 December 2025

Adjusted EBITDA means earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, with further adjustments intended to show underlying trading performance.

The expected full-year adjusted EBITDA loss of US$2.0 million to US$3.0 million is better than the US$3.9 million consensus loss stated in the announcement.

Adjusted revenue was reported as being in line with expectations. However, the announcement also lists consensus revenue of US$79.7 million, compared with the reported adjusted revenue figure of US$76.3 million. No further reconciliation between those figures was disclosed.

Automotive royalties are changing the financial profile

The most important feature is not simply revenue growth, but where that revenue came from.

Adjusted automotive royalty revenue increased 135% to US$33.9 million, excluding a US$10.0 million accelerated royalty payment linked to the Automotive Program Guarantee. Royalty income carries a stronger margin profile than hardware revenue, meaning a greater proportion of incremental sales can flow through to earnings.

This shift was particularly visible in the second half. Adjusted revenue jumped from US$23.4 million in H1 to US$52.9 million in H2, while adjusted EBITDA moved from a US$13.7 million loss to an expected profit of between US$10.7 million and US$11.7 million.

That is the profitability inflection investors have been waiting to see. The next test is whether Seeing Machines can sustain positive earnings and cash generation across a full financial year.

For context on the build-up to this point, my earlier coverage examined the company's H1 FY2026 automotive growth ahead of the EU deadline.

Record quarterly vehicle production

Vehicles produced with Seeing Machines' driver and occupant monitoring technology reached 2,112,855 during Q4. That was 64% higher than Q3 and 333% above the equivalent quarter last year.

Automotive production	Units
Q1 FY2026	510,167
Q2 FY2026	578,363
Q3 FY2026	1,284,557
Q4 FY2026	2,112,855

Second-half production totalled 3,397,412 vehicles, up 212% from the first half. The company finished the year with 8,216,143 cars on the road using its technology, 120% more than 12 months earlier.

This acceleration reflects original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, preparing for the European General Safety Regulation. The regulation came into force on 7 July 2026 and mandates camera-based driver monitoring systems in new vehicle registrations across Europe.

Seeing Machines also expanded automotive programmes worth more than US$40 million across two existing European OEM customers and secured selections with three new Japanese OEMs. These wins broaden the customer base, although the announcement did not disclose expected production dates or individual contract values for the Japanese programmes.

Guardian provides a second source of growth

Guardian, the company's monitoring technology for commercial fleets, also ended the year positively.

Q4 hardware sales reached 3,058 units, up 90% from 1,610 in Q3. Guardian annual recurring revenue, which annualises ongoing monitoring fees from installed and connected units, rose 12% year on year to US$15.0 million.

Seeing Machines secured a deployment of approximately 1,100 Guardian units with a leading US multinational company. It also received US$5.6 million of Guardian backup driver monitoring system orders from an existing robotaxi customer, supporting the establishment of its Future Mobility Group.

This provides useful diversification beyond passenger vehicle royalties. However, Guardian's 12% recurring revenue growth was considerably slower than the 135% increase in adjusted automotive royalty revenue.

Cash improved, but receivables require attention

Cash increased from US$3.4 million at the end of December to US$4.3 million at 30 June, with no drawdown from available funding facilities. Cash flow was positive during the second half.

The less comfortable number is the rise in trade receivables and royalties owed, from US$11.6 million to US$25.3 million. Management attributed this to strong Q4 automotive royalty growth and customer payment cycles.

That explanation is reasonable within the information disclosed, but collection remains important. At US$4.3 million, the year-end cash balance offers limited room if payments arrive later than expected or trading momentum weakens.

There is also a near-term financing issue. Seeing Machines is in an exclusive negotiation period after agreeing indicative terms to refinance its Convertible Loan Note before the obligation matures on 4 October 2026.

Indicative terms are not the same as a completed refinancing. The amount, cost and detailed terms were not disclosed, making this the clearest immediate risk in the update.

What investors should watch in FY2027

The positives are substantial: record production, rapid royalty growth, positive second-half cash flow and a move into adjusted EBITDA profitability. The regulatory backdrop is now active, rather than merely approaching, and the Q4 production run-rate was materially higher than earlier in the year.

The main questions are whether that run-rate can be maintained, whether receivables convert into cash promptly and whether the Convertible Loan Note is refinanced on acceptable terms.

Seeing Machines has reached an important operational milestone. The audited results should show how firmly that progress rests on recurring cash generation, while the October debt maturity means the refinancing outcome will be just as important as the next production update.